2020 State Legislature Results -Post Here

[Young Conservative]

https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/final-results-for-florida-state-senate-district-37-race-expected-thursday/2320422/

I know this has already been posted, but this needs some more analysis.

The GOP flipped a seat that voted for Clinton by 2022. While Trump undoubtably did better in this district this year, this is a Murphy-Nelson district that in 2018 voted for every statewide Democrat by double digits. The GOP likely employed some tactics that have been effective for them in other races: ensuring a third party left wing candidate on the ballot.

Regardless, Democrats hoped to pickup 2 seats this cycle. Instead, they lost one, putting them several cycles back in their hopes to retake a chamber in an alleged "swing" state that they have not held since 1994.

In 2022, both the GOP and Democrats will have several offensive targets. In a Democratic midterm though, I would rather be the GOP. I will do an in depth analysis once more precinct data is present. The Democrats best chance at taking a seat is likely District 8, based around Gainesville where the incumbent is term-limited. The GOP has several prime targets, including Janet Cruz in Tampa Bay and Annette Taddeo, who represents a Hispanic seat in Miami that was only a Clinton +12 seat.

Stay tuned for more info, but the GOP could take a supermajority in both Florida chambers by 2022/2024, a truly stunning feat and a testament that good candidate recruitment, solid messaging, and a strong state party can do amazing things. The GOP is 2 seats away from a supermajority in the State House and 2-3 away in the State Senate.

[Alcibiades]

In Tennessee, Democrats flipped SD-20, which is located in Davidson County (Nashville).  It has large overlap with HD-56, which flipped during the 2018 midterms, and is mostly in the outer Southern and Western parts of the county.  It is a Romney-Clinton district where Biden probably improved on Clinton's narrow 2016 margin.  Heidi Campbell (D) defeated two-term incumbent Steve Dickerson (R) by about three and a half points.  Only half of the chamber was up for reelection, but the Democrats cut the Republican advantage from 28-5 to 27-6.

Over on the House side, it appears that not a single district flipped parties.  With that said, one incumbent did lose reelection, as longtime Rep. John DeBerry (90th District), who was kicked out of the Democratic Party for having a quite conservative voting record (especially on abortion, gay marriage, and school choice) and for aligning himself with Republican-leaning organizations, was not able to win his bid for reelection as an Independent in a solidly Democratic district.  He got 23% of the vote.  Democrats held competitive seats in Knox County (TN-13) and Davidson County (TN-56) that they flipped in 2018, while Republicans held close seats in Rutherford County (TN-49) and Shelby County (TN-97), though the rapidly diversifying seat in Northwestern Rutherford County (near the SE Nashville neighborhood of Antioch) was not quite as close as it was in 2018.  It's also worth noting that Glen Casada (TN-63) had no problems winning reelection despite having been stripped of the speakership over ethical failings.  He easily won 60-32-8 over a Democrat and an Independent in his Eastern Williamson County seat.  The General Assembly will remain 73-26 Republican.

Question: why did the Republicans not put up a candidate in TN HD 41 (John Mark Windle’s seat). This is the type of white ancestral rural seat (the last of its kind seemingly in the TN legislature) that would have been a prime pick-up opportunity, considering the results in these kinds of seats in other states.

[Mr.Phips]

https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/final-results-for-florida-state-senate-district-37-race-expected-thursday/2320422/

I know this has already been posted, but this needs some more analysis.

The GOP flipped a seat that voted for Clinton by 2022. While Trump undoubtably did better in this district this year, this is a Murphy-Nelson district that in 2018 voted for every statewide Democrat by double digits. The GOP likely employed some tactics that have been effective for them in other races: ensuring a third party left wing candidate on the ballot.

Regardless, Democrats hoped to pickup 2 seats this cycle. Instead, they lost one, putting them several cycles back in their hopes to retake a chamber in an alleged "swing" state that they have not held since 1994.

