2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Bootes Void]

just a reminder

[Horus]

Lol, I was going back and looking through e-night post when people thought the Presidency was a tossup and the Senate was a sure thing for Rs.

Now the Presidency is safe Biden and the Senate is a tossup.

This would've been a better outcome, specifically because 2022 would pretty much be the end for McConnell's tenure under another Trump midterm.

The only bright spot is if the Senate flips, and even that's not so good with those like Manchin and Sinema doing there thing.

It wouldn't have been. Four more years of Trump may well have completely ruined our democracy.

Two real years.

The final two would've been a complete lameduck. Hell, Dems might even have climbed up to 2009 levels in The House on the midterm rage alone.

Cute how you think there'd be elections at all under a second Trump term.

There weren't s'posed to be elections in 2018 either, especially not with a complete trifecta! They happened.

They weren't s'posed to happen in 2006 either come to think of it!

There was some dooming about 2018 but I never once heard anyone claim there'd be shenanigans in 2006. Bush was already in the doldrums approval wise, far more than Trump is now. Granted I was 15 and not quite as election obsessed as now but I grew up in a relatively left wing family and we talked politics daily.

A second term would've cemented Trump's hold on power and with no election to worry about he would've been ten times more unhinged. Presidents are almost always more radical in their second term.

[Bootes Void]

he didnt perform that much worse in Charlottesville, just most of the third party vote went to Biden

[Calthrina950]

Trump got absolutely destroyed in Charlottesville, VA. Received under 13% of the vote and performed significantly worse compared to 2016

It's astonishing that George W. Bush got 31% of the vote in Charlottesville as late as 2000. The city, which was already a Democratic stronghold by the turn of the millennium, has turned massively leftwards over the past 20 years. The events of 2017 certainly contributed to Biden's improvement in 2020 there.

[Kamala's side hoe]

I swear someone posted a different Nov 3rd retweet of this article earlier that day, in this megathread. It said something along the lines of "uhh yeah let me know how that's going"

Found it, it was in General MacArthur's ED reaction/post-mortem thread.

Biden openly centered his campaign on appealing to Republican moderates and older suburbanites at the expense of progressives, black voters, and Hispanic voters. This strategy moved the needle among suburb dwellers, thus continuing the trend from 2018, but deliberately ignored the party base and left many voices unheard. He could still win it, but it'll be by a hair and to the detriment of downballot Dems.

Possibly the clearest example:

https://twitter.com/bridgietherease/status/1323784380569939968

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Something I noticed...look at the results in Collin County, my home county. Republican presidential candidate vote tallies have grown 25-30% since 2012, but for Democrats, it is 115-120%.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

GA President might not be over yet, given the counting bias.

Is this board infected? I know I sound like a broken record but Christ on a cracker. Georgia is not happening. PERIOD. Write it down.

I have.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1350619147898679296

You can even see sub racial divides. The extreme south of dallas county is actually upper middle class educated black suburbs, so you can see them swing blue, while the red area above them are poorer less educated black inner city urban areas.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1350619147898679296

You can even see sub racial divides. The extreme south of dallas county is actually upper middle class educated black suburbs, so you can see them swing blue, while the red area above them are poorer less educated black inner city urban areas.

Well its also the fact those suburbs are still white flighting.

[Catalyst138]

One thing I didn’t realize until recently is that Bush won Dallas County in both 2000 and 2004. I know he’s from the state and everything, but I always assumed it was a longtime D county or at least one that flipped with Clinton like Clark or Miami-Dade.

[Alcibiades]

One thing I didn’t realize until recently is that Bush won Dallas County in both 2000 and 2004. I know he’s from the state and everything, but I always assumed it was a longtime D county or at least one that flipped with Clinton like Clark or Miami-Dade.

What is astonishing is that Bush won Travis County (Austin) in 2000; this has always been a generally Democratic County, and it goes to show how powerful the native son effect was in Texas. Dallas and Houston, by contrast, were some of the more Republican areas of Texas for most of the second half of the 20th Century.

