Arizona... 2020 fluke?

[MT Treasurer]

AZ being this close (for both PRES and SEN) was one of the most surprising results of the election, honestly. For now, there’s more than enough uncertain variables here (potential R gains with Latinos, state becoming more of a retiree destination, heat waves/climate change, slight R gains with college-educated whites under Biden, rapid growth/out-of-state migration with somewhat uncertain migration patterns, etc.) for me to hold off on calling it the next CO/VA. I could see AZ turning into a slightly more Democratic version of NV (consistent but by no means insurmountable D lean) but I think the political future of GA is far more certain at this point. Heck, Mohave County even swung R.

That said, Republicans will have to stop the bleeding in Maricopa/Pima even if the D swing wasn’t that strong this year for the state to remain competitive.

[MT Treasurer]

^Yes, I’ve already admitted that I jumped the gun on AZ, so your constant ‘rub it in their faces’/‘stick it to the hive mind’ shtick accomplishes virtually nothing and I’m (reluctantly) putting you on ignore now. I was hesitant at first because you generally provide valuable/interesting/thoughtful contributions to this forum (which you’re absolutely right to call out for its Democratic bias) and I’m probably closer to you ideologically than most other green avatars here, but it got really old after the first 500 times and I already have 280 alerts. We all make bad predictions/push premature narratives (as do you sometimes) but I suggest getting over your obsession with me in particular. Believe it or not, there’s plenty of other posters to ‘go after’ that fit your impression of me (smug, sarcastic, part of the hive mind, etc.).

I could mock your analysis about NH being some unpredictable, swingy, independent state that Trump had a better shot at than WI/MI/PA in 2016 and that’s proven its status as one of the most elastic states at the federal level this year even though it has an all-D Congressional delegation, Ayotte couldn’t even win in 2016, Shaheen did better than Warner in 2014 and was the only Democrat to survive a race which was actually targeted by the NRSC, etc., but why bother?