2020 State Legislature Results -Post Here

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Why did Republicans do so well in state legislatures? Financing? Are the Democrats really that bad at messaging? Curious to hear what you all think.

Surely - not financing, as Democratic candidates outraised Republican in many races, that were considered competitive (but, at least some - turned not..).

Is this true? My impression is that Republicans were heavily outraised in the US Senate but that grassroots funding didn't really take off at the state representative level while the same organisations that have been backing Republicans and Democrats in them continued to dole out the cash (and Republicans had an advantage with these groups). I'm not too sure about this, tbf.

[Frenchrepublican]

Why did Republicans do so well in state legislatures? Financing? Are the Democrats really that bad at messaging? Curious to hear what you all think.

Surely - not financing, as Democratic candidates outraised Republican in many races, that were considered competitive (but, at least some - turned not..). Messaging is far more likely. Especially - concerning police and some other "hot button social" issues.  Not everyone (even among Democrats) subscribes under "bold progressive" platform. That was true on congressional level (NE-02 is the best example, but there are many other), that was even more true on many state legislative races. Plus - not every anti-Trump voter is anti-GOP in general..

Yeah, that's why Biden's talks about having '' a mandate '' to fundamentaly change the system in a progressive way are misguided at best

[VAR]

Lol Democrats

[Frenchrepublican]

Why did Republicans do so well in state legislatures? Financing? Are the Democrats really that bad at messaging? Curious to hear what you all think.

Surely - not financing, as Democratic candidates outraised Republican in many races, that were considered competitive (but, at least some - turned not..).

Is this true? My impression is that Republicans were heavily outraised in the US Senate but that grassroots funding didn't really take off at the state representative level while the same organisations that have been backing Republicans and Democrats in them continued to dole out the cash (and Republicans had an advantage with these groups). I'm not too sure about this, tbf.

In Texas, at least, that was not case, democratic candidates for the state House raised impressive amount of money, not sure about other states though

[smoltchanov]

Why did Republicans do so well in state legislatures? Financing? Are the Democrats really that bad at messaging? Curious to hear what you all think.

Surely - not financing, as Democratic candidates outraised Republican in many races, that were considered competitive (but, at least some - turned not..).

Is this true? My impression is that Republicans were heavily outraised in the US Senate but that grassroots funding didn't really take off at the state representative level while the same organisations that have been backing Republicans and Democrats in them continued to dole out the cash (and Republicans had an advantage with these groups). I'm not too sure about this, tbf.

I said "many", not "all". Of course - there are exceptions (and - lot of them). Nevertheless - it's a fact, that a lot of Democratic state legislative candidates were very well financed, and that it wasn't enough for victory per se..

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

These are the only bragging rights that Rs have left

[StateBoiler]

Why did Republicans do so well in state legislatures? Financing? Are the Democrats really that bad at messaging? Curious to hear what you all think.

Democrats are a dead political party in vast swathes of this country.

[Yellowhammer]

Why did Republicans do so well in state legislatures? Financing? Are the Democrats really that bad at messaging? Curious to hear what you all think.

Democrats are a dead political party in vast swathes of this country.

And I think that 2022 will show us that democratic losses in the rurals are more permanent than GOP losses in the suburbs.

[jamestroll]

Why did Republicans do so well in state legislatures? Financing? Are the Democrats really that bad at messaging? Curious to hear what you all think.

Democrats are a dead political party in vast swathes of this country.

And I think that 2022 will show us that democratic losses in the rurals are more permanent than GOP losses in the suburbs.

Most suburbs are not going to go back to being as Republican as they were before Trump and Obama lol. I can't really see DuPage County becoming a GOP strong hold

[Frenchrepublican]

Why did Republicans do so well in state legislatures? Financing? Are the Democrats really that bad at messaging? Curious to hear what you all think.

Democrats are a dead political party in vast swathes of this country.

And I think that 2022 will show us that democratic losses in the rurals are more permanent than GOP losses in the suburbs.

It depends of which kind of suburb you are talking about (NOVA = dead / Chicagoland = maybe not)

[Frenchrepublican]

Why did Republicans do so well in state legislatures? Financing? Are the Democrats really that bad at messaging? Curious to hear what you all think.

Democrats are a dead political party in vast swathes of this country.

And I think that 2022 will show us that democratic losses in the rurals are more permanent than GOP losses in the suburbs.

Most suburbs are not going to go back to being as Republican as they were before Trump and Obama lol. I can't really see DuPage County becoming a GOP strong hold

No, but getting back to 46% (in a good year) seems possible

[jamestroll]

Why did Republicans do so well in state legislatures? Financing? Are the Democrats really that bad at messaging? Curious to hear what you all think.

Democrats are a dead political party in vast swathes of this country.

