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December 01, 2020, 04:45:06 PM
News: 2020 Election day live thread: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=409870.0

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: VirginiŠ)
  Arizona... 2020 fluke?
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Author Topic: Arizona... 2020 fluke?  (Read 2015 times)
MargieCat
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« Reply #25 on: November 16, 2020, 08:41:04 PM »

Yes AZ has joined the 291/247 blue wall and Sinema and Kelly should be reelected and AZ should have a D as Gov in 2022
It will be interesting to see if Ducey can get in to the senate, assuming he runs.

I think he has a better chance of defeating Sinema in 2024 than Kelly in 2022.
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Blairite
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« Reply #26 on: November 17, 2020, 01:01:53 AM »

Yes AZ has joined the 291/247 blue wall and Sinema and Kelly should be reelected and AZ should have a D as Gov in 2022

291? What do you see up in Maine that eludes the rest of us, Olawakandi?
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #27 on: November 17, 2020, 12:59:24 PM »

AZ being this close (for both PRES and SEN) was one of the most surprising results of the election, honestly. For now, thereís more than enough uncertain variables here (potential R gains with Latinos, state becoming more of a retiree destination, heat waves/climate change, slight R gains with college-educated whites under Biden, rapid growth/out-of-state migration with somewhat uncertain migration patterns, etc.) for me to hold off on calling it the next CO/VA. I could see AZ turning into a slightly more Democratic version of NV (consistent but by no means insurmountable D lean) but I think the political future of GA is far more certain at this point. Heck, Mohave County even swung R.

That said, Republicans will have to stop the bleeding in Maricopa/Pima even if the D swing wasnít that strong this year for the state to remain competitive.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #28 on: November 17, 2020, 01:30:56 PM »

AZ being this close (for both PRES and SEN) was one of the most surprising results of the election, honestly. For now, thereís more than enough uncertain variables here (potential R gains with Latinos, state becoming more of a retiree destination, heat waves/climate change, slight R gains with college-educated whites under Biden, rapid growth/out-of-state migration with somewhat uncertain migration patterns, etc.) for me to hold off on calling it the next CO/VA. I could see AZ turning into a slightly more Democratic version of NV (consistent but by no means insurmountable D lean) but I think the political future of GA is far more certain at this point. Heck, Mohave County even swung R.

That said, Republicans will have to stop the bleeding in Maricopa/Pima even if the D swing wasnít that strong this year for the state to remain competitive.

Surprising. I'm sure it's surprising for you.

Remember when you insinuated that I didn't care about the demographic and geographic reality of the situation? Or that I don't acknowledge the shift in the party coalitions? All because I suggested Arizona isn't GONE for Trump? You called the state Likely D and said Trump's path doesn't run through the state. Instead, he's losing it by 0.3% and his path DID run through the state.

Of course not. Only people who believe every stupid OHPI poll that comes out would think that.

More like people who care about the demographic and geographic realities of this state, which suggest an extremely unfavorable future for Republicans in our current alignment, people who acknowledge the shifts in the two parties' coalitions, and people who realize that there is no recent history of Democratic bias in pre-election polling in AZ, but okay.

In any case, if by "gone" you mean Likely D, then yes. I donít think Trump's path to 270 runs through this state.

How noble and knowledgable you must be good sir. I mean wow, the pretentiousness just reeks.

I'm not denying the "reality" of the way Arizona has gone and is going, I haven't seen many people deny that. What I'm suggesting is that the state is still close and Trump still has the possibility of winning it, and a poll that refuses to weight by education and has a host of other problems does not change that.

