CONGRESSIONAL RESULTS MEGA THREAD

[LimoLiberal]

OH MY

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1326984680411951104?s=21

AND the AP has "Uncalled" the NJ-7 Congressional Race.

LimoLiberal right again.

[LimoLiberal]

OH MY

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1326984680411951104?s=21

AND the AP has "Uncalled" the NJ-7 Congressional Race.

They never called it to begin with you oaf.

Wrong.

[Tekken_Guy]

OH MY

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1326984680411951104?s=21

AND the AP has "Uncalled" the NJ-7 Congressional Race.

They never called it to begin with you oaf.

That was Decision Desk.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

OH MY

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1326984680411951104?s=21
AND the AP has "Uncalled" the NJ-7 Congressional Race.

They never called it to begin with you oaf.

"you oaf"..

https://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1323857833427931137?s=19

[VAR]

OH MY

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1326984680411951104?s=21
AND the AP has "Uncalled" the NJ-7 Congressional Race.

They never called it to begin with you oaf.

The NYT did just uncall it, not sure about the AP.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

OH MY

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1326984680411951104?s=21

AND the AP has "Uncalled" the NJ-7 Congressional Race.

Putting random words IN all caps doesn’t MAKE your post stand OUT.  It just makes YOU sound like an IDIOT.

[GALeftist]

OH MY

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1326984680411951104?s=21

AND the AP has "Uncalled" the NJ-7 Congressional Race.

They never called it to begin with you oaf.

That was Decision Desk.

Ah, my mistake. It seems that all along the oaf was I.

[Tekken_Guy]

What do we need to see in order to make a call for NJ07?

[Woody]

IT'S HAPPENING. 214-221

[GALeftist]

What do we need to see in order to make a call for NJ07?

I suspect it will be right down to the wire, meaning that we probably won't see a winner called (again ) until close to 100% of the vote is in, especially since the AP with its precinct-level data has uncalled the race (although to my knowledge Fox has not). With that being said, it seems as though most of the uncounted votes are from Essex and Morris, with fewer from Somerset and Warren. Going forward I would look to see if the late counting ballots are enough to flip back Morris, where Biden currently has a 6 point lead. It would also be good for Kean if he can minimize the leads Malinowski would want out of Essex. Obviously, though, I'm far from the most experienced here, so take that with a grain of salt

[cg41386]

What do we need to see in order to make a call for NJ07?

I suspect it will be right down to the wire, meaning that we probably won't see a winner called (again ) until close to 100% of the vote is in, especially since the AP with its precinct-level data has uncalled the race (although to my knowledge Fox has not). With that being said, it seems as though most of the uncounted votes are from Essex and Morris, with fewer from Somerset and Warren. Going forward I would look to see if the late counting ballots are enough to flip back Morris, where Biden currently has a 6 point lead. It would also be good for Kean if he can minimize the leads Malinowski would want out of Essex. Obviously, though, I'm far from the most experienced here, so take that with a grain of salt

If I'm interpreting the data correctly, there aren't that many outstanding votes from Essex. There are still plenty from Somerset, which is the county I would be focusing on most, along with Morris and Union.

[lfromnj]

IT'S HAPPENING. 214-221

Wrong 214 though

[wbrocks67]

Also, to clarify, there are NO mail is left in NJ07. Everything left is election day provisionals (or provisionals of other kind/military/overseas, etc.)

So I highly doubt there are as many as 39K left.

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1326994334479233037

[wbrocks67]

BTW, we are assuming the Delgado and Maloney seats are safe right? That would add 2 more to Dems total.

Tenney/Brindisi race is tossup I guess.

[n1240]

Also, to clarify, there are NO mail is left in NJ07. Everything left is election day provisionals (or provisionals of other kind/military/overseas, etc.)

So I highly doubt there are as many as 39K left.

