CONGRESSIONAL RESULTS MEGA THREAD

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

 U. S. Representative -- 5th Congressional District
Early & Absentee Reporting - 23 of 24 parishes
Election Day Reporting - 345 of 825 precincts
Votes
16,614
 
Lance Harris (REP)
 
38%
27,443
 
Luke J. Letlow (REP)
 
62%
Total: 44,057

[2016]

Looks like Letlow will be the new Congressman come January.

Meanwhile CNN/NBC have finally called CA-25!!!!!

[2016]

AP + NYT PROJECTS that Luke Letlow, CoS to Rep. Ralph Abraham, who is retiring, will become the new Congressman defeating Lance Harris in the LA-5 Runoff Election.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

U. S. Representative -- 5th Congressional District
 
Early & Absentee Reporting - 24 of 24 parishes
Election Day Reporting - 821 of 825 precincts
30051 Lance Harris (REP)38%
48935 Luke J. Letlow (REP)62%
Total: 78986

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

 Early & Absentee Reporting - 24 of 24 parishes
Election Day Reporting - 825 of 825 precincts
Votes
30,124
 
Lance Harris (REP)
 
38%
49,182
 
Luke J. Letlow (REP)
 
62%
Total: 79,306
Unofficial Turnout: 15.0%

[StateBoiler]

Democrats really needed to find a balance between being safe and still having a GOTV effort.

Just...wear masks and keep a reasonable distance. I think not having a GOTV and door knocking effort was a massive and entirely avoidable own goal.

Too easy to just blame Covid. They didn't have a strong GOTV effort 4 years ago either.

[KaiserDave]

Democrats really needed to find a balance between being safe and still having a GOTV effort.

Just...wear masks and keep a reasonable distance. I think not having a GOTV and door knocking effort was a massive and entirely avoidable own goal.

Too easy to just blame Covid. They didn't have a strong GOTV effort 4 years ago either.

At least they had one

[StateBoiler]

Democrats really needed to find a balance between being safe and still having a GOTV effort.

Just...wear masks and keep a reasonable distance. I think not having a GOTV and door knocking effort was a massive and entirely avoidable own goal.

Too easy to just blame Covid. They didn't have a strong GOTV effort 4 years ago either.

At least they had one

The Clinton campaign literally called a union local from out-of-state that was on a bus the week before the election heading to Detroit where the local heard from their on-the-ground sources there were problems, and told them to turn around. The Clinton campaign did not believe in low-level, person-centric politics at all.

[KaiserDave]

Democrats really needed to find a balance between being safe and still having a GOTV effort.

Just...wear masks and keep a reasonable distance. I think not having a GOTV and door knocking effort was a massive and entirely avoidable own goal.

Too easy to just blame Covid. They didn't have a strong GOTV effort 4 years ago either.

At least they had one

The Clinton campaign literally called a union local from out-of-state that was on a bus the week before the election heading to Detroit where the local heard from their on-the-ground sources there were problems, and told them to turn around. The Clinton campaign did not believe in low-level, person-centric politics at all.

At least they had on the ground sources

[KaiserDave]

I don't dispute that Hillary Clinton had a horrid ground operation....but at least she had one. And those often make a difference with Latino voters. The all digital approach was lazy and stupid.

[VAR]

Lol, Sara Gideon ended the campaign with $15 million in cash on hand.

Kelly - $2 million
McSally - $7 million
Gardner - $1 million
Hickenlooper - $2.5 million
Ernst - $1 million
McConnell - $10.5 million
McGrath - $3.5 million
Peters - $2 million
James - $2.5 million
Smith - $1 million
Bullock - $1 million
Tillis - $1 million
Graham - $10 million
Harrison - $1 million

[StateBoiler]

Democrats really needed to find a balance between being safe and still having a GOTV effort.

Just...wear masks and keep a reasonable distance. I think not having a GOTV and door knocking effort was a massive and entirely avoidable own goal.

Too easy to just blame Covid. They didn't have a strong GOTV effort 4 years ago either.

