OK so what the hell happened?

[ilikeverin]

Anecdotally, I noticed during the campaign that localized increases in COVID rates sometimes related to increases in Biden's numbers in the polls - see also, Wisconsin +17. At the time, I thought that was actual signal, but perhaps it just led to a type of response bias that would be out of the typical bias correction patterns. Folks who support Trump think the virus is no big deal and were less responsive to surveying because they were out and about; folks who support Biden think the virus is scary and were doing nothing better, so they were available to be polled. This wouldn't be a Shy Trump Voter effect so much as a Busy Trump Voter effect.

[StateBoiler]

If Trump were offering ideas, it might be reasonable to expect a resounding rejection of said ideas. That's not what Trump really offered. He offered schadenfreude. He offered a middle finger to liberals, people in the cities, the political class, and those who his supporters hate. Ever notice how just about every comment about why Trump is so great always involves how he "pisses off" or "owns" someone? A lot of people are unhappy with their lives don't see a way of improving their lives, so the only way they can feel better is by putting someone else down, and they feel like they're getting that with Trump. It's very hard to soundly defeat this mindset, because it riles so many people up. This is why I don't buy that Trump has been so "electorally good" for Democrats, because I have a hard time believing that a boring Republican that had done everything Trump has done (including botching the pandemic) would be riling up the base as much, even if fewer Democrats would want to come out to reject said Republican.

We're not fighting against an ideology, we're fighting against a mindset. A sick, sadistic, selfish, and irrational mindset, yes, but one that is probably not going away any time soon.

A lot of working class democrats, I know have this viewpoint, they have discontent with the Democratic Party being the party of white professionals, artists, hipsters and college educated feminists who are ruining their place due to gentrification, or who live in white liberal corridors and want to say fyck it to these groups. A lot these voters exist and from my experience a lot of them still voted for Biden and Sanders. Hating this mindset will not get you anywhere, because these grievances are right and real.

To simplify it, the union worker voter is looking around at the party saying "WTF?" Throwing away cultural points when the union worker is naturally more conservative on those, it's always amused me that the party that wants unfettered illegal immigration across the southern border is the one that's considered "pro-labor".

The split of the unions away from the New York Working Families Party when the WFP was originally setup to be a party for the unions demonstrates this.

[Badger]

Could it be possible that Americans do not want a President that they perceive as above them? Our last 4 Presidents were a Con Artist, a black man, an idiot, and a whore.

<mind blown!>

Please note I am not saying that sarcastically

[__]

Here's the issue: if people like Joe Biden can't get a commanding victory over Trump, and we say that people like Bernie Sanders can't either, then where can the Dems win?? Are we just doomed to lose or narrowly win every election from here on out?

Why is this only about the Democratic side of this equation? Why is it about Biden or Hillary or Bernie? Did we ever just stop to think about the fact that this is maybe just about Trump and his repulsive as many of us find him there’s a large sections of this country that don’t.Why is this just about whatever Democratic candidate failing or succeeding as opposed to maybe Trump is the unique feature here.

I kind of get the feeling that between 2016 and this election, Trumpism might be here to stay for the Republicans. If that's the case, and it keeps producing favorable results with it, where do Dems have to go?

[Badger]

Bernie wouldn't have won. If he couldn't convince Democrat voters - twice - how could he convince the country?

The election last night proved that nonsense fallacious argument wrong. Sorry, bud. The Democratic Party failed.

Care to explain how? Again, it's very telling that Bernie could not gin up the necessary enthusiasm among disengaged voters to support him in the Democratic primary, where more left-leaning potential voters lie.

[tjstarling]

Here's the issue: if people like Joe Biden can't get a commanding victory over Trump, and we say that people like Bernie Sanders can't either, then where can the Dems win?? Are we just doomed to lose or narrowly win every election from here on out?

Why is this only about the Democratic side of this equation? Why is it about Biden or Hillary or Bernie? Did we ever just stop to think about the fact that this is maybe just about Trump and his repulsive as many of us find him there’s a large sections of this country that don’t.Why is this just about whatever Democratic candidate failing or succeeding as opposed to maybe Trump is the unique feature here.