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1326994334479233037

https://www.northjersey.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/11/nj-election-2020-mail-in-ballots-hit-4-4-million-heres-turnout-by-county/6235249002/

You can check the county results for mail returned and find that a number are lagging behind, there absolutely is mail left to count

https://www.northjersey.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/12/nj-election-2020-thousands-provisional-ballots-still-need-to-be-counted/6257274002/

"The presidential race helped boost turnout to over 4.4 million in New Jersey this year, according to state election data. That does not include voters who cast provisional ballots"

[n1240]

BTW, we are assuming the Delgado and Maloney seats are safe right? That would add 2 more to Dems total.

Tenney/Brindisi race is tossup I guess.

NY-18 and NY-19 should be called realistically. NY-03 should as well but they probably won't because the R is still up there, but all these races will be double digit Dem wins in the end.

edit: should also call NY-24 for Katko - about 30% of ballots counted (mostly in Dem leaning Onondaga) and margin only decreased by 9k votes.

[2016]

Beginning to wonder if Republicans would have had a chance retaking the House if the Networks wouldn't have made that House Call so early. They may have robbled McCarthy a chance to become Speaker, suppressed a lot of GOP Votes in half of the Country.

[wbrocks67]

Also, to clarify, there are NO mail is left in NJ07. Everything left is election day provisionals (or provisionals of other kind/military/overseas, etc.)

So I highly doubt there are as many as 39K left.

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1326994334479233037

https://www.northjersey.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/11/nj-election-2020-mail-in-ballots-hit-4-4-million-heres-turnout-by-county/6235249002/

You can check the county results for mail returned and find that a number are lagging behind, there absolutely is mail left to count

https://www.northjersey.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/12/nj-election-2020-thousands-provisional-ballots-still-need-to-be-counted/6257274002/

"The presidential race helped boost turnout to over 4.4 million in New Jersey this year, according to state election data. That does not include voters who cast provisional ballots"

Right, but those "mail in ballots" left could be provisional ballots that people returned on election day. If many waited until election day to cast their ballot, there would theoretically be a lot of mail in votes that will be "unreturned"

There is 4.1 million counted right now, so 300k statewide seems about right. If there were no provisionals in that total, it could be hundreds of thousands more than 300k left which again, seems like *a lot* to me.

If that's the case, then Biden is likely to win by even less than Hillary if they continue the way they're going.

[kwabbit]

Beginning to wonder if Republicans would have had a chance retaking the House if the Networks wouldn't have made that House Call so early. They may have robbled McCarthy a chance to become Speaker, suppressed a lot of GOP Votes in half of the Country.

Probably not. I don't see what 5 CDs in the West that they would have won that they aren't winning now. Most of the close races where that could've mattered are going the GOP's way. Most people aren't voting on the basis of whether the house was competitive; the presidential race probably drives 95% of the turnout.

[kwabbit]

Damn, Kean looks favored in NJ-07. Whether there's 38k or 50k+ ballots left, Kean is winning the remaining ballots by big margins, easily enough to erase his 6k deficit.

[VAR]

Beginning to wonder if Republicans would have had a chance retaking the House if the Networks wouldn't have made that House Call so early. They may have robbled McCarthy a chance to become Speaker, suppressed a lot of GOP Votes in half of the Country.

Oh, we could've retaken the House if we didn't spend in Arkansas and Western North Carolina of all places and instead targeted Jared Golden, Cheri Bustos, and Ron Kind.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/repdonyoung/status/1326996302765445120

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/repdonyoung/status/1326996302765445120

The Dean of the House, right after winning reelection, contracting the virus...is something. At the rate cases are exploding in this country, everyone is going to get the virus at this point.

[GALeftist]

Beginning to wonder if Republicans would have had a chance retaking the House if the Networks wouldn't have made that House Call so early. They may have robbled McCarthy a chance to become Speaker, suppressed a lot of GOP Votes in half of the Country.

Oh, we could've retaken the House if we didn't spend in Arkansas and Western North Carolina of all places and instead targeted Jared Golden, Cheri Bustos, and Ron Kind.

Spending, like, a tiny bit more time in Iowa might have paid dividends, too, now that Daddy Loebsack is gone.

[n1240]

NY-22 update

Brindisi currently leads 71-26 in partial count of Madison County (about half of countywide absentees counted). Raw amounts are Brindisi 2149 Tenney 797 Total 3014.