Bright spots for Democrats?

[jamestroll]

The Democratic base is now a very engaged base and with Trump no longer around his supporters and rural surge may not matter as much for the 2022 midterms.

Nah, they'll turn out. The Senate GOP will neuter any attempt at economic stimulus and Biden and the Democrats will get the blame for it.

STOP MOANING! Lets win the georgia run offs!!

[Hammy]

The Democratic base is now a very engaged base and with Trump no longer around his supporters and rural surge may not matter as much for the 2022 midterms.

I remember how engaged Dems were in 2008 too, until they weren't two years later.

[jamestroll]

The Democratic base is now a very engaged base and with Trump no longer around his supporters and rural surge may not matter as much for the 2022 midterms.

I remember how engaged Dems were in 2008 too, until they weren't two years later.

haha has anything in politics not been counterintuitive?

Democrats overperformed the dynamics in 2018 in a year in which no wave conditions exists and underperformed this year.

[Gren]

Most of these points are talking about margins in areas that were already blue; but when those don't translate downballot, like against Susan Collins, it means nothing. Those extra Biden voters in Maine clearly don't share the Democrats' goals.

To me a bright spot is where you actually win something or get something tangible. If the standard is moral victories, the Democrats' star is shining bright. Thirty points in California! But the reality of power and outcome is the bottom line.

Well, the post was aimed at analyzing electoral performance and political geography, and I think that many of the points that have been made are objectively accurate. I appreciate that you and others are making an analysis more in terms of political strategy, and that's fine, but that really wasn't the interest for me here.

[Tekken_Guy]

The Democratic base is now a very engaged base and with Trump no longer around his supporters and rural surge may not matter as much for the 2022 midterms.

I agree. Trump did to the Democratic base what Newt did to the GOP base.

[McGarnagle]

The Democratic base is now a very engaged base and with Trump no longer around his supporters and rural surge may not matter as much for the 2022 midterms.

I agree. Trump did to the Democratic base what Newt did to the GOP base.

Except our Dole appears to have won.

[Tekken_Guy]

The Democratic base is now a very engaged base and with Trump no longer around his supporters and rural surge may not matter as much for the 2022 midterms.

I agree. Trump did to the Democratic base what Newt did to the GOP base.

Except our Dole appears to have won.

Well, Clinton wasn’t super unpopular at the time.

[McGarnagle]

The Democratic base is now a very engaged base and with Trump no longer around his supporters and rural surge may not matter as much for the 2022 midterms.

I agree. Trump did to the Democratic base what Newt did to the GOP base.

Except our Dole appears to have won.

Well, Clinton wasn’t super unpopular at the time.

True

[Mr. Smith]

Most of these points are talking about margins in areas that were already blue; but when those don't translate downballot, like against Susan Collins, it means nothing. Those extra Biden voters in Maine clearly don't share the Democrats' goals.

To me a bright spot is where you actually win something or get something tangible. If the standard is moral victories, the Democrats' star is shining bright. Thirty points in California! But the reality of power and outcome is the bottom line.

Collins Manchin'd herself clearly.

Also Arizona is a pretty big get, and Georgia is not out of range just yet. Warnock might be able to plow through to defeat Loeffler in the run-off.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/RichardBSpencer/status/1323758963968520194

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Crt Packing plan that D's wanted is gonna get deferred to 2022 elections and that will the opportunity for Ds to net gain seats in the Senate, WI, PA, and NC and DC and PR statehood

[Dr. MB]

I'm really happy with what happened in Oregon and Washington. A lot of the areas that swung hard to Trump  (especially in coastal parts of Washington and northwest Oregon) either flipped back or came really close to doing so. Biden's really popular out here. I guess my own perceptions of the election were skewed by all the Biden enthusiasm I've seen here and assumed it would transfer to the rest of the country. Guess not.

[Non Swing Voter]

Wow this was peak Atlas doomerism.  Dems all upset over an election in which they won the WH and eventually took back the senate.  I guess the polls got peoples hopes up too high or something.

[Mr.Phips]

Wow this was peak Atlas doomerism.  Dems all upset over an election in which they won the WH and eventually took back the senate.  I guess the polls got peoples hopes up too high or something.

The doomerism was more about the future of the 2020s, which will likely end up being correct.

[Non Swing Voter]

Wow this was peak Atlas doomerism.  Dems all upset over an election in which they won the WH and eventually took back the senate.  I guess the polls got peoples hopes up too high or something.

The doomerism was more about the future of the 2020s, which will likely end up being correct.

Yeah not seeing that.  GOP slightly improved with low propensity hispanic voters.  Dems improved with highly educated, high propensity, suburban voters.  It's clear which is better for the 2020's.

[Mr.Phips]

Wow this was peak Atlas doomerism.  Dems all upset over an election in which they won the WH and eventually took back the senate.  I guess the polls got peoples hopes up too high or something.

The doomerism was more about the future of the 2020s, which will likely end up being correct.

Yeah not seeing that.  GOP slightly improved with low propensity hispanic voters.  Dems improved with highly educated, high propensity, suburban voters.  It's clear which is better for the 2020's.

Will those highly educated suburban voters stick with Dems without Trump in the White House?  Virginia will answer that this November.

[MT Treasurer]

Will those highly educated suburban voters stick with Dems without Trump in the White House?  Virginia will answer that this November.