[If my soul was made of stone]

One thing I didn’t realize until recently is that Bush won Dallas County in both 2000 and 2004. I know he’s from the state and everything, but I always assumed it was a longtime D county or at least one that flipped with Clinton like Clark or Miami-Dade.

What is astonishing is that Bush won Travis County (Austin) in 2000; this has always been a generally Democratic County, and it goes to show how powerful the native son effect was in Texas. Dallas and Houston, by contrast, were some of the more Republican areas of Texas for most of the second half of the 20th Century.

Nader got 10.4% in Travis, making it among his top 20 counties nationwide, and even in two-way races the county didn't return to giving Dems more than 60% as in the Solid South days until 2008, but Bush's 46.9% in the county in 2000 is still massive by contemporary standards.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1350619147898679296

You can even see sub racial divides. The extreme south of dallas county is actually upper middle class educated black suburbs, so you can see them swing blue, while the red area above them are poorer less educated black inner city urban areas.

Okay, how the hell are the Park Cities and Preston Hollow still going for Republicans? Weird.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1350619147898679296

You can even see sub racial divides. The extreme south of dallas county is actually upper middle class educated black suburbs, so you can see them swing blue, while the red area above them are poorer less educated black inner city urban areas.

Okay, how the hell are the Park Cities and Preston Hollow still going for Republicans? Weird.

Those areas probably voted for Bush, McCain and Romney by Stalinesque margins. Hard to break habits so quickly. Plus they're really rich and probably don't like the idea of paying more taxes.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1350619147898679296
You can even see sub racial divides. The extreme south of dallas county is actually upper middle class educated black suburbs, so you can see them swing blue, while the red area above them are poorer less educated black inner city urban areas.

Okay, how the hell are the Park Cities and Preston Hollow still going for Republicans? Weird.

It's hardly weird...

[Alcibiades]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1350619147898679296
You can even see sub racial divides. The extreme south of dallas county is actually upper middle class educated black suburbs, so you can see them swing blue, while the red area above them are poorer less educated black inner city urban areas.

Okay, how the hell are the Park Cities and Preston Hollow still going for Republicans? Weird.

In 2012, the super-elite parts of many otherwise staunchly blue counties in the Northeast, Midwest and West Coast (e.g. Darien and New Canaan, CT, Winnetka, IL, and Atherton, CA) still voted for Romney. If you think of the suburbs of the South/Sun Belt as following a roughly similar pattern of realignment, but being a few cycles behind their counterparts elsewhere in the country, it makes sense. Buckhead in Atlanta and Paradise Valley in Phoenix also voted for Trump.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1350619147898679296
You can even see sub racial divides. The extreme south of dallas county is actually upper middle class educated black suburbs, so you can see them swing blue, while the red area above them are poorer less educated black inner city urban areas.

Okay, how the hell are the Park Cities and Preston Hollow still going for Republicans? Weird.

In 2012, the super-elite parts of many otherwise staunchly blue counties in the Northeast, Midwest and West Coast (e.g. Darien and New Canaan, CT, Winnetka, IL, and Atherton, CA) still voted for Romney. If you think of the suburbs of the South/Sun Belt as following a roughly similar pattern of realignment, but being a few cycles behind their counterparts elsewhere in the country, it makes sense. Buckhead in Atlanta and Paradise Valley in Phoenix also voted for Trump.

But these aren't suburbs. They're neighborhoods right next to Downtown Dallas. If Frisco and Plano flipped, I'd have thought this area of inner Dallas would uave as well. Also, Buckhead voted Clinton/Abrams/Biden, which makes this even stranger. It's like if Beverly Hills or Uptown Manhattan backed a Republican.

[Alcibiades]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1350619147898679296
You can even see sub racial divides. The extreme south of dallas county is actually upper middle class educated black suburbs, so you can see them swing blue, while the red area above them are poorer less educated black inner city urban areas.

Okay, how the hell are the Park Cities and Preston Hollow still going for Republicans? Weird.

