2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread
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Author Topic: 2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread  (Read 599320 times)
American2020
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« Reply #19525 on: November 24, 2020, 05:19:49 PM »

LA Certificate of Ascertainment
https://www.archives.gov/files/electoral-college/2020/ascertainment-louisiana.pdf

ND Certificate of Ascertainment
https://www.archives.gov/files/electoral-college/2020/ascertainment-north-dakota.pdf
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Crumpets
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« Reply #19526 on: November 24, 2020, 05:35:11 PM »



Lol at the biggest swing away from Trump being Pence's precinct and one of the only swings to Trump in Northwest being Javanka's precinct.
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Splash
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« Reply #19527 on: November 24, 2020, 05:46:54 PM »

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BudgieForce
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« Reply #19528 on: November 24, 2020, 05:53:15 PM »

Probably due to rounding, but Biden is offically at a 4% lead on the Cook Popular Vote tracker.

Biden - 51.1%

Trump - 47.1%
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Rep Jessica
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« Reply #19529 on: November 24, 2020, 05:56:08 PM »

Probably due to rounding, but Biden is offically at a 4% lead on the Cook Popular Vote tracker.

Biden - 51.1%

Trump - 47.1%

In 2024 I'll remember to cut the national poll lead %. The avg was 8-10% going into election day and we're going to be less then half that.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #19530 on: November 24, 2020, 05:59:04 PM »

Probably due to rounding, but Biden is offically at a 4% lead on the Cook Popular Vote tracker.

Biden - 51.1%

Trump - 47.1%

In 2024 I'll remember to cut the national poll lead %. The avg was 8-10% going into election day and we're going to be less then half that.

Except the dynamics are likely to be completely different 4 years from now. We can't assume the same turnout, demographics, polling errors, etc. Every cycle is unique to itself, honestly.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #19531 on: November 24, 2020, 05:59:19 PM »


Electoral Vote tracker, based on official/certified states + DC



25/51:

134 Trump
  109 Biden

Quote
November 5th
Delaware

November 6th
New Hampshire

November 10th
Oklahoma
South Dakota
Vermont

November 11th
South Carolina
Wyoming

November 12th
North Dakota

November 17th
Florida

November 18th
Idaho
Mississippi
Virginia

November 19th
Louisiana
Massachusetts

November 20th
Georgia
Kentucky

November 23rd
Alabama
Maine (3 EV Biden, 1 EV Trump)
Michigan
Utah

November 24th
District of Columbia
Hawaii
Indiana
Minnesota
Nevada (about a week early)
New Mexico
North Carolina
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Texas

November 25th
Alaska

November 30th
Arizona
Colorado
Iowa
Montana
Nebraska

December 1st
Kansas
Nevada
Wisconsin

December 3rd
Connecticut
Oregon
Washington
West Virginia

December 4th
Illinois

December 7th
New York

December 8th
Maryland
Missouri
New Jersey

December 11th
California

December 14th
Electoral College votes

Unknown dates
Arkansas (missed Nov. 18 deadline)
Rhode Island (results last updated Nov. 13, not yet official)
Tennessee (missed Nov. 23 deadline)

Results:

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html
https://cookpolitical.com/2020-national-popular-vote-tracker?

Certificates of Ascertainment:

https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/2020


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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #19532 on: November 24, 2020, 06:01:12 PM »

Probably due to rounding, but Biden is offically at a 4% lead on the Cook Popular Vote tracker.

Biden - 51.1%

Trump - 47.1%

In 2024 I'll remember to cut the national poll lead %. The avg was 8-10% going into election day and we're going to be less then half that.

The final 538 average was Biden +8.4, and he's probably going to wind up at about +4.5 or so when everything is counted.  This would be a miss of 3.9%, or about twice what it was in 2016.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #19533 on: November 24, 2020, 06:02:57 PM »

Probably due to rounding, but Biden is offically at a 4% lead on the Cook Popular Vote tracker.

Biden - 51.1%

Trump - 47.1%

In 2024 I'll remember to cut the national poll lead %. The avg was 8-10% going into election day and we're going to be less then half that.

The final 538 average was Biden +8.4, and he's probably going to wind up at about +4.5 or so when everything is counted.  This would be a miss of 3.9%, or about twice what it was in 2016.

