2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread (user search)
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  2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread  (Read 599289 times)
YE
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Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52

« on: November 02, 2020, 09:19:10 PM »
« edited: November 03, 2020, 05:22:28 PM by YE »

Poll closing times are listed here:

https://ballotpedia.org/State_Poll_Opening_and_Closing_Times_(2020)
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G16/closing.phtml?format=gc

First polls close in parts of IN and KY at 6pm Eastern, and we may start getting some results from those states shortly thereafter, but the networks won't call either state or post the topline exit poll #s until 7pm Eastern, when the rest of the polls close in those two states.

In addition to discussing election night results, this thread will also be used for discussing the exit polls, including exit poll leaks.  Because of the post-2004 exit polling reforms, the media themselves don't have access to any exit poll #s until 5pm Eastern.  Any supposed exit poll leaks you read before 5pm are certainly fake.  After 5pm, stuff will leak.  And we'll start getting AP stories about what the exit polls say about who voted.

For when all results come in:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-results-timing/

Regarding how PA will go down:


NYT results page
AP results page
538 live blog
YouTube live stream playlist

Suggested threads when starting to panic:
Election Day Tips
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YE
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*****
Posts: 15,648


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52

« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2020, 10:52:18 AM »

All these stressful takes are totally forgetting that Biden is preforming extremely well with independents in the polling

LOL this is Florida.

It shouldn’t even have been a tossup. NC I can understand but anyone who thinks Biden is touching FLA or GA really needs... a diffrent hobby

Oh my god, I hope you cry when Biden wins GA and FL

In that fantasy land I’d cry tears of joy but .. if you think that’s happening you genuinely need a new hobby. I can see TX or NC happening if Biden pulls out some miracle. But GA and FLA are GONE.

Dude a single vote hasn't been counted yet in either state.
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YE
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*****
Posts: 15,648


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52

« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2020, 01:09:54 PM »

So far the numbers seem to support Biden's narrow early vote leads getting overwhelmed by election day turnout.

No?

So no elaboration? Simply denial? That doesn't seem like a confident answer as much as a self-convincing one.

I mean you aren’t wrong but what you are saying is expected.
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YE
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Posts: 15,648


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52

« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2020, 01:43:01 PM »

View of Florida at start of day:

Dem  3,548,112 or 66.6% turnout   +115,416
Rep   3,432,696 or 66.4% turrout    

At 11am (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)

Dem 3,705,868  or 69.9%       -57,563
Rep   3,763,431  or 72.8%

Strong Rep push this morn


Here is the noon report:  (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)

Dem 3,750,868 or 70.7%       -100,880
Rep  3,851,748 or 74.5%%




Florida Report for 1:30


Dem 3,793,231 or 71.5%       -137,145
Rep  3,930,376 or 76.0%

These are the numbers I was asking how this is good for Biden, with Dems having a 140k vote deficit?

Consensus seems to be if R lead is less than 300-400K at the end of the day, it’s good for Biden pending NPA’s.
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YE
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*****
Posts: 15,648


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52

« Reply #4 on: November 03, 2020, 01:55:40 PM »

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YE
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*****
Posts: 15,648


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52

« Reply #5 on: November 03, 2020, 02:44:42 PM »

There's like 10 conflicting reads of the data here but it sounds less DOOMERY than an hour ago.  Must mean the numbers are looking better for Biden.

For me I just need some idea of what this or that statistic that's being dropped means as this is the first time I've watched the election day vote and it gets aggravating when I'm told to just read 25 pages as if I have the time to do that rather than a quick explanation

Florida R turnout is slowing down relative to D’s as the day progresses.
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YE
Moderator
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*****
Posts: 15,648


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52

« Reply #6 on: November 03, 2020, 02:49:09 PM »

There's like 10 conflicting reads of the data here but it sounds less DOOMERY than an hour ago.  Must mean the numbers are looking better for Biden.

For me I just need some idea of what this or that statistic that's being dropped means as this is the first time I've watched the election day vote and it gets aggravating when I'm told to just read 25 pages as if I have the time to do that rather than a quick explanation

Florida R turnout is slowing down relative to D’s as the day progresses.

I mean, isn't this somewhat expected?  Turnout isn't steady across the day, and the GOP was always going to make up the most in the "after work" 4-6pm voters.

It is and I expected this to happen but the question was why the forum wasn’t dooming as much as an hour ago so I answered.
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YE
Moderator
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*****
Posts: 15,648


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52

« Reply #7 on: November 03, 2020, 02:55:57 PM »

looks like those +4/5 Florida Biden polls are gonna be money

Way too soon to make that declaration.
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YE
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Posts: 15,648


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52

« Reply #8 on: November 03, 2020, 03:15:33 PM »

After 27 pages or so, what’s the gist of how Election Day voting is looking for Biden?  Any reason for me to doom, or is it looking good for us?

TX - GOP has expressed worry, early #s look better than Beto's in '18
PA - GOP has expressed worry
Otherwise - GOP turnout not reaching the point where it needs to be to make a Trump win even probable.

Exit polls may indicate a nail in the coffin.


The final results will. Everything before, at least for the most part, only means so much
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YE
Moderator
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*****
Posts: 15,648


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52

« Reply #9 on: November 03, 2020, 03:26:52 PM »

You guys are reading way too much into ancendotal evidence. Dem partisans predicting wins don’t mean much.
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YE
Moderator
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*****
Posts: 15,648


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52

« Reply #10 on: November 25, 2020, 12:41:31 PM »

This should have been split up at 160 but if the site is still running with it, I’ll leave it up.

With that said, all good (or depending on your point of view, bad) things come to an end. I’ll lock somewhat soon.
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YE
Moderator
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,648


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52

« Reply #11 on: November 25, 2020, 01:19:04 PM »

This should have been split up at 160 but if the site is still running with it, I’ll leave it up.

With that said, all good (or depending on your point of view, bad) things come to an end. I’ll lock somewhat soon.

Can we at least keep it open for New York?

Yes.
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