CONGRESSIONAL RESULTS MEGA THREAD

[wbrocks67]

NY-22 update

Brindisi currently leads 71-26 in partial count of Madison County (about half of countywide absentees counted). Raw amounts are Brindisi 2149 Tenney 797 Total 3014.

is that good?

[cg41386]

Damn, Kean looks favored in NJ-07. Whether there's 38k or 50k+ ballots left, Kean is winning the remaining ballots by big margins, easily enough to erase his 6k deficit.

We don't have enough information to say one way or the other. Somerset isn't reporting again until tomorrow.

[n1240]

NY-22 update

Brindisi currently leads 71-26 in partial count of Madison County (about half of countywide absentees counted). Raw amounts are Brindisi 2149 Tenney 797 Total 3014.

is that good?

It's decent, at this rate he would do 2% worse in the county than 2018 which would translate roughly to a tied race. Cortland County which is apparently complete he's doing 4% worse so Tenney is still favored of course but Brindisi still has a path. I think the race ultimately comes down to whether or not Brindisi can win Oneida county and run up the score in Broome by performing better than he did in 2018 - both of which are plausible outcomes considering partisanship of ballot returns.

[LimoLiberal]

This article has 21,000 outstanding absentees and affidavits in Broome County (Binghamton), where Brindisi leads 51-46 on the initial count. That's more ballots outstanding than I saw reported previously and potentially good news for him.

http://www.wicz.com/story/42905524/broome-county-starts-the-absentee-ballot-count-races-tightening

[Young Conservative]

This article has 21,000 outstanding absentees and affidavits in Broome County (Binghamton), where Brindisi leads 51-46 on the initial count. That's more ballots outstanding than I saw reported previously and potentially good news for him.

http://www.wicz.com/story/42905524/broome-county-starts-the-absentee-ballot-count-races-tightening

He really needs to do much better than that to win.

[LimoLiberal]

NY-22 update

Brindisi currently leads 71-26 in partial count of Madison County (about half of countywide absentees counted). Raw amounts are Brindisi 2149 Tenney 797 Total 3014.

is that good?

It's decent, at this rate he would do 2% worse in the county than 2018 which would translate roughly to a tied race. Cortland County which is apparently complete he's doing 4% worse so Tenney is still favored of course but Brindisi still has a path. I think the race ultimately comes down to whether or not Brindisi can win Oneida county and run up the score in Broome by performing better than he did in 2018 - both of which are plausible outcomes considering partisanship of ballot returns.

The spreadsheet I've been using to track the remaining absentees is this: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14Z5Mxav2J3Z8RucpjNS8XfR7LObsstLNLeRJdtZ4f9g/edit#gid=554593753

It only had 4419 absentees in Cortland County yet their final count had 4776. That's 8% more than reported. The Broome County numbers I posted above would be even more than 8% more than what's on the spreadsheet. A lot of big Ifs here, but if there's 8% more absentees across the district than what's reported on that spreadsheet, that could really help out Brindisi on the margins.

[LimoLiberal]

This article has 21,000 outstanding absentees and affidavits in Broome County (Binghamton), where Brindisi leads 51-46 on the initial count. That's more ballots outstanding than I saw reported previously and potentially good news for him.

http://www.wicz.com/story/42905524/broome-county-starts-the-absentee-ballot-count-races-tightening

He really needs to do much better than that to win.

Sorry, my wording was unclear. Brindisi leads 51-46 on the election day count in Broome, as far as I know no absentees have been counted there yet.

[Matty]

Is it safe to say we won’t know till Christmas what the final house numbers will be?

[2016]

This article has 21,000 outstanding absentees and affidavits in Broome County (Binghamton), where Brindisi leads 51-46 on the initial count. That's more ballots outstanding than I saw reported previously and potentially good news for him.

http://www.wicz.com/story/42905524/broome-county-starts-the-absentee-ballot-count-races-tightening

He really needs to do much better than that to win.

TBH,
I would find it quite odd seeing Malliotakis winning and Tenney losing. You ought to believe that the Absentee Vote in Staten Island (NYC) would be a lot more Democratic compared to Upstate NY.

[LimoLiberal]

If Brindisi can get 80% of the Broome absentees, which I don't think is that unreasonable (although there might be a slight reduction in the partisan disparity between absentees and ED because of Binghamton's younger Democratic base), this race could really get interesting.

[n1240]

This article has 21,000 outstanding absentees and affidavits in Broome County (Binghamton), where Brindisi leads 51-46 on the initial count. That's more ballots outstanding than I saw reported previously and potentially good news for him.

http://www.wicz.com/story/42905524/broome-county-starts-the-absentee-ballot-count-races-tightening

https://www.wktv.com/content/news/64114-absentees-returned-so-far-in-the-22nd-Congressional-District-race-573021411.html

This is the most up-to-date I know of thus far (image says 64k but they corrected because they were accidentally including all of Oswego's absentee total instead of just the NY-22 portion).

[VAR]

Freshman orientation!

