My 2020 Election Projection

[TRKL1917]

This is my final prediction.

2020 Presidential Results
Donald Trump: 290 EVs (48% of popular vote)
Joe Biden: 248 EVs (49% of popular vote)

The reason for my bold and shocking prediction is because in a highly polarized election in which the incumbents Party has a decisive electoral college edge (Trump has to lose the popular vote by 3 points to lose the electoral college) the incumbent almost always wins. In addition to this Trump has advantages most other incumbents lack, including but not limited to , a “shy Trump voter” effect in which his supporters consistently lie to pollsters, thus making it impossible to trust polls with him losing, which the Democrats should have learned from their 2016 defeat. The massive civil unrest in the aftermath of George Floyd’s murder that has galvanized racist Rural and Suburban Whites to vote heavily for Trump, while strengthening the “Shy Trump voter effect” due to their fears of being unveiled as despicable racists. The fact that the Democratic nominee, Joe Biden, is uninspiring compared to his primary rival Bernie Sanders, and was a key sponsor of Republican policies such as the crime bill, NAFTA, Welfare reform, and the Iraq War, which will cause low turnout from Non-whites, Youth, and Union Workers. And lastly, the fact that Democrats have fallen for the trap of promoting Coronavirus hysteria, such as unnecessary Lockdowns and Masks for a virus that only has a IFR of .23% according to this article from the WHO https://www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/BLT.20.265892.pdf (Trump supports this as well, as seen by his “Operation Warp speed” push for a rushed Vaccine, but the Democrats complicity has prevented many from realizing this) which cause more harm then good (they cause millions of job losses and excess deaths of despair, thus proving the benefits of a Swedish approach), which will cause a massive backlash from those who have suffered from this reckless policy. Despite Joe Biden’s many flaws (The worst of which are his support for past Republican policies and his current support for Coronavirus hysteria), I still voted for him due to his pledge to renter the Iran nuclear deal and halt the destruction of the Safety net. In conclusion, tomorrow nights results will be a dramatic shock for most on this website and millions of Democrats across the country.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No

[TRKL1917]

Does anybody else have the intellectual fortitude to analyze my projection?

[Admiral Stockdale]

The fact that the Democratic nominee, Joe Biden, is uninspiring compared to his primary rival Bernie Sanders, and was a key sponsor of Republican policies such as the crime bill, NAFTA, Welfare reform, and the Iraq War, which will cause low turnout from Non-whites, Youth, and Union Workers.

I just don't see the low turnout playing out as has been evidenced from 100 million voting prior to election day.  I would have maybe agreed with this back in Jan/Feb, but I think that "I am going to stay home as opposed to voting for a candidate I don't like" attitude is much less strong this time around.  I will say that young, male, people of color may fall into the non-voter category (and will be somewhat surprisingly supporting Trump). 

While I agree that Biden isn't an inspiring candidate, he's not a disliked candidate (like Hillary was).

Also... the "shy Trump voter" thing plays both ways in strong Trump areas (e.g., The Villages in Florida).

Polling would need to have a larger, different error (or multiple errors) than in 2016 (maybe under weighting GOP turnout and over counting GOP defections).

[TRKL1917]

Here’s my projection of the Statewide results in Battleground states:
             Texas: 54-44 Trump
          Georgia: 53-46 Trump
North Carolina: 52-46 Trump
               Ohio: 51-46 Trump
               Iowa: 51-47 Trump
           Arizona: 51-47 Trump
            Florida: 50-47 Trump
   Pennsylvania: 49-48 Trump
       Wisconsin: 49-49 Trump
         Michigan: 49-48 Biden
New Hampshire: 50-48 Biden
           Nevada: 50-48 Biden
       Minnesota: 50-47 Biden
             Maine: 50-47 Biden
          Virginia: 51-47 Biden
        Colorado: 51-46 Biden
    New Mexico: 53-45 Biden

[It’s so Joever]

Here’s my projection of the Statewide results in Battleground states:
       Texas: 54-44 Trump
       Georgia: 53-46 Trump
North Carolina: 52-46 Trump
            Ohio: 51-46 Trump
          Iowa: 51-47 Trump
        Arizona: 51-47 Trump
         Florida: 50-47 Trump
Pennsylvania: 49-48 Trump
    Wisconsin: 49-49 Trump
       Michigan: 49-48 Biden
New Hampshire: 50-48 Biden
         Nevada: 50-48 Biden
     Minnesota: 50-47 Biden
           Maine: 50-47 Biden
         Virginia: 51-47 Biden
       Colorado: 51-46 Biden
   New Mexico: 53-45 Biden

Dude...I’m a Doomercrat, but how the f**k do you expect TX and AZ to swing R this cycle?
They have a ton of the suburban voters who actually detest Trump. It’s in states with a decent number of rurals and inner city minorities that Trump has a shot at gaining.

[here2view]

lol

[Chips]

This prediction in general wasn't terrible. You missed the mark big on Georgia, Virginia and Colorado and pretty big on Arizona, North Carolina and Texas but otherwise this wasn't a terrible prediction.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We all thought Biden was better at getting D's across the finish line and he did about the same as Warren or Bernie would because Trump is at the same Approvals as Biden is now in Rassy polls 48/50% not at 43%

Biden won the Rust belt like every D should have like Hillary

[Schiff for Senate]

         Georgia: 53-46 Trump

This prediction has come back to haunt you.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

         Georgia: 53-46 Trump

This prediction has come back to haunt you.

Haunts SirWoodbury more.