What I'm suggesting is it's not gone (aka: It's not Safe D, Likely D does not mean gone). But even saying that has now become too "Republican-friendly" for you to tolerate.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #29 on: November 17, 2020, 01:59:30 PM »

^Yes, Iíve already admitted that I jumped the gun on AZ, so your constant Ďrub it in their facesí/Ďstick it to the hive mindí shtick accomplishes virtually nothing and Iím (reluctantly) putting you on ignore now. I was hesitant at first because you generally provide valuable/interesting/thoughtful contributions to this forum (which youíre absolutely right to call out for its Democratic bias) and Iím probably closer to you ideologically than most other green avatars here, but it got really old after the first 500 times and I already have 280 alerts. We all make bad predictions/push premature narratives (as do you sometimes) but I suggest getting over your obsession with me in particular. Believe it or not, thereís plenty of other posters to Ďgo afterí that fit your impression of me (smug, sarcastic, part of the hive mind, etc.).

I could mock your analysis about NH being some unpredictable, swingy, independent state that Trump had a better shot at than WI/MI/PA in 2016 and thatís proven its status as one of the most elastic states at the federal level this year even though it has an all-D Congressional delegation, Ayotte couldnít even win in 2016, Shaheen did better than Warner in 2014 and was the only Democrat to survive a race which was actually targeted by the NRSC, etc., but why bother?
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Xing
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« Reply #30 on: November 17, 2020, 02:07:24 PM »

AZ going Democratic was definitely not a fluke (I don't really believe in "flukes"), given that it also has two Democratic Senators. It's not zooming left nearly as quickly as some thought, but it still is trending leftward longterm. It's still winnable for Republicans, but if they can't keep Maricopa close going forward, it's going to be a tough state for them.
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Forumlurker the anti-communist
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« Reply #31 on: November 17, 2020, 05:25:25 PM »

Arizona is Nevada now.
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Catalyst138
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« Reply #32 on: November 17, 2020, 05:41:51 PM »

AZ being this close (for both PRES and SEN) was one of the most surprising results of the election, honestly. For now, thereís more than enough uncertain variables here (potential R gains with Latinos, state becoming more of a retiree destination, heat waves/climate change, slight R gains with college-educated whites under Biden, rapid growth/out-of-state migration with somewhat uncertain migration patterns, etc.) for me to hold off on calling it the next CO/VA. I could see AZ turning into a slightly more Democratic version of NV (consistent but by no means insurmountable D lean) but I think the political future of GA is far more certain at this point. Heck, Mohave County even swung R.

That said, Republicans will have to stop the bleeding in Maricopa/Pima even if the D swing wasnít that strong this year for the state to remain competitive.

I wouldnít call it that surprising. The polls in AZ were never as pro-Biden as they were in the Midwest trio. The AZ polls only showed him up by 2 or 3 points. I always thought heíd win AZ by a fairly small margin (though like 2 points instead of less than 1).
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #33 on: November 18, 2020, 04:26:57 PM »

The Arizona Republican Party may be a dying machine that can't stave off demographic change. Dying machines support weak nominees who prove brittle targets for opponents who have fresh ideas and policies.  The GOP in Georgia might be that, too.

Hispanics, largely Mexican-Americans, are assimilating into the American middle class... and they are beginning to develop some concern for topics that usually favor Republicans among white people (taxes and immigration). Note well that many Mexican-Americans are marrying white non-Hispanic people in Arizona, and plenty of people who somehow identify as Mexican-American have a non-Mexican-American parent.

This said, Mexican-Americans generally still have patterns hostile to the GOP. Mexican-Americans are not as anti-intellectual as whites of similar economic status, and Trump's blatant anti-intellectualism is an affront to anyone who either is proud of his formal education or sees formal education as necessary for an escape from poverty.

Republicans will be wise to abandon Trump's anti-intellectualism if they want to win in non-safe bailiwicks in 2022 and later.       
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #34 on: November 18, 2020, 04:34:47 PM »

^Yes, Iíve already admitted that I jumped the gun on AZ, so your constant Ďrub it in their facesí/Ďstick it to the hive mindí shtick accomplishes virtually nothing and Iím (reluctantly) putting you on ignore now. I was hesitant at first because you generally provide valuable/interesting/thoughtful contributions to this forum (which youíre absolutely right to call out for its Democratic bias) and Iím probably closer to you ideologically than most other green avatars here, but it got really old after the first 500 times and I already have 280 alerts. We all make bad predictions/push premature narratives (as do you sometimes) but I suggest getting over your obsession with me in particular. Believe it or not, thereís plenty of other posters to Ďgo afterí that fit your impression of me (smug, sarcastic, part of the hive mind, etc.).

