CONGRESSIONAL RESULTS MEGA THREAD

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

[KaiserDave]

Peninsula Gary!

[SevenEleven]

The magic words:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1329944113312133120

Pretty amazing that we flipped four California seats this year.

Yet are still short of the supposed "Dem-friendly" map that started with 2012.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Peninsula Gary!

Peninsula Peters lol

[KaiserDave]

Peninsula Gary!

Peninsula Peters lol

I'm an idiot

[Skill and Chance]

TX CDs presidential/congressional results:

TX-02: Trump (R) +1, Crenshaw (R) +13
TX-03: Trump (R) +1, Taylor (R) +12
TX-06: Trump (R) +3, Wright (R) +9
TX-07: Biden (D) +9, Fletcher (D) +3
TX-10: Trump (R) +2, McCaul (R) +7
TX-21: Trump (R) +3, Roy (R) +7
TX-22: Trump (R) +1, Nehls (R) +7
TX-23: Trump (R) +2, Gonzales (R) +4
TX-24: Biden (D) +5, Van Duyne (R) +1
TX-25: Trump (R) +10, Williams (R) +14
TX-31: Trump (R) +3, Carter (R) +9
TX-32: Biden (D) +10, Allred (D) +6

https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1329879767353593868

I guess trends are less real downballot. Would be very curious about the numbers in NJ.

Eh, just wait for the 2026 or 2030 midterm with a Republican president.  And it will be very hard to gerrymander all that to Trump 2020 numbers.  They could be counting on ticket splitting almost as much as the WV Dems by that point. 

LOL. Because TX will be a D+40 state, sure Jan.

No of course not statewide.  I'm just talking about all the ~Trump +1/~Republican House incumbent +10 districts on that list.

[2016]

https://www.wktv.com/content/news/Tenney-maintains-razor-thin-lead-in-race-against-Brindisi-573147571.html

Tenney leads by 201.

New York State Supreme Court Judge likely to decide the Outcome of NY-22, will review Questionable + Overseas Ballots Monday + Tuesday!

[KaiserDave]

If there's even a few hundred ballots out Brindisi should win

[Frenchrepublican]

TX CDs presidential/congressional results:

TX-02: Trump (R) +1, Crenshaw (R) +13
TX-03: Trump (R) +1, Taylor (R) +12
TX-06: Trump (R) +3, Wright (R) +9
TX-07: Biden (D) +9, Fletcher (D) +3
TX-10: Trump (R) +2, McCaul (R) +7
TX-21: Trump (R) +3, Roy (R) +7
TX-22: Trump (R) +1, Nehls (R) +7
TX-23: Trump (R) +2, Gonzales (R) +4
TX-24: Biden (D) +5, Van Duyne (R) +1
TX-25: Trump (R) +10, Williams (R) +14
TX-31: Trump (R) +3, Carter (R) +9
TX-32: Biden (D) +10, Allred (D) +6

https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1329879767353593868

I guess trends are less real downballot. Would be very curious about the numbers in NJ.

Eh, just wait for the 2026 or 2030 midterm with a Republican president.  And it will be very hard to gerrymander all that to Trump 2020 numbers.  They could be counting on ticket splitting almost as much as the WV Dems by that point. 

LOL. Because TX will be a D+40 state, sure Jan.

No of course not statewide.  I'm just talking about all the ~Trump +1/~Republican House incumbent +10 districts on that list.

It depends of the ability of democrats to continue to make inroads in suburbs in the post Trump era.

[lfromnj]

Trump 2020 +20ish districts should hold for the decade IMO. Downballot Rs can probably last a cycle ahead of presidential.

[Skill and Chance]

Trump 2020 +20ish districts should hold for the decade IMO. Downballot Rs can probably last a cycle ahead of presidential.

The next big test will be control of redistricting in 2030.  After the 2020 results, and with the likelihood now of an R win in 2028, I don't see Texas flipping in a presidential election for a while.

[lfromnj]

Trump 2020 +20ish districts should hold for the decade IMO. Downballot Rs can probably last a cycle ahead of presidential.

The next big test will be control of redistricting in 2030.  After the 2020 results, and with the likelihood now of an R win in 2028, I don't see Texas flipping in a presidential election for a while.

Oh the legislature is hard due to the county rule.