Come 2024, the Democrat will probably be leading by about 10% in polls and this forum will still be split on who will win. Imagine telling someone in 2012 that the canidate who lead by 8.5% on average in the final polls only squeaked by in the EC at the end of the day
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emailking
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« Reply #19534 on: November 24, 2020, 06:06:21 PM »

I hope Trump's not on the ballot next time. They'll probably make a bunch more adjustments to account for the polling error and be off 7.8% anyway.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #19535 on: November 24, 2020, 07:07:08 PM »

NY update:

Absentee count:

Biden 396264 (73.0%)
Trump 137951 (25.5%)
Total 542907

Margin of 47.6%, average weighted final eday margin of Trump +5.8%, so average swing of 53.4%.

Statewide total:

Biden 4094896 (56.9%)
Trump 2988721 (41.5%)
Total 7199497

Is there a 100% up to date map anywhere?

Don't think so, Politico seems to be most up-to-date right now but missing Saratoga and Dutchess notably.

Could you make an Atlas-style map of the counties that are complete or almost-complete? That'd be really cool to see.

done (including Erie results from Wasserman)

Standard:



Swings:



Thanks!!!

Beautiful map.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #19536 on: November 24, 2020, 07:49:34 PM »

Probably due to rounding, but Biden is offically at a 4% lead on the Cook Popular Vote tracker.

Biden - 51.1%

Trump - 47.1%

In 2024 I'll remember to cut the national poll lead %. The avg was 8-10% going into election day and we're going to be less then half that.

The final 538 average was Biden +8.4, and he's probably going to wind up at about +4.5 or so when everything is counted.  This would be a miss of 3.9%, or about twice what it was in 2016.

Are there enough absentees left in NY to get Biden another 0.5%?
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Bootes Void
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« Reply #19537 on: November 24, 2020, 07:51:57 PM »

It's a bit funny to see how Biden got a higher vote share than Obama 2012 but everyone's treating this election like a nail biter but the 2012 one like a solid win
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Badger
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« Reply #19538 on: November 24, 2020, 07:56:24 PM »

It's a bit funny to see how Biden got a higher vote share than Obama 2012 but everyone's treating this election like a nail biter but the 2012 one like a solid win

Pretty reasonable given how the mail-in ballots were heavily Democratic and came in relatively late, thus giving all of us Democrats election night flashback syndrome from 2016.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #19539 on: November 24, 2020, 08:01:39 PM »

Probably due to rounding, but Biden is offically at a 4% lead on the Cook Popular Vote tracker.

Biden - 51.1%

Trump - 47.1%

In 2024 I'll remember to cut the national poll lead %. The avg was 8-10% going into election day and we're going to be less then half that.

The final 538 average was Biden +8.4, and he's probably going to wind up at about +4.5 or so when everything is counted.  This would be a miss of 3.9%, or about twice what it was in 2016.

Are there enough absentees left in NY to get Biden another 0.5%?

I would think so, his lead is only +15.6, and he should at least be able to top Clinton (+22.5)
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Hammy
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« Reply #19540 on: November 24, 2020, 08:10:17 PM »

Probably due to rounding, but Biden is offically at a 4% lead on the Cook Popular Vote tracker.

Biden - 51.1%

Trump - 47.1%

In 2024 I'll remember to cut the national poll lead %. The avg was 8-10% going into election day and we're going to be less then half that.

Just shift 70% or so of the undecideds to Trump (which is what I did for my predictions), that seems like it's what happened in both elections. Biden actually matched (and in fact might slightly exceed) his election day percentage on RCP of 51.2.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #19541 on: November 24, 2020, 08:10:17 PM »

It's a bit funny to see how Biden got a higher vote share than Obama 2012 but everyone's treating this election like a nail biter but the 2012 one like a solid win

Pretty reasonable given how the mail-in ballots were heavily Democratic and came in relatively late, thus giving all of us Democrats election night flashback syndrome from 2016.

It's also understandable since Biden won the battlegrounds he needed very narrowly while Obama won all of them, except Florida, by the low to mid single digits at least. Going state by state in those specific ones and with a similar national popular vote margin. Obama's performance was really exceptional and that's also while accounting for the fact that he did worse almost everywhere in the country in comparison to 2008!

I don't like the way people seem to be trying to undermine Biden's success in this election, but there is no doubt that it vastly pales compared to both of Obama's. Maybe it's unfair to be comparing them though.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #19542 on: November 24, 2020, 08:22:44 PM »

It's a bit funny to see how Biden got a higher vote share than Obama 2012 but everyone's treating this election like a nail biter but the 2012 one like a solid win

Pretty reasonable given how the mail-in ballots were heavily Democratic and came in relatively late, thus giving all of us Democrats election night flashback syndrome from 2016.

