2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread (user search)
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  2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread  (Read 599279 times)
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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« on: November 02, 2020, 10:31:02 PM »

Any result maps online yet (NYT, AP, CNN, etc.)? Only seeing Bloomberg.

The AP had a great interactive map for PRES/SEN/H/GOV in 2016, do they have another one up this year?
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2020, 10:46:32 PM »

Any result maps online yet (NYT, AP, CNN, etc.)? Only seeing Bloomberg.

The AP had a great interactive map for PRES/SEN/H/GOV in 2016, do they have another one up this year?

Politico and ABC have theirs up.

Thanks a lot!

Links --

https://abcnews.go.com/Elections/2020-us-presidential-election-results-live-map
https://www.politico.com/2020-election/results/senate/
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-us-election-results
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2020, 01:01:14 PM »

Not sure if this is the right place to post this, but for those of you interested in MT politics/elections (I also posted this in the MT megathread on the gubernatorial/statewide elections board):

This is my PVI ‘county spreadsheet’, denoting each county's lean relative to the entire state, NOT the margins in said race:

County -- 2016 GOV -- 2017 HOUSE -- 2018 HOUSE -- 2018 SENATE

Beaverhead – R+22 -- R+25 – R+25 -- R+24
Big Horn – D+24 -- D+13 – D+30 -- D+28
Blaine – D+16 -- D+13 – D+24 -- D+29
Broadwater – R+21 -- R+32 – R+37 -- R+35
Carbon – R+10 -- R+7 – R+12 -- R+12
Carter – R+70 -- R+68 – R+67 -- R+67
Cascade – D+6 -- R+1 – D+1 -- D+2
Chouteau – R+8 -- R+19 – R+12 -- R+5
Custer – R+22 -- R+23 – R+25 -- R+20
Daniels – R+41 -- R+45 – R+43 -- R+41
Dawson – R+51 -- R+34 – D+37 -- R+40
Deer Lodge – D+39 -- D+39 –D+36 -- D+36
Fallon – R+51 -- R+60 – R+58 -- R+56
Fergus – R+29 -- R+34 – R+33 - R+32
Flathead – R+19 -- R+13 – R+17 -- R+18
Gallatin – D+11 -- D+19 – D+19 -- D+18

Garfield – R+71 -- R+79 – R+76 -- R+75
Glacier – D+45 -- D+39 – D+50 -- D+49
Golden Valley – R+33 -- R+43 – R+43 -- R+42
Granite – R+14 -- R+21 – R+24 -- R+23
Hill – D+14 -- D+6 – D+12 -- D+17
Jefferson – R+11 -- R+13 – R+16 -- R+14
Judith Basin – R+23 -- R+34 – R+41 -- R+34
Lake – R+2 -- R+2 – D+0 -- R+0
Lewis and Clark – D+19 -- D+15 – D+13 -- D+15
Liberty – R+24 --R+28 – R+32 -- R+26
Lincoln – R+30 -- R+29 – R+36 -- R+38
Madison – R+20 -- R+22 – R+25 -- R+24
McCone – R+55 -- R+52 – R+56 -- R+57
Meagher – R+28 -- R+36 – R+38 -- R+35
Mineral –  R+13 -- R+19 – R+24 --  R+23
Missoula – D+30 -- D+37 – D+35 -- D+41
Musselshell – R+39 -- R+50 – R+50 -- R+52
Park – D+6 -- D+10 – D+5 -- D+4
Petroleum – R+56 -- R+59 – R+63 -- R+64
Phillips – R+58 -- R+53 – R+50 -- R+44
Pondera – R+8 -- R+15 – R+18 -- R+12
Powder River – R+53 -- R+56 – R+58 -- R+60
Powell – R+23 -- R+28 – R+30 -- R+26
Prairie – R+51 -- R+50 – R+47 -- R+45
Ravalli – R+18 -- R+19 – R+22 -- R+23
Richland – R+55 -- R+46 – R+48 -- R+47
Roosevelt – D+10 -- D+11 – D+16 -- D+16
Rosebud – R+21 -- R+16 – R+12 -- R+11
Sanders – R+24 -- R+29 – R+32 -- R+33
Sheridan – R+18 -- R+11 – R+19 -- R+20
Silver Bow – D+40 -- D+40 – D+40 -- D+42
Stillwater – R+30 -- R+37 – R+37 -- R+39
Sweet Grass – R+36 -- R+38 – R+38 -- R+38
Teton – R+14 -- R+19 – R+22 -- R+19
Toole – R+24 -- R+29 – R+36 -- R+34
Treasure – R+30 -- R+35 – R+47 -- R+40
Valley – R+26 – R+29 – R+26 -- R+19
Wheatland – R+19 -- R+31 – R+34 -- R+33
Wibaux – R+48 -- R+55 – R+49 -- R+50
Yellowstone – R+5 -- R+13 – R+7 -- R+7

The 2018 results (especially for Senate) generally work as a good starting point for comparisons to the Bullock vs. Daines race in particular, but more on that later/when the results trickle in.