And I think that 2022 will show us that democratic losses in the rurals are more permanent than GOP losses in the suburbs.

Most suburbs are not going to go back to being as Republican as they were before Trump and Obama lol. I can't really see DuPage County becoming a GOP strong hold

No, but getting back to 46% seems possible.

Suburbs are still a very important part of the Democratic coalition.

I do not get all this talk of Democrats suddenly going to lose all suburbs going forward.

[Yellowhammer]

Why did Republicans do so well in state legislatures? Financing? Are the Democrats really that bad at messaging? Curious to hear what you all think.

Democrats are a dead political party in vast swathes of this country.

And I think that 2022 will show us that democratic losses in the rurals are more permanent than GOP losses in the suburbs.

Most suburbs are not going to go back to being as Republican as they were before Trump and Obama lol. I can't really see DuPage County becoming a GOP strong hold

I know that, but recovering to 2016 levels in some of these places is a possibility. In the 2022 midterm, there could be an even bigger shift though it would probably be a temporary dead cat bounce.

[jamestroll]

Why did Republicans do so well in state legislatures? Financing? Are the Democrats really that bad at messaging? Curious to hear what you all think.

Democrats are a dead political party in vast swathes of this country.

And I think that 2022 will show us that democratic losses in the rurals are more permanent than GOP losses in the suburbs.

Most suburbs are not going to go back to being as Republican as they were before Trump and Obama lol. I can't really see DuPage County becoming a GOP strong hold

I know that, but recovering to 2016 levels in some of these places is a possibility. In the 2022 midterm, there could be an even bigger shift though it would probably be a temporary dead cat bounce.

Cool we agree there.

Why did Republicans do so well in state legislatures? Financing? Are the Democrats really that bad at messaging? Curious to hear what you all think.

Democrats are a dead political party in vast swathes of this country.

And I think that 2022 will show us that democratic losses in the rurals are more permanent than GOP losses in the suburbs.

Most suburbs are not going to go back to being as Republican as they were before Trump and Obama lol. I can't really see DuPage County becoming a GOP strong hold

No, but getting back to 46% seems possible.

Also while Democrats are losing house seats left and right in Southern California, Casten held on in a GOP vote sink in Chicagoland and Underwood will probably end up holding on. The two parties traded seats in Chicagoland for the legislature and Durbin had his most Chicagoland (relative to statewide results) coalition ever.

But yea, I do not know if Pritzker will carry DuPage in 2022. But it will be close either way

[Frenchrepublican]

Why did Republicans do so well in state legislatures? Financing? Are the Democrats really that bad at messaging? Curious to hear what you all think.

Democrats are a dead political party in vast swathes of this country.

And I think that 2022 will show us that democratic losses in the rurals are more permanent than GOP losses in the suburbs.

Most suburbs are not going to go back to being as Republican as they were before Trump and Obama lol. I can't really see DuPage County becoming a GOP strong hold

I know that, but recovering to 2016 levels in some of these places is a possibility. In the 2022 midterm, there could be an even bigger shift though it would probably be a temporary dead cat bounce.

Cool we agree there.

Why did Republicans do so well in state legislatures? Financing? Are the Democrats really that bad at messaging? Curious to hear what you all think.

Democrats are a dead political party in vast swathes of this country.

And I think that 2022 will show us that democratic losses in the rurals are more permanent than GOP losses in the suburbs.

Most suburbs are not going to go back to being as Republican as they were before Trump and Obama lol. I can't really see DuPage County becoming a GOP strong hold

No, but getting back to 46% seems possible.

Also while Democrats are losing house seats left and right in Southern California, Casten held on in a GOP vote sink in Chicagoland and Underwood will probably end up holding on. The two parties traded seats in Chicagoland for the legislature and Durbin had his most Chicagoland (relative to statewide results) coalition ever.

But yea, I do not know if Pritzker will carry DuPage in 2022. But it will be close either way

I know that some ballots must still be counted but their winning margins are note very impressive, considering that their races were rated Safe D and Likely D.

[jamestroll]

Why did Republicans do so well in state legislatures? Financing? Are the Democrats really that bad at messaging? Curious to hear what you all think.

Democrats are a dead political party in vast swathes of this country.

And I think that 2022 will show us that democratic losses in the rurals are more permanent than GOP losses in the suburbs.

Most suburbs are not going to go back to being as Republican as they were before Trump and Obama lol. I can't really see DuPage County becoming a GOP strong hold

I know that, but recovering to 2016 levels in some of these places is a possibility. In the 2022 midterm, there could be an even bigger shift though it would probably be a temporary dead cat bounce.

Cool we agree there.

Why did Republicans do so well in state legislatures? Financing? Are the Democrats really that bad at messaging? Curious to hear what you all think.