At least they had one

The Clinton campaign literally called a union local from out-of-state that was on a bus the week before the election heading to Detroit where the local heard from their on-the-ground sources there were problems, and told them to turn around. The Clinton campaign did not believe in low-level, person-centric politics at all.

At least they had on the ground sources

That was the union local. It wasn't the Clinton campaign. To show I'm not making sh**t up, here's the Politico article.

https://www.politico.com/story/2016/12/michigan-hillary-clinton-trump-232547

How Clinton lost Michigan — and blew the election
Across battlegrounds, Democrats blame HQ’s stubborn commitment to a one-size-fits-all strategy.

By EDWARD-ISAAC DOVERE 12/14/2016 05:08 AM EST

Everybody could see Hillary Clinton was cooked in Iowa. So when, a week-and-a-half out, the Service Employees International Union started hearing anxiety out of Michigan, union officials decided to reroute their volunteers, giving a desperate team on the ground around Detroit some hope.

They started prepping meals and organizing hotel rooms.

SEIU — which had wanted to go to Michigan from the beginning, but been ordered not to — dialed Clinton’s top campaign aides to tell them about the new plan. According to several people familiar with the call, Brooklyn was furious.

Posting entire news articles is not allowed.

If I had to back of the envelope simplistic two-cent take of the difference between Republicans and Democrats, it's Republicans believe in organization (Trump doesn't, but he's not really a Republican anyway) and Democrats don't. Democrats are like how Trump views things: everything comes from up top and we don't give a rat's ass about the grassroots and how they function.

[KaiserDave]

Democrats really needed to find a balance between being safe and still having a GOTV effort.

Just...wear masks and keep a reasonable distance. I think not having a GOTV and door knocking effort was a massive and entirely avoidable own goal.

Too easy to just blame Covid. They didn't have a strong GOTV effort 4 years ago either.

At least they had one

The Clinton campaign literally called a union local from out-of-state that was on a bus the week before the election heading to Detroit where the local heard from their on-the-ground sources there were problems, and told them to turn around. The Clinton campaign did not believe in low-level, person-centric politics at all.

At least they had on the ground sources

That was the union local. It wasn't the Clinton campaign. To show I'm not making sh**t up, here's the Politico article.

https://www.politico.com/story/2016/12/michigan-hillary-clinton-trump-232547

How Clinton lost Michigan — and blew the election
Across battlegrounds, Democrats blame HQ’s stubborn commitment to a one-size-fits-all strategy.

By EDWARD-ISAAC DOVERE 12/14/2016 05:08 AM EST

Everybody could see Hillary Clinton was cooked in Iowa. So when, a week-and-a-half out, the Service Employees International Union started hearing anxiety out of Michigan, union officials decided to reroute their volunteers, giving a desperate team on the ground around Detroit some hope.

They started prepping meals and organizing hotel rooms.

SEIU — which had wanted to go to Michigan from the beginning, but been ordered not to — dialed Clinton’s top campaign aides to tell them about the new plan. According to several people familiar with the call, Brooklyn was furious.
[...]

If I had to back of the envelope simplistic two-cent take of the difference between Republicans and Democrats, it's Republicans believe in organization (Trump doesn't, but he's not really a Republican anyway) and Democrats don't. Democrats are like how Trump views things: everything comes from up top and we don't give a rat's ass about the grassroots and how they function.

I don't disagree with you. But I rather have a Clinton tier ground organization than Biden's (lack of), especially with Hispanic voters.

[StateBoiler]

I don't disagree with you. But I rather have a Clinton tier ground organization than Biden's (lack of), especially with Hispanic voters.

Okay. But this is the 2nd presidential election in a row against a severely flawed Republican nominee where Democratic local organization has failed them. I don't buy that's due entirely to Covid. In the past 6 federal elections going back to 2010, there's a grand total of 1 where it went well for the Democrats outside of the presidency: 2018. There's something systemic there.

[KaiserDave]

I don't disagree with you. But I rather have a Clinton tier ground organization than Biden's (lack of), especially with Hispanic voters.