In 2022, both the GOP and Democrats will have several offensive targets. In a Democratic midterm though, I would rather be the GOP. I will do an in depth analysis once more precinct data is present. The Democrats best chance at taking a seat is likely District 8, based around Gainesville where the incumbent is term-limited. The GOP has several prime targets, including Janet Cruz in Tampa Bay and Annette Taddeo, who represents a Hispanic seat in Miami that was only a Clinton +12 seat.

Stay tuned for more info, but the GOP could take a supermajority in both Florida chambers by 2022/2024.

I think Dems lost pretty much every one of their vulnerable seats in the Florida House this year (except for Adam Hattersley’s old seat).  At this point, I don’t know how many more seats Republicans could take there.  

In the Senate, the only vulnerable Dem seats are the Cruz and Taddeo seats.  Winning those would get Republicans to 26-14, which still isn’t two thirds.

[Young Conservative]

https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/final-results-for-florida-state-senate-district-37-race-expected-thursday/2320422/

I know this has already been posted, but this needs some more analysis.

The GOP flipped a seat that voted for Clinton by 2022. While Trump undoubtably did better in this district this year, this is a Murphy-Nelson district that in 2018 voted for every statewide Democrat by double digits. The GOP likely employed some tactics that have been effective for them in other races: ensuring a third party left wing candidate on the ballot.

Regardless, Democrats hoped to pickup 2 seats this cycle. Instead, they lost one, putting them several cycles back in their hopes to retake a chamber in an alleged "swing" state that they have not held since 1994.

In 2022, both the GOP and Democrats will have several offensive targets. In a Democratic midterm though, I would rather be the GOP. I will do an in depth analysis once more precinct data is present. The Democrats best chance at taking a seat is likely District 8, based around Gainesville where the incumbent is term-limited. The GOP has several prime targets, including Janet Cruz in Tampa Bay and Annette Taddeo, who represents a Hispanic seat in Miami that was only a Clinton +12 seat.

Stay tuned for more info, but the GOP could take a supermajority in both Florida chambers by 2022/2024.

I think Dems lost pretty much every one of their vulnerable seats in the Florida House this year (except for Adam Hattersley’s old seat).  At this point, I don’t know how many more seats Republicans could take there.  

Just updated my post. The GOP only needs a net gain of 2 to win the State House. Also, redistricting alone could give the GOP a stronger position in the state house.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

In Tennessee, Democrats flipped SD-20, which is located in Davidson County (Nashville).  It has large overlap with HD-56, which flipped during the 2018 midterms, and is mostly in the outer Southern and Western parts of the county.  It is a Romney-Clinton district where Biden probably improved on Clinton's narrow 2016 margin.  Heidi Campbell (D) defeated two-term incumbent Steve Dickerson (R) by about three and a half points.  Only half of the chamber was up for reelection, but the Democrats cut the Republican advantage from 28-5 to 27-6.

Over on the House side, it appears that not a single district flipped parties.  With that said, one incumbent did lose reelection, as longtime Rep. John DeBerry (90th District), who was kicked out of the Democratic Party for having a quite conservative voting record (especially on abortion, gay marriage, and school choice) and for aligning himself with Republican-leaning organizations, was not able to win his bid for reelection as an Independent in a solidly Democratic district.  He got 23% of the vote.  Democrats held competitive seats in Knox County (TN-13) and Davidson County (TN-56) that they flipped in 2018, while Republicans held close seats in Rutherford County (TN-49) and Shelby County (TN-97), though the rapidly diversifying seat in Northwestern Rutherford County (near the SE Nashville neighborhood of Antioch) was not quite as close as it was in 2018.  It's also worth noting that Glen Casada (TN-63) had no problems winning reelection despite having been stripped of the speakership over ethical failings.  He easily won 60-32-8 over a Democrat and an Independent in his Eastern Williamson County seat.  The General Assembly will remain 73-26 Republican.

Question: why did the Republicans not put up a candidate in TN HD 41 (John Mark Windle’s seat). This is the type of white ancestral rural seat (the last of its kind seemingly in the TN legislature) that would have been a prime pick-up opportunity, considering the results in these kinds of seats in other states.