In 2012, the super-elite parts of many otherwise staunchly blue counties in the Northeast, Midwest and West Coast (e.g. Darien and New Canaan, CT, Winnetka, IL, and Atherton, CA) still voted for Romney. If you think of the suburbs of the South/Sun Belt as following a roughly similar pattern of realignment, but being a few cycles behind their counterparts elsewhere in the country, it makes sense. Buckhead in Atlanta and Paradise Valley in Phoenix also voted for Trump.

But these aren't suburbs. They're neighborhoods right next to Downtown Dallas. If Frisco and Plano flipped, I'd have thought this area of inner Dallas would uave as well. Also, Buckhead voted Clinton/Abrams/Biden, which makes this even stranger. It's like if Beverly Hills or Uptown Manhattan backed a Republican.

The Park Cities are much whiter, older, and wealthier than the suburbs you mention.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

This is being shared widely: https://howbidenstoletheelection.com/

[cg41386]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1350619147898679296
You can even see sub racial divides. The extreme south of dallas county is actually upper middle class educated black suburbs, so you can see them swing blue, while the red area above them are poorer less educated black inner city urban areas.

Okay, how the hell are the Park Cities and Preston Hollow still going for Republicans? Weird.

In 2012, the super-elite parts of many otherwise staunchly blue counties in the Northeast, Midwest and West Coast (e.g. Darien and New Canaan, CT, Winnetka, IL, and Atherton, CA) still voted for Romney. If you think of the suburbs of the South/Sun Belt as following a roughly similar pattern of realignment, but being a few cycles behind their counterparts elsewhere in the country, it makes sense. Buckhead in Atlanta and Paradise Valley in Phoenix also voted for Trump.

But these aren't suburbs. They're neighborhoods right next to Downtown Dallas. If Frisco and Plano flipped, I'd have thought this area of inner Dallas would uave as well. Also, Buckhead voted Clinton/Abrams/Biden, which makes this even stranger. It's like if Beverly Hills or Uptown Manhattan backed a Republican.

Biden won Beverly Hills, but the margin was somewhat close. The reasons behind that are specific, though (Persians).

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1350619147898679296

You can even see sub racial divides. The extreme south of dallas county is actually upper middle class educated black suburbs, so you can see them swing blue, while the red area above them are poorer less educated black inner city urban areas.

Okay, how the hell are the Park Cities and Preston Hollow still going for Republicans? Weird.

Cause southern politics is really more divided by racial polarization than urban vs rural even if it is too a much lesser extent as it was from 1994-2014.


Democrats yes to much better in urban counties but a huge reason for that is they are much more diverse than rural counties

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Can Biden even still win PA at this point?  How possible really is that right now?

Yes, more than 1.2 million ballots are left.

Those skew 75-24 Biden.

Trump's lead is 480.000 right now, but Biden will net more than 600.000 out of the remaining ballots.

Biden will finish ca. 100.000 ahead of Trump.

Please god let it be!

This is crazy. How is Georgia & North Carolina looking?

Trump will win NC, Biden narrowly favoured in GA.

Fools gold.

[ProgressiveModerate]

What I’m hoping for:

-Joe Biden wins the EC
-Peters maintains his senate seat
-Perdue is pushed below 50%

Is this too much to ask?

My dream really came true!

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

How is Georgia looking?

Perdue has easily won.

Trump won narrowly which is miraculous for Dems. The state has been a lost cause for years and especially this cycle. No matter how much of a hard on they get for it - it’s not happening and the fact people still at this hour believe it to have a chance of going Dem just shows the bankruptcy of their political analysis

[MR DARK BRANDON]

How is Georgia looking?

Perdue has easily won.

Trump won narrowly which is miraculous for Dems. The state has been a lost cause for years and especially this cycle. No matter how much of a hard on they get for it - it’s not happening and the fact people still at this hour believe it to have a chance of going Dem just shows the bankruptcy of their political analysis

Hey