Arizona... 2020 fluke?

[MargieCat]

Yes AZ has joined the 291/247 blue wall and Sinema and Kelly should be reelected and AZ should have a D as Gov in 2022

It will be interesting to see if Ducey can get in to the senate, assuming he runs.

I think he has a better chance of defeating Sinema in 2024 than Kelly in 2022.

[MargieCat]

I lived in Arizona. I went to college at ASU and lived in Scottsdale.

While Scottsdale was somewhat republican (mostly midwesterners and rust belt people that were socially liberal and economically conservative), I always felt like Maricopa county was more liberal than how it voted.

Obviously Mesa and Gilbert were highly LDS and conservative, as were many of the senior communities like Sun City.

But Phoenix, Tempe, and to a certain extent, Chandler were all more liberal.

I never felt like I was in a red state culturally. It always felt like a blue state.

It's no surprise to me that the state has started to vote democrat. I can see the trend continuing.

ASU, U of A, and NAU are all incubators for liberalism and much of the alumni are settling in Phoenix.

So it's no surprise to me that Arizona is joining California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and the Pacific Northwest in its voting patterns.

[MargieCat]

Not a fluke, the state is genuinely more competitive now. But Arizona will be much, much easier for Republicans to win back than Georgia. I don't see Arizona becoming a permanently democratic state ala VA and CO anytime within the next decade.
On the other hand, the GOP will be finished in Georgia very soon.

As long as Maricopa county is carried by a democrat, then the whole state goes democrat.

Pima County has long been a democratic stronghold, but it was always cancelled out by larger more republican Maricopa County.

But if the democrats net more votes out of Maricopa County or even an equal number to the republicans, then Pima County, Coconino, Santa Cruz, etc put the democrats over the edge.

[MargieCat]

Not a fluke, the state is genuinely more competitive now. But Arizona will be much, much easier for Republicans to win back than Georgia. I don't see Arizona becoming a permanently democratic state ala VA and CO anytime within the next decade.
On the other hand, the GOP will be finished in Georgia very soon.

As long as Maricopa county is carried by a democrat, then the whole state goes democrat.

Pima County has long been a democratic stronghold, but it was always cancelled out by larger more republican Maricopa County.

But if the democrats net more votes out of Maricopa County or even an equal number to the republicans, then Pima County, Coconino, Santa Cruz, etc put the democrats over the edge.

Republicans could in theory lose Maricopa by a percent or two and still win statewide, but the nature of the county being all encompassing of the inner core, suburbs, exurbs, and rural desert makes it close to a bellweather for the state unlike anything we see in other states.

The democrats netted twice as many votes out of Pima County than they did out of Maricopa County. On top of Maricopa and Pima, they also carried Apache, Coconino, and Santa Cruz counties.

Republicans NEED to carry Maricopa County if they want to carry the state of Arizona. Or find a way to depress democratic turnout in the other parts of the state.