I kind of get the feeling that between 2016 and this election, Trumpism might be here to stay for the Republicans. If that's the case, and it keeps producing favorable results with it, where do Dems have to go?

It is more about the messenger than the message. Trumpism might be here to stay, but it’s not clear how effective it will be without Trump. White working class voters are a long term problem, but I think any talk of permanent swings is foolish (such as with Hispanics). There was a lot of focus on the fact that Obama was great at bringing out his coalition of folks. People need to except the Trump is similar - he brings out his coalition of folks as well. Once the personality leaves (Obama or Trump), the coalition can have a hard time sticking together or turning out in future races. It’s all wait and see.

[Badger]

What happened was that your party nominated yet another uninspiring candidate for a key portion of Americans. You've spent the past year absolutely piling on the left, which you hate more than Trump or any Republican.

Well, the wages of sin is death. The Democratic Party can accomplish nothing over the next few years with McConnell's senate and Trump's Supreme Court. The former will block every legislative goal, the latter will block every executive order. The Republican Party will run on that in 2022 and flip the House before a much more competent presidential candidate goes up against Biden/Harris in 2024. Sure wish we had Bernie now, who brought out massive crowds and was running on an actual platform, not "let's beat Trump and worry about the rest later."

so where was bernie's turnout on super tuesday?

The progressive vote split. Where was Biden's downballot Blue Wave he was supposed to deliver? That's the only relevant question. His cheerleaders have to answer.

Okay, somehow theoretically give Bernie 90% of Warren's super Tuesday vote. He may not have wound up utterly crushed the way he did, but he still loses super Tuesday resigning lie. And that further ignores the fact that Bloomberg was siphoning a tangible degree of support from otherwise likely Biden supporters.

I'm sorry, but the arithmetic does not support your argument. Assuming that super Tuesday and the Democratic primaries as a whole or somehow a fluke and there were Millions upon millions of disengaged voters ready to turn out yesterday for Bernie Sanders whom almost universally failed to show up for him for on super Tuesday is.... Fanciful.

[__]

Here's the issue: if people like Joe Biden can't get a commanding victory over Trump, and we say that people like Bernie Sanders can't either, then where can the Dems win?? Are we just doomed to lose or narrowly win every election from here on out?

Why is this only about the Democratic side of this equation? Why is it about Biden or Hillary or Bernie? Did we ever just stop to think about the fact that this is maybe just about Trump and his repulsive as many of us find him there’s a large sections of this country that don’t.Why is this just about whatever Democratic candidate failing or succeeding as opposed to maybe Trump is the unique feature here.

I kind of get the feeling that between 2016 and this election, Trumpism might be here to stay for the Republicans. If that's the case, and it keeps producing favorable results with it, where do Dems have to go?

It is more about the messenger than the message. Trumpism might be here to stay, but it’s not clear how effective it will be without Trump. White working class voters are a long term problem, but I think any talk of permanent swings is foolish (such as with Hispanics). There was a lot of focus on the fact that Obama was great at bringing out his coalition of folks. People need to except the Trump is similar - he brings out his coalition of folks as well. Once the personality leaves (Obama or Trump), the coalition can have a hard time sticking together or turning out in future races. It’s all wait and see.

Wait and see is a tough one! But Trump won't be back in 2024 (unless, I suppose, he loses and wants to run again), so it will be soon politically speaking, but Dems need to have a plan before that. If they keep playing by their current playbook I don't know if they'll see success, and they can't just wait until the results come in for another reading of how their messages plays or they'll lose next time.

[Badger]

My intuition says that the Democratic Party is going to need to stop running such old candidates with name recognition and allow for some fresh faces, or even younger familiar ones, to have a shot in the primary. For now, that's my only suggestion.

Even though I 100% love Biden, a younger, fresh face is exactly what the party needs

Folks, when a republican like Trump still carries perhaps as much as 1/4 of the African-American male vote, and Democratic support among Hispanics absolutely craters like it did, arguing all that's needed is a new Fresh Face is the embodiment of putting lipstick on a pig.

There were fundamental big structural problems here. Admittedly not a little of it is related to the utterly ridiculous electoral college system considering Biden his handsomely won the popular vote, but they can't be ignored or presumed readily fixable with cosmetic changes.

