2020 State Legislature Results -Post Here
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Author Topic: 2020 State Legislature Results -Post Here  (Read 7585 times)
TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #75 on: November 12, 2020, 07:47:50 PM »

Looks like the Alaska house is looking ok for D's.

It's pretty bizarre that the most likely Republican flip is proving to be the toughest of the realistic Republican gains.
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Torie
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« Reply #76 on: November 12, 2020, 08:45:43 PM »

My little spreadsheet suggests that after thge absentee ballot fray is over the Pubs will pick up two seats and lose two seats, so no net change: 40D to 23R. The Dems needed to behead two state senate pubs net to get a two thirds majority, and control redistricting. That probably will not happen. The seat most in doubt is one that I have the Pub losing. But the statistical deviation of these absentee ballot projections is high.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #77 on: November 12, 2020, 10:32:00 PM »

Looks like the Alaska house is looking ok for D's.
The majority coalition had 15 Democrats, 8 Republicans, and 2 independents. All but one of the leadership positions went to Republican (bipartisan leaders/turncoats). The speaker was a Democrat who switched to Independent as part of the deal.

One of the eight resigned to take a position in government. One was killed in a plane crash during the primary, and three were defeated in the primary. The Democrats appear to have flipped one seat. One seat went from Democrat to independent after the loser in the Democratic primary contested the general election and won.

So that makes it 15D, 22R, 3I or possibly:

15D+3R+3I vs. 19R.

Will the Democrats be willing to cede as much power to cross-over Republicans?
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #78 on: November 13, 2020, 07:46:46 AM »

My little spreadsheet suggests that after thge absentee ballot fray is over the Pubs will pick up two seats and lose two seats, so no net change: 40D to 23R. The Dems needed to behead two state senate pubs net to get a two thirds majority, and control redistricting. That probably will not happen. The seat most in doubt is one that I have the Pub losing. But the statistical deviation of these absentee ballot projections is high.

What are the seats you have flipping?  I have Dems picking up the two Rochester seats, the Syracuse seat, and the Buffalo seat.  I have Republicans picking up the three LI seats, two Hudson Valley seats, and a Brooklyn seat.  Dems have a pretty good chance to pull ahead in one of the Hudson Valley seats, the Brooklyn seat, and two of the LI seats.  Is that where you are at? 
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Gass3268
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« Reply #79 on: November 13, 2020, 09:14:44 PM »

The red mirage is fading on Long Island:



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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #80 on: November 13, 2020, 09:20:47 PM »

The red mirage is fading on Long Island:





Looks like Dems are gonna have to go for a 22-4 House map in New York.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #81 on: November 13, 2020, 09:23:21 PM »

The red mirage is fading on Long Island:





Looks like Dems are gonna have to go for a 22-4 House map in New York.

I feel like that could end up as a massive dummymander.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #82 on: November 13, 2020, 09:30:16 PM »


They are going to need to push the envelope if they are going to counter what's going to happen in the south this cycle.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #83 on: November 13, 2020, 09:30:21 PM »

The red mirage is fading on Long Island:





Looks like Dems are gonna have to go for a 22-4 House map in New York.

I feel like that could end up as a massive dummymander.

Not at all.  Pack all of rural Western NY and the Southern Tier into one district (Reed), pack the North Country and Republican areas in the Mohawk Valley into one district (Stefanik), and then pack two Republicans on Long Island.  For good measure, send a tendril from the Bronx/Yonkers district to grab very Republican parts of Orange County and send a tendril from Sean Patrick Maloney’s district into the Bronx to make that safe.  All 22 Dem districts would have likely gone for Hillary.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #84 on: November 13, 2020, 09:32:46 PM »

The red mirage is fading on Long Island:





Looks like Dems are gonna have to go for a 22-4 House map in New York.

I feel like that could end up as a massive dummymander.

Not at all.  Pack all of rural Western NY and the Southern Tier into one district (Reed), pack the North Country and Republican areas in the Mohawk Valley into one district (Stefanik), and then pack two Republicans on Long Island.  For good measure, send a tendril from the Bronx/Yonkers district to grab very Republican parts of Orange County and send a tendril from Sean Patrick Maloney’s district into the Bronx to make that safe.  All 22 Dem districts would have likely gone for Hillary.

Why would you pack 2 Republicans on Long Island?

Also Im guessing the packs would border each other right?
You could prob make atleast one tossup out of those 2 packs.
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Beet
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« Reply #85 on: November 13, 2020, 09:34:26 PM »


They are going to need to push the envelope if they are going to counter what's going to happen in the south this cycle.

