CONGRESSIONAL RESULTS MEGA THREAD

[n1240]

Didn't actually realize this but Utah County is nearly done with UT-04 (they seemed to prioritize counting UT-04 ballots). Not seeing evidence that SLC is prioritizing these ballots and them seem to have a considerable chunk left, and considering the geographical bias of batches I think McAdams is still favored as is (his best cities like Millcreek and Murray are lagging behind on counted votes while Herriman and Bluffdale seem overrepresented, which are strong for Owens).

[wbrocks67]

Given the environment, it would be very impressive if McAdams hung on in the end. (even given Owens is apparently a crackpot)

[wbrocks67]

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/margin-in-nj-7-down-to-14405-votes/

Per NJ Globe, Malinowski is up 14K in NJ-07, with 70K uncounted (presumably including provisionals, which are expected to be heavily R). For comparison, he was up by 28K on election night. A lot of the uncounted ballots are from Morris, where Kean has been gaining with each ballot drop. This one isn't over.

Provisionals have varied by state, but not sure where the CW that they are heavily R comes from, as in places like PA, they've been about an even split, even plurality wise benefitting Ds.

I guess NJ is counting in order though? Is that why these late ballots have trended R?

[n1240]

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/margin-in-nj-7-down-to-14405-votes/

Per NJ Globe, Malinowski is up 14K in NJ-07, with 70K uncounted (presumably including provisionals, which are expected to be heavily R). For comparison, he was up by 28K on election night. A lot of the uncounted ballots are from Morris, where Kean has been gaining with each ballot drop. This one isn't over.

Provisionals have varied by state, but not sure where the CW that they are heavily R comes from, as in places like PA, they've been about an even split, even plurality wise benefitting Ds.

I guess NJ is counting in order though? Is that why these late ballots have trended R?

NJ has transitioned to near-full VBM so anyone who actually shows up on election day to vote (with exception of voters with disabilities) are given a provisional ballot, so therefore these ballots will be significantly Republican.

[Roll Roons]

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/margin-in-nj-7-down-to-14405-votes/

Per NJ Globe, Malinowski is up 14K in NJ-07, with 70K uncounted (presumably including provisionals, which are expected to be heavily R). For comparison, he was up by 28K on election night. A lot of the uncounted ballots are from Morris, where Kean has been gaining with each ballot drop. This one isn't over.

Provisionals have varied by state, but not sure where the CW that they are heavily R comes from, as in places like PA, they've been about an even split, even plurality wise benefitting Ds.

I guess NJ is counting in order though? Is that why these late ballots have trended R?

Yeah, they're counting in order received. Biden's statewide lead has also dropped from 24% on Election Night to 17% now.

NJ implemented a system that was pretty much entirely VBM, so if someone wanted to vote in person, it was provisional. Given the known partisan divide between mail and in-person, provisionals will be probably be strongly R. This is really giving me Valadao-Cox 2018 vibes.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/margin-in-nj-7-down-to-14405-votes/

Per NJ Globe, Malinowski is up 14K in NJ-07, with 70K uncounted (presumably including provisionals, which are expected to be heavily R). For comparison, he was up by 28K on election night. A lot of the uncounted ballots are from Morris, where Kean has been gaining with each ballot drop. This one isn't over.

Provisionals have varied by state, but not sure where the CW that they are heavily R comes from, as in places like PA, they've been about an even split, even plurality wise benefitting Ds.

I guess NJ is counting in order though? Is that why these late ballots have trended R?

NJ has transitioned to near-full VBM so anyone who actually shows up on election day to vote (with exception of voters with disabilities) are given a provisional ballot, so therefore these ballots will be significantly Republican.

The problem for Kean is he is underperforming Trump 2016 by quite a bit in Hunterdon County. He needs to make up a lot of ground to win.

[2016]

Didn't actually realize this but Utah County is nearly done with UT-04 (they seemed to prioritize counting UT-04 ballots). Not seeing evidence that SLC is prioritizing these ballots and them seem to have a considerable chunk left, and considering the geographical bias of batches I think McAdams is still favored as is (his best cities like Millcreek and Murray are lagging behind on counted votes while Herriman and Bluffdale seem overrepresented, which are strong for Owens).