Those "highly educated suburban voters" in VA were considerably more Democratic than other "highly educated suburban voters" in other (actually competitive or traditionally R) states even before Trump, so no, it won’t.

[Mr.Phips]

Will those highly educated suburban voters stick with Dems without Trump in the White House?  Virginia will answer that this November.

Those "highly educated suburban voters" in VA were considerably more Democratic than other "highly educated suburban voters" in other (actually competitive or traditionally R) states even before Trump, so no, it won’t.

Didn’t the voters that you are referring to vote for Biden but generally vote Republican downballot even in 2020 (except for maybe Mark Kelly and Abigail Spanberger)? 

[jamestroll]

Will those highly educated suburban voters stick with Dems without Trump in the White House?  Virginia will answer that this November.

Those "highly educated suburban voters" in VA were considerably more Democratic than other "highly educated suburban voters" in other (actually competitive or traditionally R) states even before Trump, so no, it won’t.

Didn’t the voters that you are referring to vote for Biden but generally vote Republican downballot even in 2020 (except for maybe Mark Kelly and Abigail Spanberger)? 

I mean those highly educated voters in VA voted quite Democratic down ballot for a while now. Even in 2014, Mark Warner apparently won Mclean, Virginia.

[Mr.Phips]

Will those highly educated suburban voters stick with Dems without Trump in the White House?  Virginia will answer that this November.

Those "highly educated suburban voters" in VA were considerably more Democratic than other "highly educated suburban voters" in other (actually competitive or traditionally R) states even before Trump, so no, it won’t.

Didn’t the voters that you are referring to vote for Biden but generally vote Republican downballot even in 2020 (except for maybe Mark Kelly and Abigail Spanberger)? 

I mean those highly educated voters in VA voted quite Democratic down ballot for a while now. Even in 2014, Mark Warner apparently won Mclean, Virginia.

Yes Virginia ones have been (as MT Treasurer stated), but many highly educated voters in other places that voted for Biden did not vote Dem downballot in 2020. I’m thinking of places like NE-02, WOW in Wisconsin, Olmsted county (Rochester) Minnesota (costing Dems the state senate there), suburban Dallas and Houston (costing Dems the state House and a House seat there), suburban St Louis (costing Dems a House and State Senate seat there), suburban Pittsburgh (costing Dems a state House and Senate seat there).

[Non Swing Voter]

Will those highly educated suburban voters stick with Dems without Trump in the White House?  Virginia will answer that this November.

Those "highly educated suburban voters" in VA were considerably more Democratic than other "highly educated suburban voters" in other (actually competitive or traditionally R) states even before Trump, so no, it won’t.

Didn’t the voters that you are referring to vote for Biden but generally vote Republican downballot even in 2020 (except for maybe Mark Kelly and Abigail Spanberger)? 

You're talking to someone who has probably never set foot in Virginia, has no understanding of it's politics, and thinks Arlington is in Fairfax County.

[Non Swing Voter]

Wow this was peak Atlas doomerism.  Dems all upset over an election in which they won the WH and eventually took back the senate.  I guess the polls got peoples hopes up too high or something.

The doomerism was more about the future of the 2020s, which will likely end up being correct.

Yeah not seeing that.  GOP slightly improved with low propensity hispanic voters.  Dems improved with highly educated, high propensity, suburban voters.  It's clear which is better for the 2020's.

Will those highly educated suburban voters stick with Dems without Trump in the White House?  Virginia will answer that this November.

Yes.  MT Treasurer's incorrect predictions aside, educated voters don't tend to like a party that doesn't take vaccines seriously, thinks the world was created in 7 days, and wants to outlaw abortions.

[MT Treasurer]

Will those highly educated suburban voters stick with Dems without Trump in the White House?  Virginia will answer that this November.

Those "highly educated suburban voters" in VA were considerably more Democratic than other "highly educated suburban voters" in other (actually competitive or traditionally R) states even before Trump, so no, it won’t.

Didn’t the voters that you are referring to vote for Biden but generally vote Republican downballot even in 2020 (except for maybe Mark Kelly and Abigail Spanberger)?  

I mean those highly educated voters in VA voted quite Democratic down ballot for a while now. Even in 2014, Mark Warner apparently won Mclean, Virginia.

Yes Virginia ones have been (as MT Treasurer stated), but many highly educated voters in other places that voted for Biden did not vote Dem downballot in 2020. I’m thinking of places like NE-02, WOW in Wisconsin, Olmsted county (Rochester) Minnesota (costing Dems the state senate there), suburban Dallas and Houston (costing Dems the state House and a House seat there), suburban St Louis (costing Dems a House and State Senate seat there), suburban Pittsburgh (costing Dems a state House and Senate seat there).

Yes, I don’t disagree, but my point was that we can’t really extrapolate preferences/trends among suburban voters in those places from suburban trends in VA. VA is much closer to an Atlanta-type situation (although certainly not quite as extreme) where there’s not much split-ticket voting and the suburban areas are very reliably D up and down the ballot due to a large presence of government workers, an unusually large transient population, the closeness to the most liberal metro in the country, generational turnover (this is an especially important factor in the South), and a sizable non-white population. NoVA and Henrico County are not your average competitive-ish middle-class suburbs that are comparable to a place like Bucks County, PA or Omaha, NE. I’m not saying that they’re all reliable Democrats or that there won’t be any interesting shifts at all, but Democrats could hold up fairly well in metro VA and still lose substantial ground in other suburban areas in other states. It’s just not a bellwether state.