Final Redfield & Wilton State Polls: Biden leads in AZ, FL, PA, WI, MI, NC

[Lief 🗽]

https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/eve-of-the-election-report-and-final-swing-states-voting-intention-26-29-october/

AZ

Biden 50
Trump 46

FL

Biden 50
Trump 46

MI

Biden 54
Trump 41

PA

Biden 50
Trump 45

WI

Biden 53
Trump 41

NC

Biden 49
Trump 47

[Progressive Pessimist]

Jolly good! I really hope that British pollsters, like this one, end up gaining some credibility with their polls this year.

[Alben Barkley]

It will be weird if PA really does end up as far to the right of MI and WI as basically every poll now is suggesting. A small part of me will be happy about it because it will vindicate me for saying for the past four years that it was dumb to assume WI would be the one significantly to the right. But a larger part of me will be a bit concerned about it going forward. I think the growth and D trend in the Philly suburbs will keep it competitive at least. But even just forgetting about 2016, PA was the state that the GOP was most bullish on going back to like the Bush days. Apparently not totally without reason.

[Crumpets]

I'm getting the distinct impression that either 1) Biden is up by 5 in PA or 2) polls are herding there.

[swf541]

I'm getting the distinct impression that either 1) Biden is up by 5 in PA or 2) polls are herding there.

^^

Really curious to see PA's final margin

[kireev]

Just an example of their weighted 2016 sample from FL: Trump 45%, Clinton 39%, Other 2%, Didn't vote 14%.

NC:  Trump 44%, Clinton 38%, Other 3%, Didn't vote 15%.

In NC 28.5% of current 2020 voters did not vote in 2016 per https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/NC.html in FL it's similar. And the percentage of non-voters has been steadily going up as early vote progressed. And of course Biden is leading by a large margin among 2016 non-voters in all the states.

[OSR stands with Israel]

It will be weird if PA really does end up as far to the right of MI and WI as basically every poll now is suggesting. A small part of me will be happy about it because it will vindicate me for saying for the past four years that it was dumb to assume WI would be the one significantly to the right. But a larger part of me will be a bit concerned about it going forward. I think the growth and D trend in the Philly suburbs will keep it competitive at least. But even just forgetting about 2016, PA was the state that the GOP was most bullish on going back to like the Bush days. Apparently not totally without reason.

In 2004 many people believed Bush would win WI while losing OH

[Andy Hine]

It will be weird if PA really does end up as far to the right of MI and WI as basically every poll now is suggesting. A small part of me will be happy about it because it will vindicate me for saying for the past four years that it was dumb to assume WI would be the one significantly to the right. But a larger part of me will be a bit concerned about it going forward. I think the growth and D trend in the Philly suburbs will keep it competitive at least. But even just forgetting about 2016, PA was the state that the GOP was most bullish on going back to like the Bush days. Apparently not totally without reason.

In 2004 many people believed Bush would win WI while losing OH

If I followed politics back then, I would have called them dumb lol.

[OSR stands with Israel]

It will be weird if PA really does end up as far to the right of MI and WI as basically every poll now is suggesting. A small part of me will be happy about it because it will vindicate me for saying for the past four years that it was dumb to assume WI would be the one significantly to the right. But a larger part of me will be a bit concerned about it going forward. I think the growth and D trend in the Philly suburbs will keep it competitive at least. But even just forgetting about 2016, PA was the state that the GOP was most bullish on going back to like the Bush days. Apparently not totally without reason.

In 2004 many people believed Bush would win WI while losing OH

If I followed politics back then, I would have called them dumb lol.

Not really and its not like he did much worse in WI than OH anyway.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Changes added below (all likely voters)

https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/eve-of-the-election-report-and-final-swing-states-voting-intention-26-29-october/

AZ
Oct 26-29
889
Changes with Oct 4-7

Biden 50 (+1)
Trump 46 (+3)
Jorgensen 2 (+1)
Hawkins 0 (-1)
Other 1% (n/c)
Undecided 2% (-4)

FL
Oct 27-28
1587
Changes with Oct 4-6

Biden 50 (+1)
Trump 46 (+2)
Jorgensen 1 (n/c)
Hawkins 0 (n/c)
Other 0% (-1)
Undecided 3% (-3)

MI
Oct 26-29
1212
Changes with Oct 4-6

Biden 54 (+4)
Trump 41 (-1)
Jorgensen 1 (n/c)
Hawkins 0 (n/c)
Other 1% (n/c)
Undecided 4% (-2)

PA
Oct 26-29
2125
Changes with Oct 4-6

Biden 50 (+1)
Trump 45 (+3)
Jorgensen 1 (n/c)
Other 1% (n/c)
Don't know 3% (-4)

WI
Oct 26-29
800
Changes with Oct 4-7
 
Biden 53 (+2)
Trump 41 (n/c)
Jorgensen 2 (+1)
Other 1% (n/c)
Don't know 3% (-3)

NC
Oct 26-29
1489
Changes with Oct 4-6

Biden 49 (n/c)
Trump 47 (+3)
Jorgensen 2 (+1)
Hawkins 0 (n/c)
Other 0% (n/c)
Don't know 2% (-3)

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Fuller results here with results for intermediate R&W polls:  https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Redfield__Wilton_Strategies_Eve_of_the_Election_Report_SB.pdf

Oct 9-10 and Oct 10-13 surveys for each state.

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Arizona President by Redfield & Wilton on 2020-10-29

Summary: D: 50%, R: 46%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: North Carolina President by Redfield & Wilton on 2020-10-29

Summary: D: 49%, R: 47%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Wisconsin President by Redfield & Wilton on 2020-10-29

Summary: D: 53%, R: 41%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Pennsylvania President by Redfield & Wilton on 2020-10-29

Summary: D: 50%, R: 45%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Michigan President by Redfield & Wilton on 2020-10-29

Summary: D: 54%, R: 41%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Florida President by Redfield & Wilton on 2020-10-28

Summary: D: 50%, R: 46%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[wbrocks67]

I could be totally wrong but I really feel one of the bigger polling "misses" this year (aside from GA and TX) will be that pollsters for some reason kept underestimating PA as so far to the right of WI/MI. I have no idea why they keep getting a result that seems so much more R than the other 2.