Didn't they pass a bipartisan commission? I feel the Democrats' loss of the House in 2022 is guaranteed.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #86 on: November 13, 2020, 09:36:41 PM »


They are going to need to push the envelope if they are going to counter what's going to happen in the south this cycle.

Yep.  First step is protecting what they have in IL and NV (by unpacking NV-01 to help Suzie Lee and removing the Cow counties from NV-04).  In NY, they just need to shore up Sean Patrick Maloney, Delgado, and Suozzi, double bunk Jacobs and Reed, put Katko in an  even more Dem district, and draw out Malatinokis.  Dems have to be as aggressive as they can wherever possible. 
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Gass3268
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« Reply #87 on: November 13, 2020, 09:39:09 PM »


They are going to need to push the envelope if they are going to counter what's going to happen in the south this cycle.

Didn't they pass a bipartisan commission? I feel the Democrats' loss of the House in 2022 is guaranteed.

Everything I've read is it can be overturned with a super majority.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #88 on: November 13, 2020, 09:39:47 PM »


They are going to need to push the envelope if they are going to counter what's going to happen in the south this cycle.

Yep.  First step is protecting what they have in IL and NV (by unpacking NV-01 to help Suzie Lee and removing the Cow counties from NV-04).  In NY, they just need to shore up Sean Patrick Maloney, Delgado, and Suozzi, double bunk Jacobs and Reed, put Katko in an  even more Dem district, and draw out Malatinokis.  Dems have to be as aggressive as they can wherever possible. 

There isn't any blue stuff near Katko besides Ithaca which fits well with Delgado really. Probably can't take him out, I think Brindisi is going to win so you prob just have to make the most D district you can for Brindisi with the left overs.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #89 on: November 13, 2020, 09:42:50 PM »


They are going to need to push the envelope if they are going to counter what's going to happen in the south this cycle.

Yep.  First step is protecting what they have in IL and NV (by unpacking NV-01 to help Suzie Lee and removing the Cow counties from NV-04).  In NY, they just need to shore up Sean Patrick Maloney, Delgado, and Suozzi, double bunk Jacobs and Reed, put Katko in an  even more Dem district, and draw out Malatinokis.  Dems have to be as aggressive as they can wherever possible.  

There isn't any blue stuff near Katko besides Ithaca which fits well with Delgado really. Probably can't take him out, I think Brindisi is going to win so you prob just have to make the most D district you can for Brindisi with the left overs.

Obviously Ithaca (as well as Binghamton) goes to Delgado.  He basically gets Hinchey’s old district.  Delgado’s more Republican areas like rural Rensselaer, Montgomery, and Greene counties go to Stefanik.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #90 on: November 13, 2020, 10:54:38 PM »


They are going to need to push the envelope if they are going to counter what's going to happen in the south this cycle.

Yep.  First step is protecting what they have in IL and NV (by unpacking NV-01 to help Suzie Lee and removing the Cow counties from NV-04).  In NY, they just need to shore up Sean Patrick Maloney, Delgado, and Suozzi, double bunk Jacobs and Reed, put Katko in an  even more Dem district, and draw out Malatinokis.  Dems have to be as aggressive as they can wherever possible.  

There isn't any blue stuff near Katko besides Ithaca which fits well with Delgado really. Probably can't take him out, I think Brindisi is going to win so you prob just have to make the most D district you can for Brindisi with the left overs.

Obviously Ithaca (as well as Binghamton) goes to Delgado.  He basically gets Hinchey’s old district.  Delgado’s more Republican areas like rural Rensselaer, Montgomery, and Greene counties go to Stefanik.

Yeah its really tough to remove Katko without Ithaca,  I guess one could cook up some monstrosity or something Rochester is barely holding itself in a Likely/Safe D seat and its not much more with Buffalo.
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GALeftist
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« Reply #91 on: November 13, 2020, 11:17:17 PM »

Oh thank God. Best news I've heard all day. Love you, New York!
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15 Down, 35 To Go
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« Reply #92 on: November 13, 2020, 11:27:01 PM »
« Edited: November 13, 2020, 11:30:07 PM by Pro-Life Single Issue Voter »

In Tennessee, Democrats flipped SD-20, which is located in Davidson County (Nashville).  It has large overlap with HD-56, which flipped during the 2018 midterms, and is mostly in the outer Southern and Western parts of the county.  It is a Romney-Clinton district where Biden probably improved on Clinton's narrow 2016 margin.  Heidi Campbell (D) defeated two-term incumbent Steve Dickerson (R) by about three and a half points.  Only half of the chamber was up for reelection, but the Democrats cut the Republican advantage from 28-5 to 27-6.

