2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I love the pettiness lol.

[Former Crackhead Mike Lindell]

AP showing Wisconsin with 93% reporting, Trump leading by 110,000 votes. Insurmountable.

Cringe lmao

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Trump has won.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

None of this makes any god-**** sense, but the vote totals are not lying.

I am a doomer now.

[South Dakota Democrat]

How come everyone is excited about Wisconsin?

Isn’t there way more outstanding GOP vote?

[South Dakota Democrat]

Even if Biden wins WI and MI, it seems PA and NV are lost causes.

There are also not enough votes left for him in GA or NC, right ?

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

None of this makes any god-**** sense, but the vote totals are not lying.

I am a doomer now.

I'm very happy to have been wrong in that instance. At the moment I posted that, I really didn't think there was enough vote for things to pull through in Pennsylvania, and if Biden didn't win here then I didn't see how we could take Wisconsin either.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

None of this makes any god-**** sense, but the vote totals are not lying.

I am a doomer now.

I'm very happy to have been wrong in that instance. At the moment I posted that, I really didn't think there was enough vote for things to pull through in Pennsylvania, and if Biden didn't win here then I didn't see how we could take Wisconsin either.

Media and election gurus: *warns of "blue shift" for weeks prior to election, states not to take early returns as the final numbers, etc.*
People who follow them: "OK."

People who follow them in the immediate days after Election Day: "OH GOD NO HOW IS TRUMP WINNING ARGH!!!"

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1323855032207450113

How exactly did the needle turn so quickly? IIRC it was favoring Trump before.

[Bootes Void]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1323855032207450113

How exactly did the needle turn so quickly? IIRC it was favoring Trump before.

probably a bit of atlanta dropped in

[South Dakota Democrat]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1323855032207450113

How exactly did the needle turn so quickly? IIRC it was favoring Trump before.

If I recall, it's that the results among Florida, North Carolina, and Georgia were too correlated in their model.  Thus, when Biden did poorly in Florida, that affected the needle in Georgia as well.  Georgia really was fairly de-coupled from the national environment, to an extent, which is also mentioned in the book Lucky, as the Biden campaign saw NC, FL, MI, PA, and WI as very correlated, but AZ and GA as less so. 

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1323855032207450113

How exactly did the needle turn so quickly? IIRC it was favoring Trump before.

If I recall, it's that the results among Florida, North Carolina, and Georgia were too correlated in their model.  Thus, when Biden did poorly in Florida, that affected the needle in Georgia as well.  Georgia really was fairly de-coupled from the national environment, to an extent, which is also mentioned in the book Lucky, as the Biden campaign saw NC, FL, MI, PA, and WI as very correlated, but AZ and GA as less so. 

Precisely: it was interstate correlation factoring into the needle's algorithm. By the time at which FL was already all-but-done & NC's mail-ins were sufficiently more-than-decent for Trump/more-than-sh*tty for Biden, there was still basically no data available from GA, & given how FL & NC were looking for Trump, the needle's algorithm - in the absence of legitimate, hard data from GA - thought it reasonable that Trump's performance in GA would correlate with his performances in the other 2. As it turned out once the hard data from GA actually started pouring in, though, not so much.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Can anyone TLDR on how much is out in GA and when its expected?

Focus on the blue wall

Georgia is a pipe dream

[South Dakota Democrat]

Where is Lurker? Is he... safe? Is he... all right?

Shut up, you hack. The Senate is gone and you're still trying to run victory laps. Celebrate the tiny, narrow victory of Mr. Electable all you want, but this was not a successful night by any stretch of the imagination for the Democratic Party.

[Crane]

Where is Lurker? Is he... safe? Is he... all right?

Shut up, you hack. The Senate is gone and you're still trying to run victory laps. Celebrate the tiny, narrow victory of Mr. Electable all you want, but this was not a successful night by any stretch of the imagination for the Democratic Party.

And you're digging this up today why?

https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1401547638202380290

[South Dakota Democrat]

Where is Lurker? Is he... safe? Is he... all right?

Shut up, you hack. The Senate is gone and you're still trying to run victory laps. Celebrate the tiny, narrow victory of Mr. Electable all you want, but this was not a successful night by any stretch of the imagination for the Democratic Party.

And you're digging this up today why?

https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1401547638202380290

Been going through the thread the past few days, digging up particularly obstinate posts that were wrong. A lot of people incorrectly predicted the Senate, but you earned a quote with the "shut up,  you hack" line.

[Crane]

Where is Lurker? Is he... safe? Is he... all right?