Democrats are a dead political party in vast swathes of this country.

And I think that 2022 will show us that democratic losses in the rurals are more permanent than GOP losses in the suburbs.

Most suburbs are not going to go back to being as Republican as they were before Trump and Obama lol. I can't really see DuPage County becoming a GOP strong hold

No, but getting back to 46% seems possible.

Also while Democrats are losing house seats left and right in Southern California, Casten held on in a GOP vote sink in Chicagoland and Underwood will probably end up holding on. The two parties traded seats in Chicagoland for the legislature and Durbin had his most Chicagoland (relative to statewide results) coalition ever.

But yea, I do not know if Pritzker will carry DuPage in 2022. But it will be close either way

I know that some ballots must still be counted but their winning margins are note very impressive, considering that their races were rated Safe D and Likely D.

and they actually won! Despite the fact that demographics are in theory quite favorable to the GOP in those chicagoland suburbs and I can argue they are more secure for Democrats than Orange County. Not that I expect Orange county to vote for a Republican for President any time soon.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

These are the only bragging rights that Rs have left

With the house and senate results, they're some pretty big bragging rights.

[GALeftist]

Why did Republicans do so well in state legislatures? Financing? Are the Democrats really that bad at messaging? Curious to hear what you all think.

Surely - not financing, as Democratic candidates outraised Republican in many races, that were considered competitive (but, at least some - turned not..). Messaging is far more likely. Especially - concerning police and some other "hot button social" issues.  Not everyone (even among Democrats) subscribes under "bold progressive" platform. That was true on congressional level (NE-02 is the best example, but there are many other), that was even more true on many state legislative races. Plus - not every anti-Trump voter is anti-GOP in general..

DLCC funding was not great this cycle IIRC. I think Democratic voters in like California or wherever are beginning to understand why a Senate seat in Georgia matters to them, but they're a long way from truly understanding why the Texas State House matters as well.

Also I don't want to get into a whole progressive vs. moderate spat atm but I will note that DeFazio, Porter, Levin and the like survived the carnage for downballot Dems this cycle

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Why did Republicans do so well in state legislatures? Financing? Are the Democrats really that bad at messaging? Curious to hear what you all think.

It certainly doesn’t help that many of the seats democrats were hoping to gain were drawn specifically to never flip to the democrats and suppress democrats in the states (Texas, Georgia, etc.)

[StateBoiler]

Why did Republicans do so well in state legislatures? Financing? Are the Democrats really that bad at messaging? Curious to hear what you all think.

It certainly doesn’t help that many of the seats democrats were hoping to gain were drawn specifically to never flip to the democrats and suppress democrats in the states (Texas, Georgia, etc.)

These current seats were all drawn in the runup to 2012. Democrats have consistently lost seats in the 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2020 elections. So your post only holds weight for all seats not held by Democrats after the 2012 elections. Anything Democrats won in 2012, they should still be holding now per your post.

[Frodo]

Worth remembering that even Republicans thought it quite likely that Democrats would make at least some significant gains in the legislatures this year.

So much for that....  

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Yes. The MIGOP refused to share their internals with MIRS news as late as the day before the election (so much for the "late swing" narrative) because they were (as they admitted) bad. They did not refuse to do this in 2016.

[Frodo]

Yes. The MIGOP refused to share their internals with MIRS news as late as the day before the election (so much for the "late swing" narrative) because they were (as they admitted) bad. They did not refuse to do this in 2016.

Looking at the Michigan results, it is hard to see why (in retrospect) they were so apprehensive:

Republicans flip Democratic seats, keep majority in Michigan House

Republicans are poised to return a majority to the Michigan House next term after offsetting potential losses by flipping two Democratic seats.

Losses by incumbent Reps. Brian Elder of Bay City and Sheryl Kennedy of Davison killed Democrats’ quest to seize control of the lower chamber for the first time since 2010. GOP candidates held enough other seats to retain at least a 57-53 majority.

It’s a tough blow for Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who hit the campaign trail last month for Elder, Kennedy and other Democratic candidates in an attempt to break the GOP’s decade-long grip on the Michigan Legislature.

Instead, Republicans will retain control of both the House and Senate for the remainder of Whitmer’s first of two possible terms, limiting her ability to advance an agenda that has been largely stymied by partisan fights and COVID-19.

[lfromnj]

https://miami.cbslocal.com/2020/11/11/jose-javier-rodriguez-ileana-garcia-recount-continues-state-senate-district-37/

Never change FDP

Looks like Democrats are about to lose a senate seat covering parts of the actual city of Miami itself that even voted for Murphy in 2016. Republicans may have ran a person who was an indy with the same last name as the D and they got like 1.5%.

[lfromnj]

Looks like the Alaska house is looking ok for D's.