I will now accept my accolades megathread

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

For virtually the whole campaign I had Georgia > North Carolina > Florida in my prediction from left-to-right thanks to the wise words of wisdom from Adam Griffin on North Carolina. Nate Silver's snake and the CW that it would be different constantly bothered me.

Unfortunately I left them all D on the final version though the latter two as toss-ups. Suspect it will still score decently this time around when Leip scores 'em. 'specially if AZ stays D and PA goes D.

[Xeuma]

If the current leads hold, I’ll have only missed Wisconsin and Nebraska’s 2nd. I suspect I’ll have also missed Pennsylvania when all is said and done.

[Asta]

I haven't made an official prediction but the closest I came to was in the thread: where do you feel more confident and less confident than Atlas?

-More confident about Biden losing OH, IA and TX, particularly TX. Beto ran an outstanding campaign by visiting every county. Biden won't replicate it without stronger ground game.

-Slightly more confident about Biden losing NC, GA and FL.

-AZ, NH, MI, WI and PA are states I roughly agree with Atlas on.

Deep down I knew Biden would lose TX by 4-5% or more. Beto was an outstanding candidate. IA and OH I knew were easily gone for Democrats once you adjust for polling error.

I was roughly accurate on Biden being quite likely to lose the south, though he may have a shot in GA after Atlanta votes come in.

After all is said and done, the only region Biden would win despite a huge polling error were the Midwestern states and possibly AZ.

[John Dule]

Perhaps it's still to early to say for sure, but I'm confident I'll end up getting some accolades on this, which I have said many times on this site:

Pennsylvania. It's the only one of the three where turnout was actually up in 2016.

[Kuumo]

I think that these are my takes that have aged the best so far:

Will we know who won on election night?

This question is basically asking: "Will Biden win Florida?" I voted no.

IA-Selzer: Shrill Joni +4

This is why I never bought into the hype about Greenfield in Iowa. At the end of day, trends are usually real, and the Iowa is not the state it was in 2012. Joni Ernst and Trump will both win Iowa by at least 5 points on election day.

If Democrats blow one of the Senate races in ME or NC, their only realistic backup is GA-regular. You heard it here first.

Is Selzer an outlier or is it a warning sign?

I think it's a warning sign and shows that Biden cannot win Iowa and his support in Wisconsin may be overstated, probably not enough for him to lose it, but he is certainly not up 17.

[Gren]

Well, I've been saying for a while that I was sure Biden would win MI and WI. If you only need a 1 point swing to flip the state, and you're getting 3, 4, 5, 6 percent or larger swings in populated counties which have already reported all their votes, you're winning. Swings towards Trump in rural counties were negligible and not enough to offset the trend. I just feel like some people had forgotten how close these states were in 2016.

This is the same reason why I have been so confident as regards PA. Biden has improved significantly on Clinton's result in some important areas. And, as hours pass by, he's advancing quickly in the Philly area and Pittsburg.

I'm also growing confident about GA. Let's hope my predictions hold.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=330351

[cvparty]

idk if i ever vocalized it on the forum but i believed CO would vote to the left of NM. CO barely trended D in 2016 for such a highly educated state, so i expected it to swing hard against trump in 2020. also, i believed NM/hispanics would trend R (looks like NM itself might not trend R though, maybe due to the gary johnson factor?)

also, i was confident HI would trend/swing toward trump despite biden's association with obama and looks like i was right about that

[W]

Loss of Rose, Torres Small, Horn, GA-07 flip, Ernst winning, all but FL GA NC and ME-02 at the prez level, Senator Ernst, all but ME and NC senate races (I have Ossoff losing and Warnock winning, may alter that), every governor's race.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Two days ago I issued the hot take that Biden will lose PA but win the election and if that really comes to pass I will of course be willing to accept my accolades.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=409802.msg7719464#msg7719464

Turns out I was wrong which I'm fairly happy about.

[VAR]

I was also right about Al Gross being an unappealing disaster candidate.

[politicallefty]

I felt very confident about Minnesota (see my post in the megathread). I did say a couple months ago that it's the Democratic mirror of Georgia or Texas. It's probably the mirror for South Carolina. The MSP metro area is a big enough area of the state and trending enough to counteract the rural trends in the state.

