2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Virginiá]

Biden did flip AZ and GA though, however narrowly. Two states Obama never won, hadn't been won since Bill Clinton in the 90s. In the end, he flipped everything he was "expected" to except NC and FL; the first was very close and the second has never been trusted, especially after 2018. If you just showed people a year ago the final map, including margins, they would consider it a resounding success.

Really, I think it's very clear that the biggest reason people found it underwhelming is the late ballot-counting left things hanging and feeling uncertain for so long. That said, it was possible to do the math and figure out the likely result on election night/early the morning after; by 5 AM November 4, I was calling the 306 map, as were several others in this very thread. It just didn't feel quite the same as seeing everything called by the networks and light up on their maps in a single night like it did in 2012.

Another part is that Democrats really did not do well downballot, and in a redistricting year - their last chance to try and even the scales. We lost the New Hampshire legislature and EC despite Biden winning the state by 7 points. We couldn't even defeat Collins in Maine. All of this stuff really mattered. A Senate majority being necessary for Biden to accomplish anything, and legislatures to avoid redistricting losses again.

I mean, yeah, the presidency is a bit less underwhelming at this point than it was 2 weeks ago, but the other results are very depressing.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1331393814028820481

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1331404288149643264

Is he citing a Twitter poll?

[n1240]

NY update:

Absentee count:

Biden 465473 (72.7%)
Trump 161344 (25.2%)
Total 640419

Margin of 47.5%, average weighted final eday margin of Trump +5.0%, so average swing of 52.5%.

Statewide total:

Biden 4164105 (57.1%)
Trump 3012114 (41.3%)
Total 7296726

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

New York finish counting your votes sometime before the heat death of the universe challenge.

[2952-0-0]

They should redefine the meaning of "New York Minute". Most actual third world countries are more efficient at counting votes.

[Calthrina950]

They should redefine the meaning of "New York Minute". Most actual third world countries are more efficient at counting votes.

As I was saying the other day, Florida and Texas-both of which have already certified their results-put New York and California to shame. I can only imagine how this election would be right now if they were swing states and the outcome was still in doubt.

[RI]

NM's results are official, btw.

[Tender Branson]

All AR counties have now certified their results:

https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/AR/106124/web.264614/#/summary

[Hnv1]

NY update:

Absentee count:

Biden 465473 (72.7%)
Trump 161344 (25.2%)
Total 640419

Margin of 47.5%, average weighted final eday margin of Trump +5.0%, so average swing of 52.5%.

Statewide total:

Biden 4164105 (57.1%)
Trump 3012114 (41.3%)
Total 7296726

any counties flipped? the current map still has Clinton and Dutchess red

last time Trump narrowly won upstate NY PV. I wonder if Biden flipped it back

[Tender Branson]

IN has also certified:

https://www.nwitimes.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/with-little-fanfare-or-controversy-indiana-certifies-its-2020-election-results/article_e5e6d31f-26be-549b-a802-a43887b6f841.html

[Tender Branson]

Any word on OH and TN ?

OH was supposed to certify yesterday, but didn't ...

RI has updated results yesterday, but still says "unofficial".

[Tender Branson]

Electoral Vote tracker, based on official/certified states + DC

29/51:

166 Trump
114 Biden

November 5th
Delaware

November 6th
New Hampshire

November 10th
Oklahoma
South Dakota
Vermont

November 11th
South Carolina
Wyoming

November 12th
North Dakota

November 17th
Florida

November 18th
Idaho
Mississippi
Virginia

November 19th
Louisiana
Massachusetts

November 20th
Georgia
Kentucky

November 23rd
Alabama
Maine (3 EV Biden, 1 EV Trump)
Michigan
Utah

November 24th
Arkansas
Hawaii
Indiana
Minnesota
Nevada
New Mexico
North Carolina
Pennsylvania
Texas

November 25th
Alaska

November 30th
Arizona
Colorado
Iowa
Montana
Nebraska

December 1st
Kansas
Wisconsin

December 2nd
District of Columbia

December 3rd
Connecticut
Oregon
Washington
West Virginia

December 4th
Illinois

December 7th
New York

December 8th
Maryland
Missouri
New Jersey

December 11th
California

December 14th
Electoral College votes

Unknown dates
Ohio (missed Nov. 24 deadline)
Rhode Island (results last updated Nov. 24, not yet official)
Tennessee (missed Nov. 23 deadline)

Results:

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html
https://cookpolitical.com/2020-national-popular-vote-tracker?

