ME-Change Research: Gideon +4 (Savage at 7%)
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September 20, 2021, 06:15:35 AM

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  ME-Change Research: Gideon +4 (Savage at 7%)
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Author Topic: ME-Change Research: Gideon +4 (Savage at 7%)  (Read 867 times)
Lief 🐋
Lief
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« on: November 03, 2020, 12:46:46 AM »

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eBWQtr-cx1ECGu-dsFcF_VdhnFfyRPd3qz3zcTmhdFY/edit#gid=1166077921

Gideon 46
Collins 42
Savage 7
Linn 2
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Senator WD
Western Democrat
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E: -5.29, S: 2.26

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« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2020, 12:48:06 AM »

Should be +4
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Lief 🐋
Lief
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Dominica


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« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2020, 12:50:14 AM »

Under the "Ranked-Choice Voting Simulation," Gideo is winning 54-46.
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2020, 02:19:13 AM »

I swear, whenever I come to the conclusion that Collins is more likely to win than Tillis, a poll comes out the next day showing the exact opposite. Itís been this way for months now.

Anyway, Collins will have to pray for record R turnout in rural/small-town ME and a big win in the Bangor area, a small polling error as the state's R trend is stronger than expected/undecideds breaking R (this has Biden winning ME-02 by 1, I could see Trump winning by 5 here, for instance) and/or polls underestimating the residual goodwill/crossover appeal she still has in the state, but itís looking really tough. I wouldnít be that surprised if she eked out a narrow win (polls have underestimated her before, including in 2008), but I also wouldnít be surprised if she only barely outperformed Trump. Still some uncertainty in this race even if itís an uphill battle for Collins.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #4 on: November 03, 2020, 07:48:37 AM »

Oct 29-Nov 2

Statewide
1024 likely voters
MoE: 3.5%

First round
Gideon 46
Collins 42
Savage 7
Linn 2
Don't recall 1
Would not vote 1
Did not vote 0
Not sure 1

After RCV (third round)
Gideon 54
Collins 46

ME-02
475 likely voters
MoE: 4.6%

Golden 53
Crafts 44
Would not vote 1
Don't recall 0
Did not vote 0
Not sure 2
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VARep
VARepublican
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« Reply #5 on: November 19, 2020, 10:09:26 AM »

I swear, whenever I come to the conclusion that Collins is more likely to win than Tillis, a poll comes out the next day showing the exact opposite. Itís been this way for months now.

Both of them won.  Smiley
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Mr. Kanye West
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« Reply #6 on: November 19, 2020, 12:04:51 PM »

Troll poll that showed Gideon leading, she was behind the whole time
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