Detailed 50-state presidential prediction

[NumbersNerd]

So yes, I just signed up. But I've spent the past few months building a detailed 50-state presidential election model, for the percentages, raw vote totals, and Electoral College results.

I've been lurking around this forum for quite a while, and thought this would be the best place to make it public. Here are the final numbers from the model. I'll come back later and compare how I did versus the major media prognosticators.

Alabama

Trump %: 60.10%
Biden %: 39.00%

Trump votes: 1,346,064
Biden votes: 873,486
Total votes: 2,239,707

EC: 9 Trump

Alaska

Trump %: 52.53%
Biden %: 42.17%

Trump votes: 187,606
Biden votes: 150,627
Total votes: 357,163

EC: 3 Trump

Arizona

Trump %: 48.41%
Biden %: 48.49%

Trump votes: 1,419,177
Biden votes: 1,421,649
Total votes: 2,931,710

EC: 11 Biden

Arkansas

Trump %: 60.62%
Biden %: 36.38%

Trump votes: 726,247
Biden votes: 435,797
Total votes: 1,197,983

EC: 6 Trump

California

Trump %: 32.86%
Biden %: 63.94%

Trump votes: 5,278,393
Biden votes: 10,272,406
Total votes: 16,065,876

EC: 55 Biden

Colorado

Trump %: 42.79%
Biden %: 52.11%

Trump votes: 1,353,256
Biden votes: 1,647,840
Total votes: 3,162,377

EC: 9 Biden

Connecticut

Trump %: 38.60%
Biden %: 59.90%

Trump votes: 695,097
Biden votes: 1,078,587
Total votes: 1,800,695

EC: 7 Biden

Delaware

Trump %: 38.57%
Biden %: 60.03%

Trump votes: 180,828
Biden votes: 281,385
Total votes: 468,776

EC: 3 Biden

District of Columbia

Trump %: 3.50%
Biden %: 90.60%

Trump votes: 11,184
Biden votes: 289,897
Total votes: 319,958

EC: 3 Biden

Florida

Trump %: 50.05%
Biden %: 49.05%

Trump votes: 4,871,669
Biden votes: 4,773,398
Total votes: 9,732,681

EC: 29 Trump

Georgia

Trump %: 49.96%
Biden %: 47.94%

Trump votes: 2,364,367
Biden votes: 2,268,657
Total votes: 4,732,404

EC: 16 Trump

Hawaii

Trump %: 28.41%
Biden %: 68.29%

Trump votes: 137,410
Biden votes: 330,287
Total votes: 483,658

EC: 4 Biden

Idaho

Trump %: 61.01%
Biden %: 35.59%

Trump votes: 472,101
Biden votes: 275,441
Total votes: 773,852

EC: 4 Trump

Illinois

Trump %: 38.96%
Biden %: 58.84%

Trump votes: 2,333,643
Biden votes: 3,524,494
Total votes: 5,989,914

EC: 20 Biden

Indiana

Trump %: 55.54%
Biden %: 42.26%

Trump votes: 1,648,788
Biden votes: 1,254,810
Total votes: 2,968,914

EC: 11 Trump

Iowa

Trump %: 49.87%
Biden %: 46.13%

Trump votes: 857,209
Biden votes: 792,882
Total votes: 1,718,845

EC: 6 Trump

Kansas

Trump %: 55.05%
Biden %: 40.85%

Trump votes: 737,363
Biden votes: 547,083
Total votes: 1,339,360

EC: 6 Trump

Kentucky

Trump %: 60.08%
Biden %: 37.82%

Trump votes: 1,247,186
Biden votes: 785,225
Total votes: 2,076,008

EC: 8 Trump

Louisiana

Trump %: 58.52%
Biden %: 38.28%

Trump votes: 1,026,098
Biden votes: 789,072
Total votes: 2,061,126

EC: 8 Trump

Maine

Trump %: 42.28%
Biden %: 52.72%

Trump votes: 346,086
Biden votes: 431,487
Total votes: 818,498

EC: 3 Biden* (ME-1 Safe Biden)

