In which suburban areas will the GOP recover the most/least?
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  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: 15 Down, 35 To Go)
  In which suburban areas will the GOP recover the most/least?
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Author Topic: In which suburban areas will the GOP recover the most/least?  (Read 1223 times)
VAR
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Junior Chimp
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« on: November 22, 2020, 04:00:46 PM »

I'd say...

Most: WOW, Kent County, Des Moines metro, Omaha suburbs etc.
Least: Atlanta, Richmond suburbs + Twin Cities
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Matty
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« Reply #1 on: November 22, 2020, 04:02:29 PM »

Easy answer on where they recover most: hamilton county indiana.

gop governor won it by 30 points this year. it's not an area with any sort of large demographic change.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #2 on: November 22, 2020, 04:07:30 PM »
« Edited: November 22, 2020, 05:17:27 PM by Roll Roons »

Most: North Jersey, Long Island, Philly, Orange County (CA), Houston, Dallas, Chicago, Milwaukee, Indy, Columbus, Detroit, Grand Rapids, Pittsburgh, Kansas City. Perhaps also the Bay Area and Boston, since those metro areas are so blue that there may be nowhere to go but up.

Least: Atlanta, NoVA, Twin Cities, Austin, Denver, maybe Phoenix
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S019
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« Reply #3 on: November 23, 2020, 11:30:05 PM »

Most:North Jersey, Long Island, Philly, Orange County (CA), Houston, Dallas, Chicago, Milwaukee, Indy, Columbus, Detroit, Grand Rapids, Pittsburgh, Kansas City. Perhaps also the Bay Area and Boston, since those metro areas are so blue that there may be nowhere to go but up.

Least: Atlanta, NoVA, Twin Cities, Austin, Denver, maybe Phoenix



No, a lot of these places, especially North Jersey and OC were only Republican since they promised low taxes, and now they can't even do that anymore, and Dallas is becoming a disaster for the Republicans, despite a relatively abysmal Texas performance, Joe Biden improved on O'Rourke in much of the DFW metro. I do not see a bright road ahead for Republicans in any of these three places.
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15 Down, 35 To Go
ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #4 on: November 24, 2020, 09:58:07 AM »

I expect Republicans to hold up well in Williamson County, TN post-Trump.  The days of 73-26 Romney wins may be gone (although I do think Bill Lee could crack.70% in Williamson in 2022), but I do think we have to look at suburbs where Romney had the best result of the last few decades differently from suburbs that have been trending left for decades.  In places like Williamson County, a good chunk of the swing was unique to Trump.

Assuming that 2024 is Harris vs. Generic Republican, I think WillCo will be something like 66-32 Republican (more like Hagerty in 2020) versus Trump's 62-36 margin in 2020.  Maybe even a little better than that.
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kwabbit
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« Reply #5 on: November 24, 2020, 03:54:34 PM »

Places where non-Trump Republicans still perform well will snap back the most. WOW went very hard for Scott Walker in 2018, even as Democrats excelled in the suburbs across the country. I agree about Kent snapping back. James still won it this year in the senate race. Atlanta and DFW will continue trending left.
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Suburbia
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« Reply #6 on: November 25, 2020, 01:08:52 PM »

Most: North Jersey, Long Island, Philly, Orange County (CA), Houston, Dallas, Chicago, Milwaukee, Indy, Columbus, Detroit, Grand Rapids, Pittsburgh, Kansas City. Perhaps also the Bay Area and Boston, since those metro areas are so blue that there may be nowhere to go but up.

Least: Atlanta, NoVA, Twin Cities, Austin, Denver, maybe Phoenix


With the help of Rosemary Becchi, Alexis Weik and Martina White. All are pro-LEO candidates
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