IN-05 (Change Research): Trump +4
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  IN-05 (Change Research): Trump +4		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: IN-05 (Change Research): Trump +4  (Read 834 times)
LimoLiberal
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« on: November 02, 2020, 10:17:23 PM »
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iWSrZDo1yUpPUkqXffKUsO4w-lGKqhxb5aQGG-fU1Dw/edit#gid=1692435149

Wasserman said Biden was up 10 points in this district.
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VAR
VARepublican
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« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2020, 10:17:59 PM »
Spartz 46
Hale 46
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republican1993
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« Reply #2 on: November 02, 2020, 10:18:16 PM »
so trump's doing "better"?
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #3 on: November 02, 2020, 10:18:41 PM »

If given a choice to believe Wasserman or Change Research, I'm going to believe Wasserman.
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philly09
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« Reply #4 on: November 02, 2020, 10:19:32 PM »
What is Change Research's track record?
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2020, 10:20:20 PM »
Pretty crazy to think we'll have a pretty good idea of how accurate this poll is in just 21 hours.
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kireev
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« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2020, 10:20:38 PM »
I don't know what Change  Research issue with blacks is but again the sample is 4% black and in reality blacks are 9% of the district's population.
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Bootes Void
iamaganster123
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« Reply #7 on: November 02, 2020, 10:20:41 PM »
Quote from: philly09 on November 02, 2020, 10:19:32 PM
What is Change Research's track record?
Not very good although Trump win here by nearly 13% so a shift like this throughout all suburban areas is not good news for trump
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VAR
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #8 on: November 02, 2020, 10:21:40 PM »
Quote from: BudgieForce on November 02, 2020, 10:18:41 PM

If given a choice to believe Wasserman or Change Research, I'm going to believe Wasserman.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #9 on: November 02, 2020, 10:22:23 PM »
Quote from: philly09 on November 02, 2020, 10:19:32 PM
What is Change Research's track record?

There were pretty bad in the democratic primary.

The most notable example was probably the South Carolina Primary.

https://changeresearch.com/post/post-and-courier-change-research-south-carolina-primary/
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Splash
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« Reply #10 on: November 02, 2020, 10:49:25 PM »
Quote from: philly09 on November 02, 2020, 10:19:32 PM
What is Change Research's track record?

Governor Abdul El-Sayed of Michigan says they're great!
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lfromnj
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« Reply #11 on: November 02, 2020, 11:01:56 PM »
Quote from: BudgieForce on November 02, 2020, 10:18:41 PM

If given a choice to believe Wasserman or Change Research, I'm going to believe Wasserman.
Thats Wasserman quoting GOP internals, IIRC in 2018 he saw one that had Sean Duffy losing but turns out it was junk.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #12 on: November 02, 2020, 11:04:18 PM »
Quote from: #proudtikitorchmarcher on November 02, 2020, 11:01:56 PM
Quote from: BudgieForce on November 02, 2020, 10:18:41 PM

If given a choice to believe Wasserman or Change Research, I'm going to believe Wasserman.
Thats Wasserman quoting GOP internals, IIRC in 2018 he saw one that had Sean Duffy losing but turns out it was junk.

I'm not suggesting Wasserman is infallible. But Change Research had some huge misses in the Dem primary and I don't have much faith in their accuracy.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #13 on: November 02, 2020, 11:06:43 PM »
Quote from: BudgieForce on November 02, 2020, 11:04:18 PM
Quote from: #proudtikitorchmarcher on November 02, 2020, 11:01:56 PM
Quote from: BudgieForce on November 02, 2020, 10:18:41 PM

If given a choice to believe Wasserman or Change Research, I'm going to believe Wasserman.
Thats Wasserman quoting GOP internals, IIRC in 2018 he saw one that had Sean Duffy losing but turns out it was junk.

I'm not suggesting Wasserman is infallible. But Change Research had some huge misses in the Dem primary and I don't have much faith in their accuracy.
Oh change is garbage I am just saying its Wasserman extra info he "leaks"
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
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« Reply #14 on: November 02, 2020, 11:16:00 PM »
Quote from: BudgieForce on November 02, 2020, 10:18:41 PM

If given a choice to believe Wasserman or Change Research, I'm going to believe Wasserman.

Yeah, I will go with Wasserman on this also. If there were some late breaking change where Biden was suddenly collapsing in all these suburban districts that Change Research is apparently polling all of a sudden, I am pretty sure they would have been picked up in other private/internal polls and Wasserman would have piped up about them by now...

But instead, he says:



Which suggests Dems are probably doing pretty well in the suburbs...
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #15 on: November 03, 2020, 07:39:15 AM »
Oct 29-Nov 1
596 likely voters
MoE: 4.1%

Trump 49
Biden 45
Jorgensen 2
Don't recall 2
Did not vote 0
Would not vote 0
Not sure 1
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JacksonHitchcock
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« Reply #16 on: November 03, 2020, 07:50:32 AM »
Change Research gonna become the new Selzer if this sh**t turns out right
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