I can't claim I did a good job predicting this election. I did great in 2012 and terribly in 2016. Overall, my prediction was closer to 2012 great than 2016 terrible. I was predicting/hoping for a 407-131 map. The late trend had me sour on Iowa for Biden. Otherwise, it looks like I got 4 states wrong (FL, OH, TX, and NC). NC will be very close, so not a huge miss. Florida is Florida. I never trusted it and never counted on it (nor should any Democrat ever). I should've trusted my gut there. I clearly overestimated the suburban shift in Texas and never foresaw what happened in the RGV. That was very disappointing and Democrats need to figure that out ASAP. Ohio was probably a stretch, but I didn't expect Trump to do as well he did across the Rust Belt (although it's another state where the big college-educated suburban shift failed to materialize as expected). I'm absolutely stunned that Trump won Mahoning County. Apart from a slight suburban swing to Biden in Ohio, most of the state swung even more to Trump, especially the Southeastern part of the state.

While I didn't get the margins right, I was always optimistic about Arizona and I had late optimism about Georgia. I'm a little disappointed that Arizona's got this close (especially the Senate race, where I expected a huge victory for Mark Kelly). And, while I did put Georgia in Biden's column, it's quite something to actually see it happen. The Democratic Party definitely owes a deep debt of gratitude to Stacey Abrams. Hopefully, the gains that have been made can be even more fully realized in the January runoffs that will determine control of the Senate.

[Meclazine for Israel]

I was going to bet twice as much on Biden, but then a friend reminded me that Donald Trump was still a very strong candidate, and the incumbent would likely win, so I backed off 50%.

My girlfriend took a quarter of the bet with no money down. So I ended up with 37.5% down on what I wanted.

Sportsbet.com.au paid out on Biden once Wisconsin was won on Thursday 5/11 morning our time. Otherwise, I had to wait until it was called.

I did not feel that Hillary was worth betting on in 2016, but Joe Biden had something Presidential about him, and once Trump got sick with COVID-19, I thought that was the ballgame.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Metro Los Angeles is more pro-Trump/less pro-Biden than I expected. Then again, the map only shows donations over $200.

Anddddd...  Los Angeles County swung R, by noticeably more than either SF or Santa Clara (San Jose).

I remember people were mocking me for suggesting that California might be maxed out for the Dems.

[lfromnj]

Metro Los Angeles is more pro-Trump/less pro-Biden than I expected. Then again, the map only shows donations over $200.

Anddddd...  Los Angeles County swung R, by noticeably more than either SF or Santa Clara (San Jose).

I remember people were mocking me for suggesting that California might be maxed out for the Dems.

Except LA added 2 votes for biden for every Trump vote which still moves CA to the left.

[DaleCooper]

Minnesota and NE-02 being to the left of the nation is the only take of mine I can think of that was right.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

GA, NC, and ME-02 wrong for President

NC and ME wrong for Senate

[SingingAnalyst]

I was wrong about a lot, but I see the continuation of some 2012-2016 trends, at least in MI (and probably similarly in other states, particularly in the Midwest + PA):

-The gap between Oakland and Macomb Counties widened to 11 points, up from 10 last time. Bloomfield Hills, MI went Dem (50-49) for the first time in its history. Biden's gains came from Metro Detroit, while if anything Trump did better in many northern rural counties than he did in 2016 (Bay, Osceola, etc.) Also Saginaw was one of the closest counties in the US (+0.3 Biden).

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I was wrong about a lot, but I see the continuation of some 2012-2016 trends, at least in MI (and probably similarly in other states, particularly in the Midwest + PA):

-The gap between Oakland and Macomb Counties widened to 11 points, up from 10 last time. Bloomfield Hills, MI went Dem (50-49) for the first time in its history. Biden's gains came from Metro Detroit, while if anything Trump did better in many northern rural counties than he did in 2016 (Bay, Osceola, etc.) Also Saginaw was one of the closest counties in the US (+0.3 Biden).

What do you make of Antrim County's 15-pt. swing towards Biden, mathstatman? I've visited a close friend there and it seems as though it's your ordinary Trumpy semi-rural/small-town county. 

[bagelman]

I was wrong about a lot, but I see the continuation of some 2012-2016 trends, at least in MI (and probably similarly in other states, particularly in the Midwest + PA):

-The gap between Oakland and Macomb Counties widened to 11 points, up from 10 last time. Bloomfield Hills, MI went Dem (50-49) for the first time in its history. Biden's gains came from Metro Detroit, while if anything Trump did better in many northern rural counties than he did in 2016 (Bay, Osceola, etc.) Also Saginaw was one of the closest counties in the US (+0.3 Biden).