Certificates of Ascertainment:

https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/2020

[Tender Branson]

I have 29 states now as official/certified, Cook Political Report just 23.

The 6 different states are:

* AR (all counties have certified)
* HI (has no date for certification, but results seem to be final)
* ID (certified results a week ago in a press release, website not updated yet)
* IN (certified yesterday)
* MS (all 82 counties certified, no statewide aggregate so far)
* NV (certified yesterday)

[NOVA Green]

Keep it up Tender!!!

It's helping me with a side project of grabbing precinct level election results!

Weird US GE Election Year for so many reasons--- still this is an important project you are doing, and keep up the good work.

[BlueSwan]

So in all seriousness....does anybody actually know why New York counts votes slower than Trump walks down the West Point ramp?

[Tender Branson]

So in all seriousness....does anybody actually know why New York counts votes slower than Trump walks down the West Point ramp?

New York should be re-named into "New Sloth":

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

So a question for y'all:

*Immediately* following GWB's over-performance with Hispanics (but particularly Latinos) in 2004, were GOP'ers confident that these gains would hold for future cycles?

(I was nine at the time, so a tad bit young for such demographical analysis hehe.)

[Person Man]

So a question for y'all:

*Immediately* following GWB's over-performance with Hispanics (but particularly Latinos) in 2004, were GOP'ers confident that these gains would hold for future cycles?

(I was nine at the time, so a tad bit young for such demographical analysis hehe.)

Yeah. People were talking about how Democrats lost them over LGBT and abortion and needed to end church and state issues like that as a litmus tests or else Hispanics would become a swing vote.

[psychprofessor]

So a question for y'all:

*Immediately* following GWB's over-performance with Hispanics (but particularly Latinos) in 2004, were GOP'ers confident that these gains would hold for future cycles?

(I was nine at the time, so a tad bit young for such demographical analysis hehe.)

Yes, and Bush tried to cement this with passing immigration reform in his second term, which failed miserably. That lead to open revolt against McCain in 2008 (because of his support for the 2005 bill) and Romney's tight rope dance with self deportation in 2012.

[VAR]

#2004redux

[Middle-aged Europe]

So a question for y'all:

*Immediately* following GWB's over-performance with Hispanics (but particularly Latinos) in 2004, were GOP'ers confident that these gains would hold for future cycles?

(I was nine at the time, so a tad bit young for such demographical analysis hehe.)

Probably, but as psychprofessor has already indicated GWB was practically a RINO on immigration by today's standards. I recall Dubya holding campaign rallies and giving speeches in Spanish (which he apparently is almost fluent in) back in 2004 and he never called Mexicans rapists or ran on deporting all illegals. The image he tried to project was that he's Texas' native son and hence he also loved all Latinos.

[Pulaski]

Kinda funny that Delaware was the first state with official results and now Georgia the first state to ascertain Trump’s loss at the National Archives ...

Also: I didn’t know that Stacey Abrams is an Electoral College member for Biden. I thought they’d choose more obscure people for this job.

I think more and more both parties are trying to avoid faithless electors, which is fair enough when you consider debacles like 2016.

[Skye]

Dunno if this is the right place to post this, but King County, WA, will have its precinct-level results posted today at 4pm (local time). I'll try to make a map of it.

[n1240]

NY update:

Absentee count:

Biden 465473 (72.7%)
Trump 161344 (25.2%)
Total 640419

Margin of 47.5%, average weighted final eday margin of Trump +5.0%, so average swing of 52.5%.

Statewide total:

Biden 4164105 (57.1%)
Trump 3012114 (41.3%)
Total 7296726

any counties flipped? the current map still has Clinton and Dutchess red

last time Trump narrowly won upstate NY PV. I wonder if Biden flipped it back

Map I posted yesterday is pretty accurate representation of the counties fully/near fully reporting (missing a couple that added results today though, Chemung and Delaware, both of which are safe Trump counties)

[Mike88]

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1331600051429367810

Only Putin is left.