[Intell]

If Trump were offering ideas, it might be reasonable to expect a resounding rejection of said ideas. That's not what Trump really offered. He offered schadenfreude. He offered a middle finger to liberals, people in the cities, the political class, and those who his supporters hate. Ever notice how just about every comment about why Trump is so great always involves how he "pisses off" or "owns" someone? A lot of people are unhappy with their lives don't see a way of improving their lives, so the only way they can feel better is by putting someone else down, and they feel like they're getting that with Trump. It's very hard to soundly defeat this mindset, because it riles so many people up. This is why I don't buy that Trump has been so "electorally good" for Democrats, because I have a hard time believing that a boring Republican that had done everything Trump has done (including botching the pandemic) would be riling up the base as much, even if fewer Democrats would want to come out to reject said Republican.

We're not fighting against an ideology, we're fighting against a mindset. A sick, sadistic, selfish, and irrational mindset, yes, but one that is probably not going away any time soon.

A lot of working class democrats, I know have this viewpoint, they have discontent with the Democratic Party being the party of white professionals, artists, hipsters and college educated feminists who are ruining their place due to gentrification, or who live in white liberal corridors and want to say fyck it to these groups. A lot these voters exist and from my experience a lot of them still voted for Biden and Sanders. Hating this mindset will not get you anywhere, because these grievances are right and real.

To simplify it, the union worker voter is looking around at the party saying "WTF?" Throwing away cultural points when the union worker is naturally more conservative on those, it's always amused me that the party that wants unfettered illegal immigration across the southern border is the one that's considered "pro-labor".

The split of the unions away from the New York Working Families Party when the WFP was originally setup to be a party for the unions demonstrates this.

Yep but it's not like a sense of social conservatism, which maybe because I've always lived in metro cities so people tend to be pro-choice, lapsing religious or secular and aren't wholly opposed to lgbt rights it's more a cultural conservatism, and more skepticism towards internationalism and immigration.

[Badger]

Easy.

White, rural Republicans do not answer robocalls.

Notably less than other people?

[VBM]

What happened was that your party nominated yet another uninspiring candidate for a key portion of Americans. You've spent the past year absolutely piling on the left, which you hate more than Trump or any Republican.

Well, the wages of sin is death. The Democratic Party can accomplish nothing over the next few years with McConnell's senate and Trump's Supreme Court. The former will block every legislative goal, the latter will block every executive order. The Republican Party will run on that in 2022 and flip the House before a much more competent presidential candidate goes up against Biden/Harris in 2024. Sure wish we had Bernie now, who brought out massive crowds and was running on an actual platform, not "let's beat Trump and worry about the rest later."

so where was bernie's turnout on super tuesday?

The progressive vote split. Where was Biden's downballot Blue Wave he was supposed to deliver? That's the only relevant question. His cheerleaders have to answer.

Okay, somehow theoretically give Bernie 90% of Warren's super Tuesday vote. He may not have wound up utterly crushed the way he did, but he still loses super Tuesday resigning lie. And that further ignores the fact that Bloomberg was siphoning a tangible degree of support from otherwise likely Biden supporters.

I'm sorry, but the arithmetic does not support your argument. Assuming that super Tuesday and the Democratic primaries as a whole or somehow a fluke and there were Millions upon millions of disengaged voters ready to turn out yesterday for Bernie Sanders whom almost universally failed to show up for him for on super Tuesday is.... Fanciful.

The Dem establishment portrayed Biden as the unifier and Bernie as Trump’s socialist twin brother, so the normie Dems went to Biden

[StateBoiler]

My intuition says that the Democratic Party is going to need to stop running such old candidates with name recognition and allow for some fresh faces, or even younger familiar ones, to have a shot in the primary. For now, that's my only suggestion.

Even though I 100% love Biden, a younger, fresh face is exactly what the party needs

Folks, when a republican like Trump still carries perhaps as much as 1/4 of the African-American male vote, and Democratic support among Hispanics absolutely craters like it did, arguing all that's needed is a new Fresh Face is the embodiment of putting lipstick on a pig.

What fresh face? Bloomberg, Warren, and Sanders aren't fresh. Buttigieg? The left and the blacks hated him. Klobuchar? Really, Klobuchar?

