AZ being this close (for both PRES and SEN) was one of the most surprising results of the election, honestly. For now, there’s more than enough uncertain variables here (potential R gains with Latinos, state becoming more of a retiree destination, heat waves/climate change, slight R gains with college-educated whites under Biden, rapid growth/out-of-state migration with somewhat uncertain migration patterns, etc.) for me to hold off on calling it the next CO/VA. I could see AZ turning into a slightly more Democratic version of NV (consistent but by no means insurmountable D lean) but I think the political future of GA is far more certain at this point. Heck, Mohave County even swung R.
That said, Republicans will have to stop the bleeding in Maricopa/Pima even if the D swing wasn’t that strong this year for the state to remain competitive.
I wouldn’t call it that surprising. The polls in AZ were never as pro-Biden as they were in the Midwest trio. The AZ polls only showed him up by 2 or 3 points. I always thought he’d win AZ by a fairly small margin (though like 2 points instead of less than 1).