Shut up, you hack. The Senate is gone and you're still trying to run victory laps. Celebrate the tiny, narrow victory of Mr. Electable all you want, but this was not a successful night by any stretch of the imagination for the Democratic Party.

And you're digging this up today why?

https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1401547638202380290

Been going through the thread the past few days, digging up particularly obstinate posts that were wrong. A lot of people incorrectly predicted the Senate, but you earned a quote with the "shut up,  you hack" line.

There's a "poorly aged content" thread for that. Not continuously empty quoting old posts in an 800 page thread during a time where politically we don't exactly have much to gloat about.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Where is Lurker? Is he... safe? Is he... all right?

Shut up, you hack. The Senate is gone and you're still trying to run victory laps. Celebrate the tiny, narrow victory of Mr. Electable all you want, but this was not a successful night by any stretch of the imagination for the Democratic Party.

And you're digging this up today why?

https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1401547638202380290

Been going through the thread the past few days, digging up particularly obstinate posts that were wrong. A lot of people incorrectly predicted the Senate, but you earned a quote with the "shut up,  you hack" line.

There's a "poorly aged content" thread for that. Not continuously empty quoting old posts in an 800 page thread during a time where politically we don't exactly have much to gloat about.

Think I'll keep doing it my way unless told differently by mods, but thanks for your input.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I apologize for keeping this thread active, but has anyone ever mentioned the fact that Biden and Trump tied in the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex? They each got 1,504,789 votes.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dallas–Fort_Worth_metroplex#Politics

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I apologize for keeping this thread active, but has anyone ever mentioned the fact that Biden and Trump tied in the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex? They each got 1,504,789 votes.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dallas–Fort_Worth_metroplex#Politics

That's very interesting. TIL.

[Crane]

Where is Lurker? Is he... safe? Is he... all right?

Shut up, you hack. The Senate is gone and you're still trying to run victory laps. Celebrate the tiny, narrow victory of Mr. Electable all you want, but this was not a successful night by any stretch of the imagination for the Democratic Party.

And you're digging this up today why?

https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1401547638202380290

Been going through the thread the past few days, digging up particularly obstinate posts that were wrong. A lot of people incorrectly predicted the Senate, but you earned a quote with the "shut up,  you hack" line.

There's a "poorly aged content" thread for that. Not continuously empty quoting old posts in an 800 page thread during a time where politically we don't exactly have much to gloat about.

Think I'll keep doing it my way unless told differently by mods, but thanks for your input.

Then I'll keep calling you out for pointlessly bumping things unless the mods tell me otherwise.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Where is Lurker? Is he... safe? Is he... all right?

Shut up, you hack. The Senate is gone and you're still trying to run victory laps. Celebrate the tiny, narrow victory of Mr. Electable all you want, but this was not a successful night by any stretch of the imagination for the Democratic Party.

And you're digging this up today why?

https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1401547638202380290

Been going through the thread the past few days, digging up particularly obstinate posts that were wrong. A lot of people incorrectly predicted the Senate, but you earned a quote with the "shut up,  you hack" line.

There's a "poorly aged content" thread for that. Not continuously empty quoting old posts in an 800 page thread during a time where politically we don't exactly have much to gloat about.

Think I'll keep doing it my way unless told differently by mods, but thanks for your input.

Then I'll keep calling you out for pointlessly bumping things unless the mods tell me otherwise.

k

[South Dakota Democrat]

I kind of hope Arizona saves the day so John McCain’s ghost gets to give one last F you to Trump.

Dude, just stop.

[South Dakota Democrat]

This election is over. The only question is 1932 or 1980 sized wave.

Just wanted to relive the hubris of this moment, lol

Say hello to 1976/2000!

Yup, perhaps 1976 redux. Current NPV is similar, 50.1% to 48%.

Just hope 2024 won't be GOP realignment then.

What is there left for them to realign on?

Biden proves increasingly unpopular over his term his office, and the results from last night prove that the GOP has a path forward with Latino (and to a lesser extent) Black voters

I am astonished by how the Republican party was able to make gains with Hispanic and African American voters in this election. It looks like Donald Trump may hit 25% of the African American vote and a majority of Hispanic voters as well.

[Tekken_Guy]

I apologize for keeping this thread active, but has anyone ever mentioned the fact that Biden and Trump tied in the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex? They each got 1,504,789 votes.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dallas–Fort_Worth_metroplex#Politics

I plugged in the Metroplex into Redraw the States and Biden narrowly won it.