Okay. But this is the 2nd presidential election in a row against a severely flawed Republican nominee where Democratic local organization has failed them. I don't buy that's due entirely to Covid. In the past 6 federal elections going back to 2010, there's a grand total of 1 where it went well for the Democrats outside of the presidency: 2018. There's something systemic there.

Well, perhaps, but we wouldn't know that from 2020. We'll have to wait and see what happens in two years.

[WIResident]

I don't disagree with you. But I rather have a Clinton tier ground organization than Biden's (lack of), especially with Hispanic voters.

Okay. But this is the 2nd presidential election in a row against a severely flawed Republican nominee where Democratic local organization has failed them. I don't buy that's due entirely to Covid. In the past 6 federal elections going back to 2010, there's a grand total of 1 where it went well for the Democrats outside of the presidency: 2018. There's something systemic there.

Democrats did well in the Senate in 2012, they picked up Indiana and held North Dakota and Missouri. The only reason they still have a shot of 50 seats in the Senate in the Georgia runoffs is because of how well they did with that Senate class.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/JRosenblattTV/status/1336013707340615682?s=19

[KaiserDave]

Lol New York.

This is gonna take months

[UncleSam]

I don't disagree with you. But I rather have a Clinton tier ground organization than Biden's (lack of), especially with Hispanic voters.

Okay. But this is the 2nd presidential election in a row against a severely flawed Republican nominee where Democratic local organization has failed them. I don't buy that's due entirely to Covid. In the past 6 federal elections going back to 2010, there's a grand total of 1 where it went well for the Democrats outside of the presidency: 2018. There's something systemic there.

Democrats did well in the Senate in 2012, they picked up Indiana and held North Dakota and Missouri. The only reason they still have a shot of 50 seats in the Senate in the Georgia runoffs is because of how well they did with that Senate class.

I’d also point out that Dems were coming off of giant wins going into 2010 and had a Dem president’s midterm for the only two years where Rs did particularly well. I don’t think Dems underperformed baseline much at all in the 2010s - if anything they overperformed.

[zorkpolitics]

Way back before the election Cook, the NY Times, 538 and others were predicting the Democrats would pick up 10-15 seats in the House, of course that didn’t happen.   The GOP picked up at least a net 11 seats and they are still leading in the remaining 2.  So why would anyone ever listen to Cook et al?
First of all, the national congressional vote did favor the Democrats by about 3%.  Indeed to flip the net 11 GOP gain to a net 10 Democrat gain, would take about a shift of 2.5% of the GOP voters to vote for the Democrats.  Moreover, a look at the Cook predictions actually suggests they know what they were doing.  The average victory of the winners in Likely, Lean, and Tossup categories is very informative:

Likely GOP, GOP won all 11 seats by an average of 13%
Lean GOP, GOP won all 14 seats by an average of 11%
Toss-up GOP, GOP won all 18 seats by an average of 6%
Toss-up Democrats, GOP won all 9 by an average of 4%
Lean Democratic, the GOP won only 5/18 and the Democrats won by an average of 2%
Likely Democratic, the GOP won only 2/18 and the Democrats won by an average of 7%

[StateBoiler]

I don't disagree with you. But I rather have a Clinton tier ground organization than Biden's (lack of), especially with Hispanic voters.

Okay. But this is the 2nd presidential election in a row against a severely flawed Republican nominee where Democratic local organization has failed them. I don't buy that's due entirely to Covid. In the past 6 federal elections going back to 2010, there's a grand total of 1 where it went well for the Democrats outside of the presidency: 2018. There's something systemic there.

Democrats did well in the Senate in 2012, they picked up Indiana and held North Dakota and Missouri. The only reason they still have a shot of 50 seats in the Senate in the Georgia runoffs is because of how well they did with that Senate class.

I’d also point out that Dems were coming off of giant wins going into 2010 and had a Dem president’s midterm for the only two years where Rs did particularly well. I don’t think Dems underperformed baseline much at all in the 2010s - if anything they overperformed.

2008: 55 U.S. Senate seats
2016: 46
2020: 49, 50, or 51

Senate seats are statewide, by definition not gerrymandered.

2008: 256 U.S. House seats
2016: 194
2020: 222 or 223

2008: 28 Governorships
2016: 16
2020: 24

Governor seats are statewide, by definition not gerrymandered.

