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February 25, 2021, 02:52:58 AM
Talk Elections
Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
2020 U.S. Presidential Election
2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
(Moderators:
Likely Voter
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ON Progressive
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Maine (Change Research): Biden winning
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Topic: Maine (Change Research): Biden winning (Read 699 times)
LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
Posts: 3,377
Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
Maine (Change Research): Biden winning
«
on:
November 03, 2020, 12:26:56 AM »
This is a confusing PDF, figure the margin out yourself
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eBWQtr-cx1ECGu-dsFcF_VdhnFfyRPd3qz3zcTmhdFY/edit?usp=sharing
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RoboWop
AMB1996
Sr. Member
Posts: 3,439
Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: 5.74
Re: Maine (Change Research): Biden winning
«
Reply #1 on:
November 03, 2020, 12:28:25 AM »
52-40? It's right there.
ME-02 is 47-46. Jorgenson has 4% in both.
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Lief 🐋
Lief
Atlas Legend
Posts: 42,095
ME: Change Research: Biden +12
«
Reply #2 on:
November 03, 2020, 12:35:00 AM »
New Poll:
Maine President by Change Research on 2020-11-02
Summary: D: 52%, R: 40%, U: 2%
Poll Source URL:
Full Poll Details
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Lief 🐋
Lief
Atlas Legend
Posts: 42,095
ME: Change Research: Gideon +4
«
Reply #3 on:
November 03, 2020, 12:45:00 AM »
New Poll:
Maine Senator by Change Research on 2020-11-02
Summary: D: 46%, R: 42%, U: 2%
Poll Source URL:
Full Poll Details
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Western Democrat
YaBB God
Posts: 3,998
Re: Maine (Change Research): Biden winning
«
Reply #4 on:
November 03, 2020, 12:45:23 AM »
Also Gideon+4, and Gideon+8 after RCV.
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emailking
YaBB God
Posts: 4,703
Re: Maine (Change Research): Biden winning
«
Reply #5 on:
November 03, 2020, 04:13:26 AM »
I guess the returns we'll see will be 1st choices only? Applying IRV makes sense once you have all the votes.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 6,805
Re: Maine (Change Research): Biden winning
«
Reply #6 on:
November 03, 2020, 07:45:53 AM »
Oct 29-Nov 2
Statewide
1024 likely voters
MoE: 3.5%
Biden 52
Trump 40
Jorgensen 4
Hawkins 2
Did not vote 1
Don't recall 0
Would not vote 0
Not sure 1
ME-02
475 likely voters
MoE: 4.6%
First Round
Biden 47
Trump 46
Jorgensen 4
Hawkins 1
Don't recall 0
Did not vote 0
Would not vote 0
Not sure 1
After RCV (3rd round)
Biden 50
Trump 50
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Stuart98
Jr. Member
Posts: 917
Political Matrix
E: -6.39, S: -6.70
Re: Maine (Change Research): Biden winning
«
Reply #7 on:
November 03, 2020, 07:48:57 AM »
Quote from: emailking on November 03, 2020, 04:13:26 AM
I guess the returns we'll see will be 1st choices only? Applying IRV makes sense once you have all the votes.
Yes, it's impractical to post full IRV preferences because of how many permutations there are.
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the506
Jr. Member
Posts: 365
Re: Maine (Change Research): Biden winning
«
Reply #8 on:
November 03, 2020, 10:28:22 AM »
Quote from: emailking on November 03, 2020, 04:13:26 AM
I guess the returns we'll see will be 1st choices only? Applying IRV makes sense once you have all the votes.
Yes. In ME-2 in 2018 they held a press conference at the SOS office about a week later where they applied the second/third choices.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 6,805
Re: Maine (Change Research): Biden winning
«
Reply #9 on:
November 03, 2020, 10:46:17 AM »
ME-01
(from their twitter)
549 likely voters
Biden 56
Trump 35
Jorgensen 4
Hawkins 3
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