You applying Apples and Oranges here. Because of the Pandemic most of the Democratic-favorable Ballots are in pretty much in every single Congressional Race safe for New York State. Democrats voted early and those Ballots are counted first in most of the States. The later the Voters drop their Ballots the more favorable they become for Republican Congressional Candidates. SLC I guarantee you that has mostly late Ballots left.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/margin-in-nj-7-down-to-14405-votes/

Per NJ Globe, Malinowski is up 14K in NJ-07, with 70K uncounted (presumably including provisionals, which are expected to be heavily R). For comparison, he was up by 28K on election night. A lot of the uncounted ballots are from Morris, where Kean has been gaining with each ballot drop. This one isn't over.

Kean will win, probably with a 5K margin or more.

Kim looks golden in CA-39, Steele has won in CA-48 and Valadao will probably win in CA-21. I think Garcia is favored in CA-25 as well. If Owens holds on in Utah and Marianette Miller-Meeks somehow takes the lead in the recount Rs will net 12 seats for a 220-214 Democratic majority. Republicans would then have been like 20,000 votes (IA-03, IL-14, TX-15) from a House majority.

Holy sh**t.

Republicans must be kicking themselves for triaging ME-2 so quickly and not even bothering on NY-19.

[Young Conservative]

https://twitter.com/henryolsenEPPC/status/1325957574370361344

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1325960187400761344?s=19

[wbrocks67]

Given what has happened in the House races the last week, it would truly be something if Smith of all people made a come back and won.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1325960683238825984?s=19

[Matty]

Smith’s district is just too Biden for Garcia to have a chance

[Tekken_Guy]

Given what has happened in the House races the last week, it would truly be something if Smith of all people made a come back and won.

One-term rental it is. Garcia will win it back in 2022.

[n1240]

Didn't actually realize this but Utah County is nearly done with UT-04 (they seemed to prioritize counting UT-04 ballots). Not seeing evidence that SLC is prioritizing these ballots and them seem to have a considerable chunk left, and considering the geographical bias of batches I think McAdams is still favored as is (his best cities like Millcreek and Murray are lagging behind on counted votes while Herriman and Bluffdale seem overrepresented, which are strong for Owens).

You applying Apples and Oranges here. Because of the Pandemic most of the Democratic-favorable Ballots are in pretty much in every single Congressional Race safe for New York State. Democrats voted early and those Ballots are counted first in most of the States. The later the Voters drop their Ballots the more favorable they become for Republican Congressional Candidates. SLC I guarantee you that has mostly late Ballots left.

I mean, I closely followed this race in UT-04 and know for a fact that SLC has a weird reporting tendency to drop some relatively pro R batches and some relatively pro D batches. Of the last three batches, McAdams won Friday by 18 (expected 23 based on ballot distribution), Owens won Saturday by 7 (expected McAdams+5 based on ballot distribution), and McAdams won by .3% today (expected McAdams+8 on ballot distribution). So clearly McAdams is doing a bit worse on the ballots counted post election day but it's not atrocious, and if the outstanding ballots are disproportionately distributed in pro-McAdams precincts then he can eek out a 1-2k vote lead. Unfortunately we don't really know exactly the remaining distribution of ballots as is but given that the pro-Owens cities are reporting a higher percentage of total vote than historically and pro-McAdams places are lagging behind it's entirely possible that the remaining ballots are from somewhat pro-McAdams areas.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1325967639823314944?s=19

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Given what has happened in the House races the last week, it would truly be something if Smith of all people made a come back and won.

One-term rental it is. Garcia will win it back in 2022.

No, he probably won't, if we're not winning it this time, I don't see him running again.

[Tekken_Guy]

Given what has happened in the House races the last week, it would truly be something if Smith of all people made a come back and won.

One-term rental it is. Garcia will win it back in 2022.

No, he probably won't, if we're not winning it this time, I don't see him running again.

Except if he loses, it will be by a very narrow margin. And 2022 is certainly going to be a very Republican-friendly year. And this seems to be the kind of district that will start to vote downballot like the 21st. I'll be surprised if he doesn't come back for a rematch.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Given what has happened in the House races the last week, it would truly be something if Smith of all people made a come back and won.

One-term rental it is. Garcia will win it back in 2022.