Over on the House side, it appears that not a single district flipped parties.  With that said, one incumbent did lose reelection, as longtime Rep. John DeBerry (90th District), who was kicked out of the Democratic Party for having a quite conservative voting record (especially on abortion, gay marriage, and school choice) and for aligning himself with Republican-leaning organizations, was not able to win his bid for reelection as an Independent in a solidly Democratic district.  He got 23% of the vote.  Democrats held competitive seats in Knox County (TN-13) and Davidson County (TN-56) that they flipped in 2018, while Republicans held close seats in Rutherford County (TN-49) and Shelby County (TN-97), though the rapidly diversifying seat in Northwestern Rutherford County (near the SE Nashville neighborhood of Antioch) was not quite as close as it was in 2018.  It's also worth noting that Glen Casada (TN-63) had no problems winning reelection despite having been stripped of the speakership over ethical failings.  He easily won 60-32-8 over a Democrat and an Independent in his Eastern Williamson County seat.  The General Assembly will remain 73-26 Republican.

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S019
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« Reply #93 on: November 14, 2020, 02:57:18 AM »
« Edited: November 14, 2020, 03:07:14 AM by Anti-Gun, Pro-Saving Lives S019 »


They are going to need to push the envelope if they are going to counter what's going to happen in the south this cycle.

Yep.  First step is protecting what they have in IL and NV (by unpacking NV-01 to help Suzie Lee and removing the Cow counties from NV-04).  In NY, they just need to shore up Sean Patrick Maloney, Delgado, and Suozzi, double bunk Jacobs and Reed, put Katko in an  even more Dem district, and draw out Malatinokis.  Dems have to be as aggressive as they can wherever possible.  

There isn't any blue stuff near Katko besides Ithaca which fits well with Delgado really. Probably can't take him out, I think Brindisi is going to win so you prob just have to make the most D district you can for Brindisi with the left overs.

Obviously Ithaca (as well as Binghamton) goes to Delgado.  He basically gets Hinchey’s old district.  Delgado’s more Republican areas like rural Rensselaer, Montgomery, and Greene counties go to Stefanik.

Yeah its really tough to remove Katko without Ithaca,  I guess one could cook up some monstrosity or something Rochester is barely holding itself in a Likely/Safe D seat and its not much more with Buffalo.

I guess what happens is you throw Utica into Katko's seat and force it to shed its more Republican western counties, wouldn't be a done deal, but still probably a Lean D seat and maybe Likely D, if he faces Brindisi. Also if NY Dems take the supermajority, Malliotakis is done, her seat can just be drawn into Manhattan and become like D+30, and the Brooklyn part of the seat is actually quite blue I believe, so incumbents won't complain about having to take it in. My guess is that you follow the Verrazano Bridge onto 278 and then take the Battery Tunnel into Manhattan to get road continuity and then just send the seat into Manhattan, this messes with Nadler's seat a bit, but not too much, and Nadler is of course still safe.

My guess is Dems go for a 22-4 or 21-4 delegation, depending on whether NY loses one or two CD's, in both cases the cuts would probably be seats currently held by Dems. (The first cut would be Brindisi (or Tenney, if she hangs on) and the second cut would be an NYC Dem) Katko and Malliotakis are targeted and all other Reps are not targeted and all Dems are made safe.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #94 on: November 16, 2020, 04:17:18 PM »

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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #95 on: November 17, 2020, 01:40:15 PM »



The incumbent Ellen Jaffee previously won by 31 points in 2018.
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ChiefFireWaterMike
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« Reply #96 on: November 17, 2020, 01:43:35 PM »


The incumbent Ellen Jaffee previously won by 31 points in 2018.
Damn, what?
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Canis
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« Reply #97 on: November 17, 2020, 02:53:07 PM »


The incumbent Ellen Jaffee previously won by 31 points in 2018.
Damn, what?
State Leg races are weird often highly local weird results happen in them all the time
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ChiefFireWaterMike
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« Reply #98 on: November 17, 2020, 03:21:34 PM »


The incumbent Ellen Jaffee previously won by 31 points in 2018.
Damn, what?
State Leg races are weird often highly local weird results happen in them all the time
Still weird af.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #99 on: November 17, 2020, 03:42:49 PM »

Some of the Orthodox Jews in that seat were pretty pro Clinton IIRC because Bill Clinton gave some pardons to a group of them after they voted for Hillary in her 2000 Senate Campaign.


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