I honestly don't know, but, it seems like he's a total DINO who is endorsed by a ton of conservative groups.  There was also the fact that part of Glen Casada's scandal was in trying to bribe him.  Maybe that had something to do with him not facing a Republican challenge.

https://www.newschannel5.com/news/newschannel-5-investigates/tennessee-lawmaker-says-he-rejected-speakers-effort-to-buy-his-vote-on-vouchers-legislation

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/jessemckinley/status/1328873544143564801?s=20

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

If NY Dems get a state senate majority as they seem poised to do, expect Cuomo to start seriously considering leaving for the Biden administration.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If NY Dems get a state senate majority as they seem poised to do, expect Cuomo to start seriously considering leaving for the Biden administration.

Gross.  Why would you want Cuomo as AG?

[Roll Roons]

If NY Dems get a state senate majority as they seem poised to do, expect Cuomo to start seriously considering leaving for the Biden administration.

Gross.  Why would you want Cuomo as AG?

So he can prosecute the people who killed thousands of nursing home residents by shoving in COVID patients. Oh wait....

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

If NY Dems get a state senate majority as they seem poised to do, expect Cuomo to start seriously considering leaving for the Biden administration.

Gross.  Why would you want Cuomo as AG?

I wouldn’t, but he got a DNC speaking slot so clearly some of the higher-ups still like him.

[lfromnj]

If NY Dems get a state senate majority as they seem poised to do, expect Cuomo to start seriously considering leaving for the Biden administration.

Gross.  Why would you want Cuomo as AG?

So you can have a new governor better guide the NY Democrats into actually drawing a good gerrymander?

[Mr.Phips]

If NY Dems get a state senate majority as they seem poised to do, expect Cuomo to start seriously considering leaving for the Biden administration.

Gross.  Why would you want Cuomo as AG?

So you can have a new governor better guide the NY Democrats into actually drawing a good gerrymander?

The governor is irrelevant to the process as long as Dems have a supermajority in both chambers.

[lfromnj]

If NY Dems get a state senate majority as they seem poised to do, expect Cuomo to start seriously considering leaving for the Biden administration.

Gross.  Why would you want Cuomo as AG?

So you can have a new governor better guide the NY Democrats into actually drawing a good gerrymander?

The governor is irrelevant to the process as long as Dems have a supermajority in both chambers.

Not completely irrelevant they can still guide and pressure and presumably has some allies in the legislature.

[Hope For A New Era]

Missouri:

Senate - No seats changed parties, but three vacant seats were filled. Two went to Democrats, one to a Republican. All three were titanium seats, so this was a shock to no one.

Result: D+1, from 23R-8D to 24R-10D.
23 is the number needed for a supermajority, so that's frustrating. It really did look like it was possible.
We'll get them next time. That Columbia district won't stay R forever.

House - One vacant seat was filled by a Republican, one seat in Springfield flipped to Democrat.

Result: No real change, just going from 114-48 to 115-49.
109 is supermajority. This one looked possible too. Sad.


Pretty remarkable how much of a wash this election seems to be. No dramatic change. Anywhere.

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/jessemckinley/status/1328873544143564801?s=20

Excellent. I hope Metzger and Harckham hold on upstate. Right now it seems like they are behind significantly. Metzger especially. It seems like SD-38 is going to flip unless there are a lot of absentee ballots still to count.

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/jessemckinley/status/1328873544143564801?s=20

Excellent. I hope Metzger and Harckham hold on upstate. Right now it seems like they are behind significantly. Metzger especially. It seems like SD-38 is going to flip unless there are a lot of absentee ballots still to count.

Dems held SD-38.  Harckham likely wins too once the Westchester absentees are counted.  Metzger is in a tougher position.

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/jessemckinley/status/1328873544143564801?s=20

Excellent. I hope Metzger and Harckham hold on upstate. Right now it seems like they are behind significantly. Metzger especially. It seems like SD-38 is going to flip unless there are a lot of absentee ballots still to count.

Dems held SD-38.  Harckham likely wins too once the Westchester absentees are counted.  Metzger is in a tougher position.

Where are you seeing the SD-38 info? Rockland county hasn't updated their results on BOE in awhile.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/RyanDeto/status/1329587898367283204

There is a tied state senate race in PA!