No, he probably won't, if we're not winning it this time, I don't see him running again.

Except if he loses, it will be by a very narrow margin. And 2022 is certainly going to be a very Republican-friendly year. And this seems to be the kind of district that will start to vote downballot like the 21st. I'll be surprised if he doesn't come back for a rematch.

I'm saying, that as his staffer, I feel as though he might not be up for going another round, I'd hope he would, but still, my thoughts stand.

[2016]

Given what has happened in the House races the last week, it would truly be something if Smith of all people made a come back and won.

One-term rental it is. Garcia will win it back in 2022.

No, he probably won't, if we're not winning it this time, I don't see him running again.

Well, the Smith vs Garcia was the toughest for us to get! I'm happy if we get Michelle Park Steel, Young Kim and David Valadao back + Nicolle Malliotakis & Claudia Tenney in New York!

[SevenEleven]

Given what has happened in the House races the last week, it would truly be something if Smith of all people made a come back and won.

One-term rental it is. Garcia will win it back in 2022.

No, he probably won't, if we're not winning it this time, I don't see him running again.

Except if he loses, it will be by a very narrow margin. And 2022 is certainly going to be a very Republican-friendly year. And this seems to be the kind of district that will start to vote downballot like the 21st. I'll be surprised if he doesn't come back for a rematch.

District will be different after redistricting. There's no Republican areas surrounding it and CA is losing a seat.

[Tekken_Guy]

Given what has happened in the House races the last week, it would truly be something if Smith of all people made a come back and won.

One-term rental it is. Garcia will win it back in 2022.

No, he probably won't, if we're not winning it this time, I don't see him running again.

Except if he loses, it will be by a very narrow margin. And 2022 is certainly going to be a very Republican-friendly year. And this seems to be the kind of district that will start to vote downballot like the 21st. I'll be surprised if he doesn't come back for a rematch.

District will be different after redistricting. There's no Republican areas surrounding it and CA is losing a seat.

And yet it's likely to be very R-friendly downballot. Lots of Latinos there who Dems have become weak with.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Given what has happened in the House races the last week, it would truly be something if Smith of all people made a come back and won.

One-term rental it is. Garcia will win it back in 2022.

No, he probably won't, if we're not winning it this time, I don't see him running again.

Well, the Smith vs Garcia was the toughest for us to get! I'm happy if we get Michelle Park Steel, Young Kim and David Valadao back + Nicolle Malliotakis & Claudia Tenney in New York!

I'm not, I enjoyed having a job.

[SevenEleven]

Given what has happened in the House races the last week, it would truly be something if Smith of all people made a come back and won.

One-term rental it is. Garcia will win it back in 2022.

No, he probably won't, if we're not winning it this time, I don't see him running again.

Except if he loses, it will be by a very narrow margin. And 2022 is certainly going to be a very Republican-friendly year. And this seems to be the kind of district that will start to vote downballot like the 21st. I'll be surprised if he doesn't come back for a rematch.

District will be different after redistricting. There's no Republican areas surrounding it and CA is losing a seat.

And yet it's likely to be very R-friendly downballot. Lots of Latinos there who Dems have become weak with.

??

There's not many Latinos there. Only 33%, with maybe only 20% being CVAP and then not turning out regularly. White suburbanites+AAs moving to Antelope Valley.

[Tekken_Guy]

Given what has happened in the House races the last week, it would truly be something if Smith of all people made a come back and won.

One-term rental it is. Garcia will win it back in 2022.

No, he probably won't, if we're not winning it this time, I don't see him running again.

Except if he loses, it will be by a very narrow margin. And 2022 is certainly going to be a very Republican-friendly year. And this seems to be the kind of district that will start to vote downballot like the 21st. I'll be surprised if he doesn't come back for a rematch.

District will be different after redistricting. There's no Republican areas surrounding it and CA is losing a seat.

And yet it's likely to be very R-friendly downballot. Lots of Latinos there who Dems have become weak with.

??

There's not many Latinos there. Only 33%, with maybe only 20% being CVAP and then not turning out regularly. White suburbanites+AAs moving to Antelope Valley.

Honestly depends on how Biden did in the district. Then we can see if it's friendly enough for Garcia to win it back.