Maine 2nd District

Trump %: 48.70%
Biden %: 46.30%

Trump votes: 184,799
Biden votes: 175,712
Total votes: 379,485

EC: 1 Trump

Maryland

Trump %: 32.82%
Biden %: 64.08%

Trump votes: 991,588
Biden votes: 1,935,761
Total votes: 3,021,000

EC: 10 Biden

Massachusetts

Trump %: 31.04%
Biden %: 66.26%

Trump votes: 1,067,191
Biden votes: 2,277,681
Total votes: 3,437,690

EC: 11 Biden

Michigan

Trump %: 46.93%
Biden %: 49.97%

Trump votes: 2,503,594
Biden votes: 2,666,134
Total votes: 5,335,116

EC: 16 Biden

Minnesota

Trump %: 45.78%
Biden %: 50.32%

Trump votes: 1,505,601
Biden votes: 1,655,006
Total votes: 3,288,872

EC: 10 Biden

Mississippi

Trump %: 54.68%
Biden %: 41.62%

Trump votes: 695,772
Biden votes: 529,541
Total votes: 1,272,392

EC: 6 Trump

Missouri

Trump %: 54.65%
Biden %: 42.25%

Trump votes: 1,695,555
Biden votes: 1,311,106
Total votes: 3,102,850

EC: 10 Trump

Montana

Trump %: 52.09%
Biden %: 43.51%

Trump votes: 310,074
Biden votes: 259,005
Total votes: 595,271

EC: 3 Trump

Nebraska

Trump %: 58.36%
Biden %: 38.84%

Trump votes: 534,154
Biden votes: 355,449
Total votes: 915,229

EC: 4 Trump* (ME-1 & ME-3 Safe Trump)