*bold = relatively ‘static’ and/or ‘reliable’ PVI with few fluctuations/deviations -> good bellwether
*bold and green = battleground and/or populous counties which will quickly tell us where the race is headed. The candidates cannot afford to underperform said county's PVI in their margin of victory here (for Daines, this is especially true of Ravalli, Cascade, and Yellowstone; for Bullock, of Lewis and Clark).

The two counties which will be closest to the statewide result: Lake and Cascade
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2020, 04:33:31 PM »

I just ran downstairs and screamed to my dad, ARE YOU EXCITED TO BE RETURNING ADDISON MITCHELL MCCONNELL Jr. TO THE SENATE IN JUST A LITTLE OVER 2 HOURS?!

I’m more excited about Cornyn's NUT map, Senator Peters' complete and utter motorcycle wipeout, Perdue's Mack Mattingly map, and Daines' bipartisan bill county bumps.

Don’t sleep on Al Gross tho
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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Posts: 15,284
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« Reply #4 on: November 03, 2020, 07:49:23 PM »


Yep, Titanium Tilt R Florida confirmed

Once again, FL screwed up my prediction map (I should have listened to my gut)
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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Posts: 15,284
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« Reply #5 on: November 03, 2020, 10:50:27 PM »

wtf is this election
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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*****
Posts: 15,284
United States


« Reply #6 on: November 03, 2020, 11:20:06 PM »


It is proof that if Atlas parrots memes enough, they become real. Cornyn is unbeatable and Florida is titanium tilt R.

LOL

Yeah we even got a NUT map from Cornyn

Where’s the MI motorcycle though?
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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Posts: 15,284
United States


« Reply #7 on: November 03, 2020, 11:22:37 PM »

Wow - Iowa looking pretty good for Biden. Who’d have thought he’d win it before FL?

Hes not winning Iowa man.

Why not? Solid lead so far, I think no particular counting bias (could be wrong on that though), and Biden leaving in several rural Obama-Trump counties.

Biden and Greenfield are toast in IA, lol.
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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Posts: 15,284
United States


« Reply #8 on: November 03, 2020, 11:40:18 PM »

Any insight into the Montana Senate race? It looks like Bullock is doing as well as 2018 Tester to me.

No, he’s doing significantly worse than Tester and underperforming his benchmarks in every county that has reported so far. Still too early to call, but Daines is favored.
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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« Reply #9 on: November 03, 2020, 11:52:22 PM »


She’s outperforming Trump by 16 points but RCV makes it a little less certain. She certainly appears to be favored, though.
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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Posts: 15,284
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« Reply #10 on: November 04, 2020, 11:45:15 PM »

So to sum this up:

- Biden wins NV (by an underwhelming margin, to the right of the nation)
- Biden wins AZ
- Biden wins GA very narrowly
- Trump probably wins NC very narrowly
- PA will go down to the wire, with Biden very slightly favored?
- Trump will win AK

Trump is pretty much toast.

Senate:

- Sullivan will win AK
- Tillis will win by a point or a little less in NC, outperforming Trump
- Collins has won in ME
- McSally is toast in AZ

Meaning the Senate will be 50R/48D when all is said and done, with the GA runoffs deciding Senate control.

Is this accurate? Curious about PA in particular.
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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Posts: 15,284
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« Reply #11 on: November 04, 2020, 11:48:31 PM »

Yes, other than Stats Twitter is much more confident than you than Biden wins PA.

I’m not at all ‘confident’ about PA, but it does look like it will be fairly close? So Biden +1-1.5 in the end? Could be wrong.
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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« Reply #12 on: November 06, 2020, 04:13:11 AM »

How likely is it that Trump and Tillis still lose NC? I’d say Trump is a 70% favorite to hold NC and Tillis maybe 95%, does this seem accurate?
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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Posts: 15,284
United States


« Reply #13 on: November 06, 2020, 04:46:52 AM »

Correct me if I’m wrong, but I think Trump would have won the state by a narrow margin (15k votes or so) if he had done as well as Kemp in rural/small-town GA (especially in the North and Southeast), right? There were clearly some Kemp/Biden voters.
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