What do you make of Antrim County's 15-pt. swing towards Biden, mathstatman? I've visited a close friend there and it seems as though it's your ordinary Trumpy semi-rural/small-town county. 

https://www.wzzm13.com/article/news/local/michigan/officials-antrim-county-clerk-error/69-4ceabff8-0dc9-4be6-9bc7-b8482b50cf6e

State officials say a clerk’s error in a small Republican-leaning northern Michigan county earlier this week led to the reporting of unofficial voting results favoring Democrat Joe Biden.

Questions were raised after Antrim County first reported a local landslide for Biden against incumbent Republican Donald Trump in the presidential election.

The Republican National Committee included it among several allegations of voting irregularities in Michigan that favored Biden and Democrats.

RELATED: Antrim county counting ballots by hand after 'skewed results'

But Michigan’s Department of State said Friday evening that the clerk accidentally did not update software used to collect voting machine data.

More than 16,000 votes were cast. Revised totals show Trump defeating Biden in Antrim County, getting 56% of the vote.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I was wrong about a lot, but I see the continuation of some 2012-2016 trends, at least in MI (and probably similarly in other states, particularly in the Midwest + PA):

-The gap between Oakland and Macomb Counties widened to 11 points, up from 10 last time. Bloomfield Hills, MI went Dem (50-49) for the first time in its history. Biden's gains came from Metro Detroit, while if anything Trump did better in many northern rural counties than he did in 2016 (Bay, Osceola, etc.) Also Saginaw was one of the closest counties in the US (+0.3 Biden).

What do you make of Antrim County's 15-pt. swing towards Biden, mathstatman? I've visited a close friend there and it seems as though it's your ordinary Trumpy semi-rural/small-town county.  

https://www.wzzm13.com/article/news/local/michigan/officials-antrim-county-clerk-error/69-4ceabff8-0dc9-4be6-9bc7-b8482b50cf6e

State officials say a clerk’s error in a small Republican-leaning northern Michigan county earlier this week led to the reporting of unofficial voting results favoring Democrat Joe Biden.

Questions were raised after Antrim County first reported a local landslide for Biden against incumbent Republican Donald Trump in the presidential election.

The Republican National Committee included it among several allegations of voting irregularities in Michigan that favored Biden and Democrats.

RELATED: Antrim county counting ballots by hand after 'skewed results'

But Michigan’s Department of State said Friday evening that the clerk accidentally did not update software used to collect voting machine data.

More than 16,000 votes were cast. Revised totals show Trump defeating Biden in Antrim County, getting 56% of the vote.

Oh, I know that.  I was probably one of the first people here that posted about how strange Antrim County looked lit-up in blue in the hours following polls-closing.  

Antrim County still took a sharp turn to the left.  At 42.9%, Biden is only the third Democrat to pull more than 42 pts. here since 1936.  

Antrim County, MI (2016)

Donald J. Trump (R):  62.0%
Hillary R. Clinton (D):  32.6%

Antrim County, MI (2020) ~ >98% votes counted

Donald J. Trump (R):  56.4% (-5.6)
Joseph R. Biden (D):  42.9% (+9.3)

Swing (2016 --> 2020):  ~15-16 pts.

---

In fact, this represents the largest swing in *any* Rust Belt county (as the count stands now). 

[bagelman]

Shows up as 61-37 R on USElectionAtlas, about a D+6 swing. Of course that might be less up to date than your numbers, if so I'll wait for mathstatman to respond.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Shows up as 61-37 R on USElectionAtlas, about a D+6 swing. Of course that might be less up to date than your numbers, if so I'll wait for mathstatman to respond.

It appears that the article you posted is referencing the error that gave Biden what would have been a 60+ point swing from 2016 -- I think this has already been corrected since the closing passage notes that Trump garnered some 56% of the vote. 

But either way: yeah, this has definitely been a screwy county and I wouldn't have noticed if it hadn't been for the fact that I have a close friend there

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I think this needs some kind of accolade, too. 🤗

[woodley park]

I was adamant that Biden would crack 300 Electoral College votes. I know that is a rather humble prediction, but I just found the Atlas consensus that he would be stuck at 290 to be insulting, given the national environment. It is even sweeter that he is going to break 300 Electoral College votes due to Georgia of all places, considering Buzz and Horus were some of the preachiest folks on here. I think Buzz has a backlog of millions of "receipts" that are now of no redeemable value.

I can only be so smug though, because I was basically wrong on everything else. The Senate didn't flip (yet), Ernst and Collins won when I thought they were finished, and the Democrats did a lot worse than I thought in the House, given the national environment.