Kuumo
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,082
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« on: November 02, 2020, 05:45:40 PM » |
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« edited: November 02, 2020, 06:23:35 PM by Dread it, run from it, Republican Iowa arrives all the same »
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These are my final predictions for the 2020 elections. Enjoy!
President
Joe Biden/Kamala Harris: 305 EV, 52.6% PV
Donald Trump/Mike Pence: 233 EV, 45.5% PV
Biden is elected the 46th President of the United States.
States/districts within 15 points:
NM: Biden +13.6
VA: Biden + 12.8
CO: Biden + 10.3
ME-AL: Biden +9.1
NV: Biden +8.9
NH: Biden +8.7
NE-02: Biden +6.5
MN: Biden +6.0
MI: Biden +5.1
WI: Biden +4.6
AZ: Biden +4.3
PA: Biden +3.8
NC: Biden +0.3
FL: Trump +0.2
GA: Trump +0.6
TX: Trump +1.9
OH: Trump +4.4
ME-02: Trump +5.1
IA: Trump +6.1
SC: Trump +9.6
AK: Trump +11.0
MT: Trump +12.2
MO: Trump +14.4
IN: Trump +14.6
Senate
50 D (+3), 50 R
Democrats retake the Senate with Harris as the tiebreaking vote.
Key races:
AL: Tuberville +14.0 (R pickup)
AK: Sullivan +8.3
AZ: Kelly +7.1 (D pickup)
CO: Hickenlooper +9.6 (D pickup)
GA-R: Perdue +0.5 (in runoff with Ossoff)
GA-S: Loeffler +0.2 (in runoff with Warnock)
IA: Ernst +4.4
KS: Marshall +7.0
ME: Gideon +2.2 (after RCV)
MI: Peters +4.6
MT: Daines +2.1
NC: Cunningham +0.4
SC: Graham +5.9
TX: Cornyn +3.0
Governor
Key races:
MO: Parson +7.0
MT: Gianforte +5.6
NC: Cooper +9.5
House:
245 D (+10), 190 R
Democrats hold their House majority.
D to R pickups:
MN-07
OK-05
L to R pickups:
MI-03
R to D pickups:
CA-25
GA-07
IN-05
MO-02
NC-02
NC-06
NE-02
NJ-02
TX-21
TX-22
TX-23
TX-24
Remember to bump this if Greenfield wins in Iowa, so I can eat crow and change my avatar to "SENATOR THERESA GREENFIELD (D-IA)" for the rest of November.
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