I could mock your analysis about NH being some unpredictable, swingy, independent state that Trump had a better shot at than WI/MI/PA in 2016 and thatís proven its status as one of the most elastic states at the federal level this year even though it has an all-D Congressional delegation, Ayotte couldnít even win in 2016, Shaheen did better than Warner in 2014 and was the only Democrat to survive a race which was actually targeted by the NRSC, etc., but why bother?

That's fine. I'll stop bringing stuff up and criticizing your past posts. But understand the reason I'm doing this. You spent months specifically responding to me, almost always in a negative way. No one, not any other person, responded to me more directly than you did. I don't typically bump threads to respond to people unless they wrongfully attack me or others. That's why I've been on your case the past few weeks moreso than some others (I don't have the "obsession" you claim I have). I go after other people too but no one was more consistently hostile to me than you were.

I don't appreciate being insulted for months and months leading up to an election for differing perspectives. That's my warning to you, don't engage with me this way again and I'll drop the criticism and we can interact with each other normally again. And I really hope that can happen again at some point because you make some good points in many of your posts.
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7sergi9
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« Reply #35 on: November 19, 2020, 03:36:47 PM »

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MargieCat
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« Reply #36 on: November 19, 2020, 04:29:01 PM »

I lived in Arizona. I went to college at ASU and lived in Scottsdale.

While Scottsdale was somewhat republican (mostly midwesterners and rust belt people that were socially liberal and economically conservative), I always felt like Maricopa county was more liberal than how it voted.

Obviously Mesa and Gilbert were highly LDS and conservative, as were many of the senior communities like Sun City.

But Phoenix, Tempe, and to a certain extent, Chandler were all more liberal.

I never felt like I was in a red state culturally. It always felt like a blue state.

It's no surprise to me that the state has started to vote democrat. I can see the trend continuing.

ASU, U of A, and NAU are all incubators for liberalism and much of the alumni are settling in Phoenix.

So it's no surprise to me that Arizona is joining California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and the Pacific Northwest in its voting patterns.
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Flyersfan232
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« Reply #37 on: November 21, 2020, 08:58:11 AM »

Yes AZ has joined the 291/247 blue wall and Sinema and Kelly should be reelected and AZ should have a D as Gov in 2022
It will be interesting to see if Ducey can get in to the senate, assuming he runs.

I think he has a better chance of defeating Sinema in 2024 than Kelly in 2022.
sinema has that seat lock down.
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #38 on: November 21, 2020, 09:32:48 AM »

The fact that Arizona will have two Democratic Senators and a Democratic Secretary of State in 2021 should tell you that Biden's likely victory was not a fluke. Arizona won't necessarily become as Democratic as Virginia and Colorado, but it will very much be a competitive state for at least the next two election cycles.
Well put.
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Forumlurker the anti-communist
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« Reply #39 on: November 22, 2020, 02:50:57 PM »

The Arizona Republican Party may be a dying machine that can't stave off demographic change. Dying machines support weak nominees who prove brittle targets for opponents who have fresh ideas and policies.  The GOP in Georgia might be that, too.

Hispanics, largely Mexican-Americans, are assimilating into the American middle class... and they are beginning to develop some concern for topics that usually favor Republicans among white people (taxes and immigration). Note well that many Mexican-Americans are marrying white non-Hispanic people in Arizona, and plenty of people who somehow identify as Mexican-American have a non-Mexican-American parent.

This said, Mexican-Americans generally still have patterns hostile to the GOP. Mexican-Americans are not as anti-intellectual as whites of similar economic status , and Trump's blatant anti-intellectualism is an affront to anyone who either is proud of his formal education or sees formal education as necessary for an escape from poverty.

