2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Thunder98]

Here is a comparison of 2020 and 2004 election county maps where incumbent Republican Presidents were facing re-election. You can clearly see how Republicans cratered in support throughout the sunbelt and metro areas in general, while Democrats has performed much worse in Appalachia and rural areas particularity in the Midwest and Maine..

2020


2004

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Here is a comparison of 2020 and 2004 election county maps where incumbent Republican Presidents were facing re-election. You can clearly see how Republicans cratered in support throughout the sunbelt and metro areas in general, while Democrats has performed much worse in Appalachia and rural areas particularity in the Midwest and Maine..

2020


2004

If I saw the 2020 County Map, I'd assume 305-233 Biden victory with NC anD GA flipping from reality.

[If my soul was made of stone]

The massive shifts under the hood in Illinois are quite stark, and a strong microcosm of the national movement.

[Tender Branson]

Rural Alaska Demd considerably ...

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

I'm sure it's been posted here before but I cannot locate it; do we have a 2004 -> 2020 swing and trend map? And how about 2012 -> 2020?

[Astatine]

Here is a comparison of 2020 and 2004 election county maps where incumbent Republican Presidents were facing re-election. You can clearly see how Republicans cratered in support throughout the sunbelt and metro areas in general, while Democrats has performed much worse in Appalachia and rural areas particularity in the Midwest and Maine..

2020


2004

Interesting to see how Kerry's map of a narrow win in Wisconsin is so much different from Biden's - Although bot victories were within 1 percent.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Biden did better in hampden township PA than Casey, it is super wealthy









and Biden did better in camp hill borough PA than Casey







pa could be mostly voting for R’s while cumberland mostly votes for d’s in the future lol

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

The Pundits, 1972:

It's getting closer and closer.

Biden will not win.

[Bootes Void]

GOD I love this timeline.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

here’s how Trump can still win:

[Thunder98]

Swing



Trend

[Chips]

I'd expect Pinellas to flip back in 2024.

[brucejoel99]

He's lost the same election to Joe Biden so many times now, it's honestly incredible:

https://twitter.com/Acosta/status/1368941080444612615

[South Dakota Democrat]

I don’t know why - I’ve been a dimmer this whole race but was turning that tcornwr the last few weeks but now all of a sudden today I have dread. I think today is a tossup and a trump win is not out of the question at all. I’d call it a true tossup. I think the early vote numbers are whatever - they’re just the same Dem votes must cast earlier due to the anti Trump sentiment and the pandemic.

And I think the senate is simply not happening. It’s broke the GOP Way in the last few days and I’d bet $100 easily that we don’t even get a 50/50 split.

A fool and his money....

Quote me and put me in the sig for tool bag entirety if I’m wrong but as usual (except for NV 18 SEN) I will be right. I called the Markey disaster months before pollsters did and posters on here did. When Bredesen has a lead in TN SEN briefly I said that race had no chance of flipping. Your replies of “good call” will be a sorry consolation to me trust me. But the Senate is a lost cause I guarantee it. Georgia is fools gold if I’ve ever seen it.

Three locks of the night:

POTUS is a tossup, winner gets under 300EV
DEMS keep House (100%), GOP keeps Senate (98%)
Georgia is an 0 for 3 state for Dems

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1350619147898679296
You can even see sub racial divides. The extreme south of dallas county is actually upper middle class educated black suburbs, so you can see them swing blue, while the red area above them are poorer less educated black inner city urban areas.

Okay, how the hell are the Park Cities and Preston Hollow still going for Republicans? Weird.

Suburbs in America are not at all monolithic. The Suburbs of Fort Worth are Extremely GOP, while Suburban San Fransico/DC are Extremely Dem.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Am I the only one who still thinks Biden wins lol

Yes lol. I’m sorry but ... that’s remarkably dumb

[South Dakota Democrat]

georgia is more disappointing than fl for dems

Shocked. Absolutely shocked

ga may actually swing R??

[South Dakota Democrat]

GA is actually looking like it's going to come down to 1% either way. The votes are coming in around metro ATL and they are not good for Trump vs. 2016 and 2018.

HAHAHAHAHAHA. Christ. Stop. Just stop

[South Dakota Democrat]

GA President might not be over yet, given the counting bias.

Is this board infected? I know I sound like a broken record but Christ on a cracker. Georgia is not happening. PERIOD. Write it down.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Called it

What's your thinking? You can quote me on this. Look at the margins and swings from 2016 coming out of Fulton, Dekalb, Gwinnett, Cobb. Even Cherokee and Fayette...

GA is actually looking like it's going to come down to 1% either way. The votes are coming in around metro ATL and they are not good for Trump vs. 2016 and 2018.

HAHAHAHAHAHA. Christ. Stop. Just stop

You called nothing. It’s NOT HAPPENING. You’ll see. Quote me. Write it down

[South Dakota Democrat]

Also my belief in Wisconsin being the bluest and Michigan being the reddest of the big three continues to be confirmed.

[It’s so Joever]

Also my belief in Wisconsin being the bluest and Michigan being the reddest of the big three continues to be confirmed.

Okay fine, conventional wisdom was correct.

[South Dakota Democrat]

AP showing Wisconsin with 93% reporting, Trump leading by 110,000 votes. Insurmountable.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Trump is flipping Nevada.

Bet on it.

[South Dakota Democrat]

I think Biden will win Wisconsin. Why are people not looking at the swings in the counties that are almost 100% reporting?

Dane has a 6-point swing towards the Democrats.
Ozaukee has a 7-point swing towards the Democrats.
Waukesha has a 6-point swing towards the Democrats, and I would expect it to become a little bit larger  because there's a chunk of uncounted absentee vote.
Eau Claire has a 3-point swing towards the Democrats.
Racine has a 1-point swing towards the Democrats.
St Croix has a 2-point swing towards the Democrats.

Up north, Douglas has a 2-point swing, Bayfield a 5-point swing, Ashland is staying pretty much the same.

I appreciate that the swings are mixed elsewhere in the state, but the aforementioned counties have a large population. Wisconsin only needs a swing of less than 1 percent to flip.

If Biden doesn't underperform horribly in Milwaukee and Kenosha, I think he's winning.

I think you’re right. And I also think Biden will win at least one of MI, PA, or GA. That will do it.

You know, I have to admire your determination. Biden is almost certain to lose yet you're still holding out hope.