CONGRESSIONAL RESULTS MEGA THREAD

[UncleSam]

Does Los Angeles county have like one intern in a back room somewhere counting votes? How does it take them a week to process ~500 ballots?

[UncleSam]

So 222-211 with two races left to call?

[UncleSam]

So any chance of a do-over election in IA-02 or NY-22?

Is that even possible

[UncleSam]

Once a recount is finalized are there any additional legal options to conduct a new recount? Or is this going to stand in IA-2?

Also when does NY-22 finalize results / presumably start their own recount?

[UncleSam]

It would be a political disaster for the Democrats that would cost them a lot more than one seat in 2022 if they were to go against the certified result of the state of Iowa and seat Hart.

[UncleSam]

Honestly if an election is certified within .1% then there should just be an automatic redo. We should just admit that election administration in this country isn't perfect and that sometimes we will just never know who the true winner was.

[UncleSam]

I'm not saying it's perfect but can anyone honestly tell me that they know for sure what the result was in IA-2 or NY-22?

Ideally elections are decided by enough votes that we know for sure who won, but sometimes they're not. In those cases, we should have some mechanism for admitting that we don't know who won rather than devolving into these insane legal battles.

An alternative is that both get half the term and the certified winner gets to select which half they want.

[UncleSam]

I don't disagree with you. But I rather have a Clinton tier ground organization than Biden's (lack of), especially with Hispanic voters.

Okay. But this is the 2nd presidential election in a row against a severely flawed Republican nominee where Democratic local organization has failed them. I don't buy that's due entirely to Covid. In the past 6 federal elections going back to 2010, there's a grand total of 1 where it went well for the Democrats outside of the presidency: 2018. There's something systemic there.

Democrats did well in the Senate in 2012, they picked up Indiana and held North Dakota and Missouri. The only reason they still have a shot of 50 seats in the Senate in the Georgia runoffs is because of how well they did with that Senate class.

I’d also point out that Dems were coming off of giant wins going into 2010 and had a Dem president’s midterm for the only two years where Rs did particularly well. I don’t think Dems underperformed baseline much at all in the 2010s - if anything they overperformed.

[UncleSam]

House Democrats should agree not to seat Hart in exchange for IA-3 being turned into a Safe D seat.

There's a commission process that R's could technically mess with if they really wanted to.  Don't give them a reason by seating Hart.  The algorithm favors a compact Des Moines seat and IA-03 will have to shrink, probably by enough to flip it to a Biden win.   

Wouldn’t that be a bad thing for Dems? I feel like packing IA-3 into a Safe D seat would turn the other three into Likely R at worst, wouldn’t it? I’d think Dems would want a good shot at 2 seats in Iowa.