2008 to 2016: loss of 968 seats in state legislatures per Ballotpedia (Barack Obama's lasting embrace to the national Democratic Party organization; if you actually care about left-wing or liberal causes and getting them implemented, any time Barack Obama's name comes up this should be the first thing you should mention)
2018: Democrats gained 350 seats per Wikipedia
2020: CNAlysis projected Democrats to win 123 state legislature seats, they instead lost seats and there appears to not be a final number yet, looks like as of a couple weeks the Republicans netted an 86-seat gain, clawing back about 25% of the 2018 losses

Throw on top of this we have a midterm coming up where the president's party always loses seats.

If they overperformed, wow Democrats are f#@&ing terrible at their jobs.

[Del Tachi]

I don't disagree with you. But I rather have a Clinton tier ground organization than Biden's (lack of), especially with Hispanic voters.

Okay. But this is the 2nd presidential election in a row against a severely flawed Republican nominee where Democratic local organization has failed them. I don't buy that's due entirely to Covid. In the past 6 federal elections going back to 2010, there's a grand total of 1 where it went well for the Democrats outside of the presidency: 2018. There's something systemic there.

Democrats did well in the Senate in 2012, they picked up Indiana and held North Dakota and Missouri. The only reason they still have a shot of 50 seats in the Senate in the Georgia runoffs is because of how well they did with that Senate class.

What?  Democrats lost those three seats (ND, MO and IN) in 2018.  If they had been able to win those races that in 2018, they'd already be sitting at a senate majority before resolution of the GA runoffs.

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/JRosenblattTV/status/1336358907200090113

[KaiserDave]

Good news for Anthony

[Mr.Phips]

I don't disagree with you. But I rather have a Clinton tier ground organization than Biden's (lack of), especially with Hispanic voters.

Okay. But this is the 2nd presidential election in a row against a severely flawed Republican nominee where Democratic local organization has failed them. I don't buy that's due entirely to Covid. In the past 6 federal elections going back to 2010, there's a grand total of 1 where it went well for the Democrats outside of the presidency: 2018. There's something systemic there.

Democrats did well in the Senate in 2012, they picked up Indiana and held North Dakota and Missouri. The only reason they still have a shot of 50 seats in the Senate in the Georgia runoffs is because of how well they did with that Senate class.

I’d also point out that Dems were coming off of giant wins going into 2010 and had a Dem president’s midterm for the only two years where Rs did particularly well. I don’t think Dems underperformed baseline much at all in the 2010s - if anything they overperformed.

2008: 55 U.S. Senate seats
2016: 46
2020: 49, 50, or 51

Senate seats are statewide, by definition not gerrymandered.

2008: 256 U.S. House seats
2016: 194
2020: 222 or 223

2008: 28 Governorships
2016: 16
2020: 24

Governor seats are statewide, by definition not gerrymandered.

2008 to 2016: loss of 968 seats in state legislatures per Ballotpedia (Barack Obama's lasting embrace to the national Democratic Party organization; if you actually care about left-wing or liberal causes and getting them implemented, any time Barack Obama's name comes up this should be the first thing you should mention)
2018: Democrats gained 350 seats per Wikipedia
2020: CNAlysis projected Democrats to win 123 state legislature seats, they instead lost seats and there appears to not be a final number yet, looks like as of a couple weeks the Republicans netted an 86-seat gain, clawing back about 25% of the 2018 losses

Throw on top of this we have a midterm coming up where the president's party always loses seats.

If they overperformed, wow Democrats are f#@&ing terrible at their jobs.

The disturbing thing is that even after four years of Donald Trump, Democrats still are nowhere close to where they were in 2008 (Dems aren’t even back to their paltry 2012 levels in state legislatures).

The pattern in state legislatures and the US House since 1994 seems to be for Dems to lose big, recover somewhat, and then lose even more than what they recovered shortly after.

Looking at how low Dems are in state legislatures, it is pretty hard to see how they fall much further.  They have been totally wiped out in the South and border states as well as the rural Midwest.