Republicans will be wise to abandon Trump's anti-intellectualism if they want to win in non-safe bailiwicks in 2022 and later.       
I have a lot of trouble buying that.
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Yellowhammer
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« Reply #40 on: November 22, 2020, 03:28:10 PM »

Not a fluke, the state is genuinely more competitive now. But Arizona will be much, much easier for Republicans to win back than Georgia. I don't see Arizona becoming a permanently democratic state ala VA and CO anytime within the next decade.
On the other hand, the GOP will be finished in Georgia very soon.
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MargieCat
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« Reply #41 on: November 22, 2020, 09:32:47 PM »
« Edited: November 23, 2020, 12:51:07 AM by MargieCat »

Not a fluke, the state is genuinely more competitive now. But Arizona will be much, much easier for Republicans to win back than Georgia. I don't see Arizona becoming a permanently democratic state ala VA and CO anytime within the next decade.
On the other hand, the GOP will be finished in Georgia very soon.
As long as Maricopa county is carried by a democrat, then the whole state goes democrat.

Pima County has long been a democratic stronghold, but it was always cancelled out by larger more republican Maricopa County.

But if the democrats net more votes out of Maricopa County or even an equal number to the republicans, then Pima County, Coconino, Santa Cruz, etc put the democrats over the edge.
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Senator LouisvilleThunder
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« Reply #42 on: November 25, 2020, 06:09:10 AM »

Not a fluke, the state is genuinely more competitive now. But Arizona will be much, much easier for Republicans to win back than Georgia. I don't see Arizona becoming a permanently democratic state ala VA and CO anytime within the next decade.
On the other hand, the GOP will be finished in Georgia very soon.
As long as Maricopa county is carried by a democrat, then the whole state goes democrat.

Pima County has long been a democratic stronghold, but it was always cancelled out by larger more republican Maricopa County.

But if the democrats net more votes out of Maricopa County or even an equal number to the republicans, then Pima County, Coconino, Santa Cruz, etc put the democrats over the edge.
Republicans could in theory lose Maricopa by a percent or two and still win statewide, but the nature of the county being all encompassing of the inner core, suburbs, exurbs, and rural desert makes it close to a bellweather for the state unlike anything we see in other states.
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Chocolate Thunder
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« Reply #43 on: November 25, 2020, 08:41:24 AM »

I think with PA/WI/MI becoming harder for the Democrats and IA and OH becoming states where the median voter is a reliable Republican, it would appear to be the path of least resistance for Democrats to change their message and positions to make GA/NC/AZ harder for Republicans. So no. I don't think 2020 is a fluke unless Democrats aren't going win until once Republicans get everything they want.
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MargieCat
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« Reply #44 on: November 25, 2020, 08:38:16 PM »

Not a fluke, the state is genuinely more competitive now. But Arizona will be much, much easier for Republicans to win back than Georgia. I don't see Arizona becoming a permanently democratic state ala VA and CO anytime within the next decade.
On the other hand, the GOP will be finished in Georgia very soon.
As long as Maricopa county is carried by a democrat, then the whole state goes democrat.

Pima County has long been a democratic stronghold, but it was always cancelled out by larger more republican Maricopa County.

But if the democrats net more votes out of Maricopa County or even an equal number to the republicans, then Pima County, Coconino, Santa Cruz, etc put the democrats over the edge.
Republicans could in theory lose Maricopa by a percent or two and still win statewide, but the nature of the county being all encompassing of the inner core, suburbs, exurbs, and rural desert makes it close to a bellweather for the state unlike anything we see in other states.
The democrats netted twice as many votes out of Pima County than they did out of Maricopa County. On top of Maricopa and Pima, they also carried Apache, Coconino, and Santa Cruz counties.

Republicans NEED to carry Maricopa County if they want to carry the state of Arizona. Or find a way to depress democratic turnout in the other parts of the state.
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