[2016]

If there's even a few hundred ballots out Brindisi should win

I doubt that there are few hundred Ballots out certainly not the Absentee/Mail-In Ballots that Brindisi needs and made huge strides with closing this gap. What's left are Provisional Ballots and they can go either way.

[KaiserDave]

If there's even a few hundred ballots out Brindisi should win

I doubt that there are few hundred Ballots out certainly not the Absentee/Mail-In Ballots that Brindisi needs and made huge strides with closing this gap. What's left are Provisional Ballots and they can go either way.

Rosenblatt said there are two thousand ballots out. I'm fairly confident.

[2016]

If there's even a few hundred ballots out Brindisi should win

I doubt that there are few hundred Ballots out certainly not the Absentee/Mail-In Ballots that Brindisi needs and made huge strides with closing this gap. What's left are Provisional Ballots and they can go either way.

Rosenblatt said there are two thousand ballots out. I'm fairly confident.

But he did not specify if those are Mail-In Ballots or Provisionals/Overseas Military Ballots?

Bottom Line is this:
A) If those 2K are Absentee/Mail-Ins then I agree with you Brindisi is likely going to pull it out.
B) If those Ballots are Provisionals & Overseas Military Ballots then it's a Total "Coin-Flip" IMO.

Needless to say Rosenblatt is a Democratic-liberal Hack who can't be completely trusted!

[Skill and Chance]

Trump 2020 +20ish districts should hold for the decade IMO. Downballot Rs can probably last a cycle ahead of presidential.

The next big test will be control of redistricting in 2030.  After the 2020 results, and with the likelihood now of an R win in 2028, I don't see Texas flipping in a presidential election for a while.

Oh the legislature is hard due to the county rule.

Yes, but that only applies to the lower house.  So they can still draw a hard gerrymander of the state senate, which just got a lot easier with the RGV pro-Trump swing because the districts are even bigger than CDs.  A split legislature for part of the decade is a very strong possibility, in which case legislative districts are drawn by majority vote by a panel of the House Speaker, LG, AG, Comptroller, and Land Commissioner.  This raises the possibility of controlling legislative redistricting by winning only statewide offices (Governor to veto the maps + at least 3 of the 4 on the panel).

[Matty]

Amazing to me that pelosi isn’t going to step down as speaker

[Bootes Void]

I read about Burgess Owens on wiki, that guy is a serious nutjob who needs mental help.

[Calthrina950]

Amazing to me that pelosi isn’t going to step down as speaker

I don't like Pelosi, but there is no other Democrat in the House who has the political abilities which she has, while presently being able to command a majority of the Democratic caucus. In any case, I imagine that this is Pelosi's last term as Speaker (whether or not Democrats lose the majority in the midterms), and that she will retire from leadership-if not from the House entirely-in 2022.

[KaiserDave]

If there's even a few hundred ballots out Brindisi should win

I doubt that there are few hundred Ballots out certainly not the Absentee/Mail-In Ballots that Brindisi needs and made huge strides with closing this gap. What's left are Provisional Ballots and they can go either way.

Rosenblatt said there are two thousand ballots out. I'm fairly confident.

But he did not specify if those are Mail-In Ballots or Provisionals/Overseas Military Ballots?

Bottom Line is this:
A) If those 2K are Absentee/Mail-Ins then I agree with you Brindisi is likely going to pull it out.
B) If those Ballots are Provisionals & Overseas Military Ballots then it's a Total "Coin-Flip" IMO.

Needless to say Rosenblatt is a Democratic-liberal Hack who can't be completely trusted!

And you're a hack for nonsense, sooooo

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Congressman Garcia has declared victory.

[Coastal Elitist]

https://twitter.com/MikeGarcia2020/status/1329968336730427392

[Matty]

Disaster for dems in CA

[KaiserDave]

Disaster for dems in CA

Yeah


The silver lining for them however is that the unfair maps will wipe out these guys

[S019]

Disaster for dems in CA

Yeah


The silver lining for them however is that the unfair maps will wipe out these guys

No, they are fair maps, CA has a commission, it may just have a slight Democratic tilt and may create maps slightly favorable to Democrats, but Republican maps won out on the commissions in WA and NJ last time, so it's not exactly unfair, both sides try to game the commissions, for instance, Democrats successfully gamed the AZ Commission last time and then Republicans gamed it this time. But I highly doubt the maps that some people are suggesting where say Long Beach gets paired with Newport Beach and/or Huntington Beach become reality.