NBC/Marist: Biden+5 in PA, tie in AZ
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  NBC/Marist: Biden+5 in PA, tie in AZ
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Author Topic: NBC/Marist: Biden+5 in PA, tie in AZ  (Read 5904 times)
swf541
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« Reply #50 on: November 02, 2020, 01:40:51 PM »

So y'all gonna just adjust hispanics to give Biden a lead or adjust whites too?

Or how about we all just agree to junk Marist?

I'd be alright with junking Marist until they fix their methodology tbqh
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CellarDoor
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« Reply #51 on: November 02, 2020, 01:41:37 PM »

So y'all gonna just adjust hispanics to give Biden a lead or adjust whites too?

Or how about we all just agree to junk Marist?

Or how about neither?  Marist isn't junk.  Sometimes good pollsters get funky results and crosstabs are unreliable.  Stick 'em in the average (which shows Biden ahead in AZ) and move on.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #52 on: November 02, 2020, 01:42:11 PM »

I always predicted Biden would win AZ by Sinema's 2018 margin, looking pretty likely right now.
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swf541
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« Reply #53 on: November 02, 2020, 01:44:37 PM »

So y'all gonna just adjust hispanics to give Biden a lead or adjust whites too?

Or how about we all just agree to junk Marist?

Or how about neither?  Marist isn't junk.  Sometimes good pollsters get funky results and crosstabs are unreliable.  Stick 'em in the average (which shows Biden ahead in AZ) and move on.

It's not junk but their refusal to adjust to corrective methodology post 2016 does not warrent an A+ rating
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #54 on: November 02, 2020, 01:53:52 PM »

Yeah this is terrifying. I was talking myself out of the doomers club but ...
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #55 on: November 02, 2020, 03:07:40 PM »



Biden isn't running even with AZ Hispanics, fwiw.

omg what in the world. even with Latinos??? what is the poll smoking?
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Vaccinated Russian Bear
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« Reply #56 on: November 02, 2020, 03:25:24 PM »

Ones of the best (though, still bad) polls for Trump given that they don't weight by education.
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Figueira
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« Reply #57 on: November 02, 2020, 04:33:45 PM »

Why argue about whether a poll is right when the election is literally tomorrow?
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swf541
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« Reply #58 on: November 02, 2020, 04:35:43 PM »

Why argue about whether a poll is right when the election is literally tomorrow?

Yes, but what else would we do?
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Buffalo Mayor Young Kim
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« Reply #59 on: November 02, 2020, 05:11:53 PM »

Yeah this is terrifying. I was talking myself out of the doomers club but ...
Biden winning PA by five and tied in AZ is a Biden walking to reelection
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SenatorCouzens
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« Reply #60 on: November 02, 2020, 05:25:35 PM »

I don't like Biden appearing, the night before the election, in Pennsylvania with Lady Gaga. Seems risky that he will be perceived as out of touch and all Trump will talk about is how she is an "anti-fracking activist."

If Trump eeks out a victory it will because he narrowly won AZ and PA.

Appalling idea to be appearing with Lady Gaga in PA. Why take the risk? This probably won't hurt him, but it definitely won't help him.
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exopolitician
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« Reply #61 on: November 02, 2020, 05:27:18 PM »

I don't like Biden appearing, the night before the election, in Pennsylvania with Lady Gaga. Seems risky that he will be perceived as out of touch and all Trump will talk about is how she is an "anti-fracking activist."

If Trump eeks out a victory it will because he narrowly won AZ and PA.

Appalling idea to be appearing with Lady Gaga in PA. Why take the risk? This probably won't hurt him, but it definitely won't help him.

Hes been campaigning the most in PA the last two days, I dont see how this election eve event is an appalling idea.
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SenatorCouzens
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« Reply #62 on: November 02, 2020, 05:32:22 PM »

I don't like Biden appearing, the night before the election, in Pennsylvania with Lady Gaga. Seems risky that he will be perceived as out of touch and all Trump will talk about is how she is an "anti-fracking activist."

If Trump eeks out a victory it will because he narrowly won AZ and PA.

Appalling idea to be appearing with Lady Gaga in PA. Why take the risk? This probably won't hurt him, but it definitely won't help him.

Hes been campaigning the most in PA the last two days, I dont see how this election eve event is an appalling idea.

I just don't like that he is with Lady Gaga and highlighting her.

Something screwy happening at the 11th hour in PA is basically Trump's best path to victory.

Appearing with Lady Gaga does not gain Biden a single vote in PA, but risks casting him in an unserious light the eve of this crucial election and easier to paint as an elitist and anti-fracking. Like I said, it probably won't have an impact but it's a risk and I don't like it!
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Badger
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« Reply #63 on: November 02, 2020, 05:35:17 PM »

Why argue about whether a poll is right when the election is literally tomorrow?

Yes, but what else would we do?

Yeah. " get a life"? " spend time with family and friends"? Pffft!
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Hammy
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« Reply #64 on: November 02, 2020, 05:41:05 PM »
« Edited: November 02, 2020, 05:46:48 PM by Hammy »

Marist was one of the few polls to end up being left of Arizona's Senate result, and off by the most in PA. Really not a good poll to see going into Election Day.  That said, I continue to wonder if there is a higher rate of Dems not answering polls this time as they've already voted, given the early vote is a significantly higher % of the vote this year.

Biden being only +5 in PA (Marist had Clinton +12 in 2016), while Rasmussen has him +3, I have no idea what to make of today's polling there.
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