There were something like 25 candidates that ran this past time and Biden was hardly superpowerful until he destroyed Sanders and everyone else in South Carolina. So what fresh face of the 25 people that ran should've got more votes in the primaries and won?

[Kamala Was Right About Everything]

What happened was that your party nominated yet another uninspiring candidate for a key portion of Americans. You've spent the past year absolutely piling on the left, which you hate more than Trump or any Republican.

Well, the wages of sin is death. The Democratic Party can accomplish nothing over the next few years with McConnell's senate and Trump's Supreme Court. The former will block every legislative goal, the latter will block every executive order. The Republican Party will run on that in 2022 and flip the House before a much more competent presidential candidate goes up against Biden/Harris in 2024. Sure wish we had Bernie now, who brought out massive crowds and was running on an actual platform, not "let's beat Trump and worry about the rest later."

so where was bernie's turnout on super tuesday?

The progressive vote split. Where was Biden's downballot Blue Wave he was supposed to deliver? That's the only relevant question. His cheerleaders have to answer.

Okay, somehow theoretically give Bernie 90% of Warren's super Tuesday vote. He may not have wound up utterly crushed the way he did, but he still loses super Tuesday resigning lie. And that further ignores the fact that Bloomberg was siphoning a tangible degree of support from otherwise likely Biden supporters.

I'm sorry, but the arithmetic does not support your argument. Assuming that super Tuesday and the Democratic primaries as a whole or somehow a fluke and there were Millions upon millions of disengaged voters ready to turn out yesterday for Bernie Sanders whom almost universally failed to show up for him for on super Tuesday is.... Fanciful.

tHe aRiTHmAtIc isNt tHerE!!! 4 years of Trump and a map full of disappointments for the Democrats who were expecting a blowout should have taught you the conventional wisdom doesn't matter. You guys are so obsessed with every little number - all the Bloomberg votes would have transferred to Biden crap - that you're ignoring the fundamental transformation the race underwent overnight. Biden won without campaigning in many states. Bernie's organization was more active, more engaged, more involved in outreach to the grassroots. And it would have paid dividends now.

Right now, you have no room to talk about how the mainstream strategy paid off. Unless the lack of downballot success was the point which now means the Democrats don't have to do anything with the so called "most progressive platform in history." If so, congrats, I guess, but that's a really raw deal for the working class supporters the party is supposed to represent.

[Voice of low info America]

Trump acted more like a true Democrat than any of the Democrats did. Democrats, except for Bernie, wanted so badly to be the party of beautiful people that they forgot all the "dirty people" who were such an important part of their base. It's almost as if they didn't want them. Trump, for all his seemingly divisive rhetoric, genuinely doesn't care who votes for him, and was happy to appeal for votes from literally anyone, whether it was African-Americans, small business owners, farmers, or white nationalists. Democrats put Harris on the ticket because she checked the most demographic boxes, declared job done, and went back to courting neocons and suburbanites.

We can't all be born rich, and handsome, and lucky, and that's why we used to have the Democratic Party.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Trump acted more like a true Democrat than any of the Democrats did. Democrats, except for Bernie, wanted so badly to be the party of beautiful people that they forgot all the "dirty people" who were such an important part of their base. It's almost as if they didn't want them. Trump, for all his seemingly divisive rhetoric, genuinely doesn't care who votes for him, and was happy to appeal for votes from literally anyone, whether it was African-Americans, small business owners, farmers, or white nationalists. Democrats put Harris on the ticket because she checked the most demographic boxes, declared job done, and went back to courting neocons and suburbanites.

We can't all be born rich, and handsome, and lucky, and that's why we used to have the Democratic Party.

This is completely detached from the reality of the Biden campaign which was very heavily focused on the middle class and working class families.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Seriously people, stop using this thread to write your fantasies of the political reality you want to believe in.

Biden didn't struggle because he was too SJW or too capitalist or too elitist.  We don't really know why he struggled, but Biden didn't run an elitist SJW campaign at all, and there's no evidence to suggest that Trump voters just wanted more socialism.

[Pyro]

What happened was that your party nominated yet another uninspiring candidate for a key portion of Americans. You've spent the past year absolutely piling on the left, which you hate more than Trump or any Republican.

