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December 05, 2020, 12:36:54 AM
News: 2020 Election day live thread: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=409870.0

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, TJ in Oregon, YE, ON Progressive)
  Maine (Change Research): Biden winning
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Author Topic: Maine (Change Research): Biden winning  (Read 563 times)
LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,342


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E: -3.71, S: -4.00

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« on: November 03, 2020, 12:26:56 AM »

This is a confusing PDF, figure the margin out yourself

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eBWQtr-cx1ECGu-dsFcF_VdhnFfyRPd3qz3zcTmhdFY/edit?usp=sharing
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RoboWop
AMB1996
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United States


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E: 2.06, S: 5.74

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« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2020, 12:28:25 AM »

52-40? It's right there.

ME-02 is 47-46. Jorgenson has 4% in both.
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Lief 🐋
Lief
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Dominica


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« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2020, 12:35:00 AM »

New Poll: Maine President by  Change Research on 2020-11-02

Summary: D: 52%, R: 40%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Lief 🐋
Lief
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Dominica


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« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2020, 12:45:00 AM »

New Poll: Maine Senator by  Change Research on 2020-11-02

Summary: D: 46%, R: 42%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Perdue-Warnock voter 4 Candidate Quality
Western Democrat
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« Reply #4 on: November 03, 2020, 12:45:23 AM »

Also Gideon+4, and Gideon+8 after RCV.
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emailking
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« Reply #5 on: November 03, 2020, 04:13:26 AM »

I guess the returns we'll see will be 1st choices only? Applying IRV makes sense once you have all the votes.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #6 on: November 03, 2020, 07:45:53 AM »

Oct 29-Nov 2

Statewide
1024 likely voters
MoE: 3.5%

Biden 52
Trump 40
Jorgensen 4
Hawkins 2
Did not vote 1
Don't recall 0
Would not vote 0
Not sure 1

ME-02
475 likely voters
MoE: 4.6%

First Round
Biden 47
Trump 46
Jorgensen 4
Hawkins 1
Don't recall 0
Did not vote 0
Would not vote 0
Not sure 1

After RCV (3rd round)
Biden 50
Trump 50
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Stuart98
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United States


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« Reply #7 on: November 03, 2020, 07:48:57 AM »

I guess the returns we'll see will be 1st choices only? Applying IRV makes sense once you have all the votes.
Yes, it's impractical to post full IRV preferences because of how many permutations there are.
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the506
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Canada


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« Reply #8 on: November 03, 2020, 10:28:22 AM »

I guess the returns we'll see will be 1st choices only? Applying IRV makes sense once you have all the votes.

Yes. In ME-2 in 2018 they held a press conference at the SOS office about a week later where they applied the second/third choices.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Concerned Citizen
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« Reply #9 on: November 03, 2020, 10:46:17 AM »

ME-01 (from their twitter)
549 likely voters

Biden 56
Trump 35
Jorgensen 4
Hawkins 3
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