CONGRESSIONAL RESULTS MEGA THREAD

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NY-22 is going to come down to the wire. After looking at the numbers, I may go against the grain a little bit and say that Tenney is still very slightly favored. A lot depends on if the currently reported Oneida absentee numbers include Utica or not, anyone happen to know?

[bandg]

Should we be expecting another LA dump from CA-25 today?

Tomorrow per their canvass schedule: https://lavote.net/docs/rrcc/election-info/11032020_canvass-update-schedule.pdf?

BTW, that vote counting schedule is absolutely ridiculous. They are counting votes only twice a week for FIVE weeks after the election?

[bandg]

An update on NY-22. So it looks like every county has finished up their absentee ballots today, except for Chenango and Oneida. Tenney leads by 4,671 votes.

Chenango has 4500 absentee ballots to count: https://www.evesun.com/news/stories/2020-11-12/33924/Chenango-County-starts-counting-mail-in-ballots-as-election-monitors-review-them

Oneida has 5559 left to count: https://cnycentral.com/news/local/tenneys-lead-over-brindisi-narrows-as-absentee-ballots-are-counted-in-ny-22

So ~10K ballots left. Assuming about ~5% go to 3rd parties or undervotes which is the trend so far, Brindisi needs to win the two-party vote by ~75-25 in order to tie. It does seem like the remaining Oneida ballots will be from the rural areas of the county. Chenango should also be relatively favorable to Tenney. It looks like it would be tough for Brindisi to take the lead on absentees alone.

But then we have various scattered provisionals and other ballots which may be more favorable to Brindisi. Altogether, still looks like a pure tossup to me, with maybe a very slight tilt towards Tenney.

[bandg]

Re: LA county, don't think there's anything fishy actually. Prior to this week they were adding ~2000 ballots in CA-25 with each update. This slowed substantially this week due to the holiday. But I expect that we will get a final ~2000 ballot drop next Monday.

[bandg]

Ugh, 6 votes? That's disheartening. So f**king close

It’s going to court, most likely.

Unfortunately for Hart, there's really nothing for her to litigate. The only point of contention in Scott County already went in her favor. And the courts in Iowa will not be so friendly either.

[bandg]

According to the New York State Board of Elections Excel Sheets

NY-1

Lee Zeldin (R) 199,763  53,92 %

Nancy Goroff (D) 157,484  46,08 %

NY-2

Andrew Garbarino (R) 177,353  49,47 %

Jackie Gordon (D) 154,123  42,99 %

Harry Burger (G) 3,446  0,96 %

This should now be enough for the AP to call both Races.

Notable

Donald Trump lost Suffolk County to Joe Biden by about 11,000 Votes 351,643 to 340,940

Suffolk was close, but Trump won it narrowly 375,821 to 368,000. Above poster wasn't including the Conservative and Working Families ballot lines.