It's also understandable since Biden won the battlegrounds he needed very narrowly while Obama won all of them, except Florida, by the low to mid single digits at least. Going state by state in those specific ones and with a similar national popular vote margin. Obama's performance was really exceptional and that's also while accounting for the fact that he did worse almost everywhere in the country in comparison to 2008!

I don't like the way people seem to be trying to undermine Biden's success in this election, but there is no doubt that it vastly pales compared to both of Obama's. Maybe it's unfair to be comparing them though.

Biden did flip AZ and GA though, however narrowly. Two states Obama never won, hadn't been won since Bill Clinton in the 90s. In the end, he flipped everything he was "expected" to except NC and FL; the first was very close and the second has never been trusted, especially after 2018. If you just showed people a year ago the final map, including margins, they would consider it a resounding success.

Really, I think it's very clear that the biggest reason people found it underwhelming is the late ballot-counting left things hanging and feeling uncertain for so long. That said, it was possible to do the math and figure out the likely result on election night/early the morning after; by 5 AM November 4, I was calling the 306 map, as were several others in this very thread. It just didn't feel quite the same as seeing everything called by the networks and light up on their maps in a single night like it did in 2012.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #19543 on: November 24, 2020, 08:23:51 PM »

It's a bit funny to see how Biden got a higher vote share than Obama 2012 but everyone's treating this election like a nail biter but the 2012 one like a solid win

Pretty reasonable given how the mail-in ballots were heavily Democratic and came in relatively late, thus giving all of us Democrats election night flashback syndrome from 2016.

It's also understandable since Biden won the battlegrounds he needed very narrowly while Obama won all of them, except Florida, by the low to mid single digits at least. Going state by state in those specific ones and with a similar national popular vote margin. Obama's performance was really exceptional and that's also while accounting for the fact that he did worse almost everywhere in the country in comparison to 2008!

I don't like the way people seem to be trying to undermine Biden's success in this election, but there is no doubt that it vastly pales compared to both of Obama's. Maybe it's unfair to be comparing them though.

Biden did flip AZ and GA though, however narrowly. Two states Obama never won, hadn't been won since Bill Clinton in the 90s. In the end, he flipped everything he was "expected" to except NC and FL; the first was very close and the second has never been trusted, especially after 2018. If you just showed people a year ago the final map, including margins, they would consider it a resounding success.

Really, I think it's very clear that the biggest reason people found it underwhelming is the late ballot-counting left things hanging and feeling uncertain for so long. That said, it was possible to do the math and figure out the likely result on election night/early the morning after; by 5 AM November 4, I was calling the 306 map, as were several others in this very thread. It just didn't feel quite the same as seeing everything called by the networks and light up on their maps in a single night like it did in 2012.

Very true. And it could have been that way if Republican state legislatures didn't opt to count mail-in votes after all others were counted.
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South Dakota Democrat
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« Reply #19544 on: November 24, 2020, 08:36:14 PM »

It's a bit funny to see how Biden got a higher vote share than Obama 2012 but everyone's treating this election like a nail biter but the 2012 one like a solid win

2012 was a blowout compared to this election, because Obama overperformed in the Electoral College.  Obama would have had to have lost the PV by like 1.5% to lose the election.  The battleground states ended up being not all that close, for the most part, in 2012.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #19545 on: November 24, 2020, 08:58:54 PM »

It's a bit funny to see how Biden got a higher vote share than Obama 2012 but everyone's treating this election like a nail biter but the 2012 one like a solid win

2012 was a blowout compared to this election, because Obama overperformed in the Electoral College.  Obama would have had to have lost the PV by like 1.5% to lose the election.  The battleground states ended up being not all that close, for the most part, in 2012.

While the PV winner won the EC, this election will likely have the largest EV/PV gap since 1948.  It really was closer than it looks. 
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emailking
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« Reply #19546 on: November 24, 2020, 09:21:38 PM »

Yeah I keep haring commentators on TV say it wasn't that close. It was razor thin and closer than 2016.
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emailking
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« Reply #19547 on: November 24, 2020, 09:23:16 PM »



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Pericles
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« Reply #19548 on: November 24, 2020, 09:23:27 PM »

Yeah Obama won the tipping point state by 5.4%, Biden has won it by just 0.6%. Sadly, in the American system that's what matters.
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Non Swing Voter
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« Reply #19549 on: November 24, 2020, 09:25:30 PM »





I love seeing his emotional breakdowns.  He's really suffering. 
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