Nancy Mace

https://twitter.com/NancyMace/status/1326991993491353605

Cori Bush ready for #bipartisanship

https://twitter.com/ChadPergram/status/1326999831232077827

Cori Bush dancing

https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1326951903259996162

Jamaal Bowman

https://twitter.com/JamaalBowmanNY/status/1326931926855409666

[LimoLiberal]

NY-22 update

Brindisi currently leads 71-26 in partial count of Madison County (about half of countywide absentees counted). Raw amounts are Brindisi 2149 Tenney 797 Total 3014.

If Brindisi can match that in the second half that's really not a bad result for him. Cortland and Madison are both whiter and less-educated than the district as a whole. When comparing to 2018 results, those are the areas that Tenney should be doing the best in considering Trump's strength at the top of the ticket. Take IA-01 for example, where Finkenauer went from winning by 6 to losing by 3 from 2018 to 2020 but did only slightly worse in the cities while cratering in the rural counties.

[KaiserDave]

So many new faces

So many new people for me to despise

[LimoLiberal]

Boom. Brindisi winning Broome absentees ~79-19 in the first batch reported.

According to Republican Party Commissioner Mark Smith, the Broome County Board of Elections has nearly finished all of Johnson City's absentee ballots and about half of the ballots from the Town of Union.

For the B.C. Legislature District 12 race, the BOE reviewed and counted approximately 1,650 votes. 1,025 of those were for Karen Beebe, and 506 for Richard Balles. These votes do not include affidavit votes.

For the B.C. Family Court, so far 4,379 ballots have been reviewed and counted. 2,831 for Hollie Levine, and 1,316 for Steve Cornwell. The BOE expects there are over 14,000 more ballots to count.

And for the 22nd Congressional District seat, so far Anthony Brindisi has received 3,316 mail-in ballots and 800 for Claudia Tenney.

The Broome County Board of Elections will continue to review and count ballots, with more updates tomorrow.

http://www.wicz.com/story/42905524/broome-county-starts-the-absentee-ballot-count-races-tightening

[KaiserDave]

If Brindisi wins (as I very well think he may), given the other results, all the Atlas #Analysis of the year is exposed as very, very stupid.

[LimoLiberal]

Apparently the Broome absentees don't include much of the city of Binghamton so far.

https://twitter.com/JRosenblattTV/status/1327016172643110914

[n1240]

Apparently the Broome absentees don't include much of the city of Binghamton so far.

https://twitter.com/JRosenblattTV/status/1327016172643110914

The ballots today were from Union town, Johnson City in particular , which should still have a D lean relative to the county a whole though (Johnson City was Clinton+2 in particular). There are still a lot to count in Vestal Town, Binghamton City, and some more in Union which should help Brindisi still.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1327032188181725184?s=19

[KaiserDave]

Imagine the Atlas reaction if Smith loses and Brindisi wins.

I mean I obviously want them both to win but I prefer Brindisi winning as an FU to trends.

[2016]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1327032188181725184?s=19

I am calling this Race now for Christy Smith. There is no way that Garcias 219 Vote-lead holds up in a County where Smith has a near 5K Vote lead. Too bad for Mike!

[Skill and Chance]

Also, it's a nice to see all the panic from democrats about needing some huge popular vote margin to win both the electoral college and congress is turning out to be false. The senate is another story, but it looks like congress is going to end up being pretty representative of the national popular vote.

The EC bias likely got significantly worse vs. 2016.  Biden probably needed a 4%ish PV win to take the EC if the NY absentees skew as Dem as expected.  The deciding state is Wisconsin, not Pennsylvania because Republicans have the state delegations to reelect Trump in the House in a 269/269 tie.

However, it is impressive that Dems were able to hold the House majority with the House PV this close.  That would never have been expected in 2018.  The House PV should finish around D+3 at best.

I do think 2020 portends a better long term EC/Senate situation for Dems than 2016 did.  Georgia has been highly inelastic and could very well be a "once it goes, it's gone" situation, and the EC nightmare scenario where CA is 75% Dem for 25 years seems to have been averted.  New England swinging back hard to the left and the big swings in several Plains states suggest better possibilities in the senate down the line.

If there's anywhere this hurts in the long run, it's in the House.  The 2018 suburban districts mostly didn't swing left to the point where they are safe enough to spook R legislatures into drawing vote sinks.  The majority depends on people in 2X Trump districts now.  Texas and Florida can be safely gerrymandered for the foreseeable future.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The non metro areas around LA, SF and Oakland are so out of step with me to voters of Cali, that's why Galvin Newsom is gonna take care of this is a blue map in Reapportionment

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1327032188181725184?s=19

I am calling this Race now for Christy Smith. There is no way that Garcias 219 Vote-lead holds up in a County where Smith has a near 5K Vote lead. Too bad for Mike!

Smart call, time to look for new employment.

[lfromnj]

Assuming the last bits of Ventura break 55% for Garcia, Smith needs 51.5% of the LA county part assuming 9k votes left in LA.

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1327035451832553472