Well, the wages of sin is death. The Democratic Party can accomplish nothing over the next few years with McConnell's senate and Trump's Supreme Court. The former will block every legislative goal, the latter will block every executive order. The Republican Party will run on that in 2022 and flip the House before a much more competent presidential candidate goes up against Biden/Harris in 2024. Sure wish we had Bernie now, who brought out massive crowds and was running on an actual platform, not "let's beat Trump and worry about the rest later."

so where was bernie's turnout on super tuesday?

The progressive vote split. Where was Biden's downballot Blue Wave he was supposed to deliver? That's the only relevant question. His cheerleaders have to answer.

It's true that Warren siphoned votes from Bernie, although I would disagree that that was the main reason for Bernie's Super Tuesday shortcomings. I think the post-Nevada narrative of a potential Bernie nomination, almost exclusively termed negatively by the media, fed into an imagined and unsubstantiated fear that he would fare worse against Trump. After SC and the Clyburn endorsement, the Sanders Campaign believed they could win on ST if they held onto over 1/3rd of the vote in each state. The game changed when Obama pressured Klob and Pete to drop out in the days preceding ST, and Sanders couldn't/didn't react in time. Warren staying in was just the icing on the cake.

[Schumer can go f*** himself!]

If Trump were offering ideas, it might be reasonable to expect a resounding rejection of said ideas. That's not what Trump really offered. He offered schadenfreude. He offered a middle finger to liberals, people in the cities, the political class, and those who his supporters hate. Ever notice how just about every comment about why Trump is so great always involves how he "pisses off" or "owns" someone? A lot of people are unhappy with their lives don't see a way of improving their lives, so the only way they can feel better is by putting someone else down, and they feel like they're getting that with Trump. It's very hard to soundly defeat this mindset, because it riles so many people up. This is why I don't buy that Trump has been so "electorally good" for Democrats, because I have a hard time believing that a boring Republican that had done everything Trump has done (including botching the pandemic) would be riling up the base as much, even if fewer Democrats would want to come out to reject said Republican.

We're not fighting against an ideology, we're fighting against a mindset. A sick, sadistic, selfish, and irrational mindset, yes, but one that is probably not going away any time soon.

This is the best explanation I've heard so far

[GeneralMacArthur]

Biden got very good turnout -- much better than Clinton.  And he improved in the suburbs.

It seems like it's just a persuasion issue.  There's a large part of the country that wants to vote for Trump and turns out for him.  It'll be much easier to persuade them than to try to beat them when we're already close to maxing out on turnout.  Unfortunately the Dem party has a big problem where we're perceived as the party of SJW assholes, crazy NEET communists, and smarmy media know-it-alls, and until we overcome that it feels like most of Trump's bloc will just vote against Democrats on principle because they want to see those people suffer and don't want to become one of them.  And that's true regardless of our candidates or our platform.

This has been an issue for a while -- if you're on the right, that image of the Democrats is constantly reinforced by all the media you consume.  But it may be more pervasive than I previously perceived.

[Voice of low info America]

As someone who has unironically called Bernie a communist, there is no way in hell Bernie would've done worse than Biden. (or Hillary, for that matter) Trump feared Bernie more than anyone.

[Catalyst138]

None of us, and none of the Democratic Party, really know why Biden failed. And that’s the scary part.

[Hammy]

Seriously people, stop using this thread to write your fantasies of the political reality you want to believe in.

Biden didn't struggle because he was too SJW or too capitalist or too elitist.  We don't really know why he struggled, but Biden didn't run an elitist SJW campaign at all, and there's no evidence to suggest that Trump voters just wanted more socialism.

He put white suburbanites over black and Latino voters. That's the clearest answer.

Edit: Don't want to exclude Florida State Democratic Party from this, they share quite a lot of the blame there as well over the last several cycles.

[Del Tachi]

Easy.

White, rural Republicans do not answer robocalls.

Notably less than other people?

Certainly less than college-educated White women, that's for sure

[Intell]

Easy.

White, rural Republicans do not answer robocalls.

Notably less than other people?

Certainly less than college-educated White women, that's for sure

I think though was white non-college margins rather than turnout as described in the polls were the reasons Trump majorly over-performed, or am I wrong on this?