Nebraska 2nd District

Trump %: 46.94%
Biden %: 48.06%

Trump votes: 150,176
Biden votes: 153,785
Total votes: 319,958

EC: 1 Biden

Nevada

Trump %: 45.58%
Biden %: 50.52%

Trump votes: 566,371
Biden votes: 627,795
Total votes: 1,242,628

EC: 6 Biden

New Hampshire

Trump %: 45.17%
Biden %: 52.33%

Trump votes: 349,569
Biden votes: 404,937
Total votes: 773,852

EC: 4 Biden

New Jersey

Trump %: 39.43%
Biden %: 59.27%

Trump votes: 1,631,448
Biden votes: 2,451,903
Total votes: 4,137,133

EC: 14 Biden

New Mexico

Trump %: 41.71%
Biden %: 54.69%

Trump votes: 369,318
Biden votes: 484,271
Total votes: 885,466

EC: 5 Biden

New York

Trump %: 33.96%
Biden %: 64.04%

Trump votes: 2,776,920
Biden votes: 5,237,064
Total votes: 8,177,535

EC: 29 Biden

North Carolina

Trump %: 50.51%
Biden %: 47.89%

Trump votes: 2,518,325
Biden votes: 2,387,303
Total votes: 4,985,395

EC: 15 Trump

North Dakota

Trump %: 60.26%
Biden %: 33.74%

Trump votes: 237,654
Biden votes: 133,051
Total votes: 394,367

EC: 3 Trump

Ohio

Trump %: 51.38%
Biden %: 46.92%

Trump votes: 2,985,792
Biden votes: 2,726,748
Total votes: 5,811,333

EC: 18 Trump

Oklahoma

Trump %: 64.92%
Biden %: 32.38%

Trump votes: 1,014,443
Biden votes: 505,954
Total votes: 1,562,586

EC: 7 Trump

Oregon

Trump %: 39.11%
Biden %: 56.39%

Trump votes: 899,159
Biden votes: 1,296,610
Total votes: 2,299,234

EC: 7 Biden

Pennsylvania

Trump %: 48.78%
Biden %: 49.92%

Trump votes: 3,230,142
Biden votes: 3,306,157
Total votes: 6,622,390

EC: 20 Biden

Rhode Island

Trump %: 36.33%
Biden %: 61.16%

Trump votes: 181,162
Biden votes: 304,914
Total votes: 498,539

EC: 4 Biden

South Carolina

Trump %: 53.88%
Biden %: 44.22%

Trump votes: 1,222,794
Biden votes: 1,003,557
Total votes: 2,269,471

EC: 9 Trump

South Dakota

Trump %: 60.06%
Biden %: 35.74%

Trump votes: 254,752
Biden votes: 151,565
Total votes: 424,131

EC: 3 Trump

Tennessee

Trump %: 58.81%
Biden %: 39.09%

Trump votes: 1,636,541
Biden votes: 1,087,910
Total votes: 2,782,892

EC: 11 Trump

Texas

Trump %: 49.42%
Biden %: 47.98%

Trump votes: 5,059,957
Biden votes: 4,912,499
Total votes: 10,238,661

EC: 38 Trump

Utah

Trump %: 54.84%
Biden %: 39.36%

Trump votes: 718,119
Biden votes: 515,520
Total votes: 1,309,596

EC: 6 Trump

Vermont

Trump %: 29.93%
Biden %: 65.27%

Trump votes: 104,658
Biden votes: 228,277
Total votes: 349,722

EC: 3 Biden

Virginia

Trump %: 42.99%
Biden %: 54.51%

Trump votes: 1,868,003
Biden votes: 2,368,838
Total votes: 4,345,478

EC: 13 Biden

Washington

Trump %: 36.61%
Biden %: 59.19%

Trump votes: 1,386,649
Biden votes: 2,241,691
Total votes: 3,787,412

EC: 12 Biden

West Virginia

Trump %: 63.40%
Biden %: 34.50%

Trump votes: 485,903
Biden votes: 264,414
Total votes: 766,411

EC: 5 Trump

Wisconsin

Trump %: 46.49%
Biden %: 50.71%

Trump votes: 1,539,273
Biden votes: 1,679,208
Total votes: 3,311,195

EC: 10 Biden

Wyoming

Trump %: 66.30%
Biden %: 27.10%

Trump votes: 182,531
Biden votes: 74,611
Total votes: 275,313

EC: 3 Trump

TOTAL

Trump %: 45.46%
Biden %: 51.93%

Trump votes: 67,942,805
Biden votes: 77,608,987
Total votes: 149,457,663

Trump EC: 248
Biden EC: 290

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Very close to my prediction

[Meclazine for Israel]

If you pull this prediction off with your first post, you are going into Atlas Forum immortality.

[NumbersNerd]

If Biden flips PA and manages to hold AZ, and if Trump ends up pulling it out in NC and GA, I would have gotten 50/50 states and the Electoral College 100% correct.

Not entirely sure if that'll happen yet, but it is possible.

Regardless, this prediction does seem like it will end up considerably better than places like FiveThirtyEight or The Economist.

I'll come back again later for more analysis.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Are you from the future?

[bagelman]

290-247 Biden

Seems that Biden is likely to flip GA by an incredibly tiny margin. WI voting to the left of MI/PA turned out wrong and I'm not sure where you got that from. Still, good quality prediction. Better than whatever cruft I came up with.

I left ME-2 blank because I forget if RCV applies for the Presidential election or not.

[NumbersNerd]

I'll wait until vote counts are finalized to compare results state-by-state, but so far it seems this model is on track to predict 49/50 states, as well as DC (of course) and all ME + NE congressional districts correctly. So I guess 55/56 total races, including all the separate districts. GA would be the one and only miss.

Arizona is especially interesting. I predicted a Biden +0.1 victory. He leads right now by +0.3. Very, very close.

Overall, it seems the main two issues with this model were slightly overestimating the third-party vote, and slightly underestimating Trump across the board in most states (although not as badly as nearly all other models). As always, of course, there were a few exceptions.

In the near future, I plan to launch a very early model for 2022, to be updated periodically.

[Dr. Arch]

Even the margins are similar to what the final result will end up being (barring GA and some zoomy states like MN). How did you get these numbers? lol, wow.

[Rand]

This proves the election was rigged and determined in advance.

#StopTheSteal