[S019]

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1330893375944486912

It's close to over now, John Katko must be very sad, knowing what the Dem supermajority will do to his seat.

[Benjamin Frank]

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1330893375944486912
It's close to over now, John Katko must be very sad, knowing what the Dem supermajority will do to his seat.

Why would they rip up his seat.  I thought it was a nice 'community of interest' district based in Syracuse and the Syracuse metro area.  That would be wrong and stupid to break that apart.

[EastAnglianLefty]

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1330893375944486912
It's close to over now, John Katko must be very sad, knowing what the Dem supermajority will do to his seat.

Why would they rip up his seat.  I thought it was a nice 'community of interest' district based in Syracuse and the Syracuse metro area.  That would be wrong and stupid to break that apart.

It doesn't need that much in the way of ripping. Just swapping Wayne County for Tompkins County would likely be enough to doom Katko.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1331248287987412992

[MarkD]

Massachusetts ticket-splitting:

Democratic State Sen. Anne Gobi was re-elected in the Worcester, Hampden, Hampshire, and Middlesex District, despite the fact that her district was the only one in Mass. to vote (narrowly) for Trump. At the same time she won 52.77% and her opponent, Republican Steve Hall, got 47.11%, the district voted 48.00% for Biden and 49.07% for Trump. Eleven of the twenty-eight towns in the district split their tickets, giving Trump at least a plurality while also voting for Gobi. Gobi got 2,983 more votes than Biden and Trump got 3,211 more votes than Steve Hall. Four years ago, this district voted by a much stronger margin for Trump, but Gobi was re-elected on that occassion too.

But voters in two other state senate districts split their tickets as well, going in the opposite direction. Republican State Sen. Ryan Fattman was re-elected in the Worcester and Norfolk District by a margin of 60.43% to 39.48%, against Democratic challenger Christine Crean. The district voted 51.57% for Biden and 45.83% for Trump. Fattman got 11,842 more votes than Trump and Biden got 12,429 more votes than Crean. Republican State Sen. Patrick O'Connor was re-elected in the Plymouth and Norfolk District by a margin of 54.97% to 44.97%, against Democratic opponent Meg Wheeler. The district voted 61.30% for Biden and 36.45% for Trump. O'Connor got 18,357 more votes than Trump and Biden got 20,070 more votes than Wheeler.
 
Republicans lost one of their four state senators; incumbent Dean Tran lost re-election in the Worcester and Middlesex District by 50.92% to 48.95% at the same time that the district voted for Biden by a margin of 56.87% to 41.24%. The only other Republican state senator, Bruce Tarr, who has been in the Senate for over 25 years, was unopposed (as he usually is). That district, 1st Essex and Middlesex, voted 60.75% for Biden and 36.76% for Trump. Tarr, Fattman, and O'Connor are the only remaining Republican state senators.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/25/us/georgia-asian-american-voters.html

https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia_State_Senate_elections,_2020

She was newly elected to Senate District 48, which is centered on Duluth and was a 2018 D pickup. For some reason, both the current and previous seat holders opted not to run for reelection.

Now there will be six Asian-Americans in the Statehouse, including Michelle Au, a Chinese-American doctor who was elected to the State Senate as a Democrat this month, the result of aggressive voter registration and turnout efforts. In this election, Mr. Woo put ads in Korean-language newspapers, started chats with dozens of voters on KakaoTalk, an app popular among Korean immigrants, and made announcements at his church.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/25/us/georgia-asian-american-voters.html

https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia_State_Senate_elections,_2020

She was newly elected to Senate District 48, which is centered on Duluth and was a 2018 D pickup. For some reason, both the current and previous seat holders opted not to run for reelection.

Now there will be six Asian-Americans in the Statehouse, including Michelle Au, a Chinese-American doctor who was elected to the State Senate as a Democrat this month, the result of aggressive voter registration and turnout efforts. In this election, Mr. Woo put ads in Korean-language newspapers, started chats with dozens of voters on KakaoTalk, an app popular among Korean immigrants, and made announcements at his church.

The outgoing State Senator ran for congress.