Quinnipiac: Biden +11 (national), +5 (FL), +4 (OH)
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  Quinnipiac: Biden +11 (national), +5 (FL), +4 (OH)
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Author Topic: Quinnipiac: Biden +11 (national), +5 (FL), +4 (OH)  (Read 6437 times)
Pericles
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« Reply #25 on: November 02, 2020, 02:45:37 PM »

It's actually plausible that Biden outperforms the polls (OH I am more suspicious of). There is no iron law saying any polling error has to benefit Trump. A 9 point lead is a 9 point lead.
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kwabbit
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« Reply #26 on: November 02, 2020, 02:49:40 PM »

Is it just me, or are a lot of pollsters finding more undecideds compared to their September/October polls? These are all near double digit undecideds. Selzer had more undecideds than last time as well, along with NBC.

You'd expect less right before the election; it's kinda weird that there is this pattern.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #27 on: November 02, 2020, 02:52:31 PM »

It's actually plausible that Biden outperforms the polls (OH I am more suspicious of). There is no iron law saying any polling error has to benefit Trump. A 9 point lead is a 9 point lead.
In fact, as far as I'm concerned, there is nothing that says a polling error in favor of Trump is any more likely than one in favor of Biden.
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Liberalrocks
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« Reply #28 on: November 02, 2020, 02:53:00 PM »

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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #29 on: November 02, 2020, 02:54:19 PM »

Is it just me, or are a lot of pollsters finding more undecideds compared to their September/October polls? These are all near double digit undecideds. Selzer had more undecideds than last time as well, along with NBC.

You'd expect less right before the election; it's kinda weird that there is this pattern.
I think itís people who already voted refusing to say who they voted for.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #30 on: November 02, 2020, 02:55:07 PM »

Is it just me, or are a lot of pollsters finding more undecideds compared to their September/October polls? These are all near double digit undecideds. Selzer had more undecideds than last time as well, along with NBC.

You'd expect less right before the election; it's kinda weird that there is this pattern.
I think itís people who already voted refusing to say who they voted for.

Yeah I think it's this. And maybe a lot of people who already voted just aren't responding at all.
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Beet
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« Reply #31 on: November 02, 2020, 02:55:10 PM »

Is it just me, or are a lot of pollsters finding more undecideds compared to their September/October polls? These are all near double digit undecideds. Selzer had more undecideds than last time as well, along with NBC.

You'd expect less right before the election; it's kinda weird that there is this pattern.

Yeah this reminds me of those later Hillary Clinton polls from 2016.

50% = solid
49% = near solid
48% = still good if it's a lead
47% = worrisome
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n1240
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« Reply #32 on: November 02, 2020, 02:59:01 PM »

This poll led RCP to drop the Monmouth poll from their average yet keep the Trafalgar poll which finished sampling the same day as Monmouth

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Crumpets
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« Reply #33 on: November 02, 2020, 02:59:49 PM »

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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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« Reply #34 on: November 02, 2020, 03:00:49 PM »
« Edited: November 02, 2020, 05:01:16 PM by Monstro Still Believes in a Blue Texas & a Blue Georgia »

So far, I've seen the following just in this thread:

- I think Trump's gonna win _____ anyway, but I'd love to be proven wrong"
- "I want to believe"
- "_____ has a D/R lean"
- Buzz//SirWoodbury/a doomer make a comment which derails the thread
- "OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!" (Honestly, I love this one)

My biggest regret about this election is not making a bingo card or more drinking games for the polling board & prediction threads
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #35 on: November 02, 2020, 03:02:46 PM »

J O E H I O
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Hammy
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« Reply #36 on: November 02, 2020, 03:04:00 PM »

High undecideds for a day before poll, pretty much useless.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #37 on: November 02, 2020, 03:04:20 PM »

So far, I've seen the following posts in this thread:

- I think Trump's gonna win _____ anyway, but I'd love to be proven wrong"
- "I want to believe"
- "_____ has a D/R lean"

My biggest regret about this election is not making a bingo card or drinking game for the polling board & prediction threads

Love to read through one (1) thread on the Atlas Forum polling board and immediately die of alcohol poisoning.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #38 on: November 02, 2020, 03:08:34 PM »

These are virtually useless... why does Q-pac suddenly have so many undecideds?
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #39 on: November 02, 2020, 03:32:46 PM »

This poll led RCP to drop the Monmouth poll from their average yet keep the Trafalgar poll which finished sampling the same day as Monmouth



WTF does the NYT/Siena poll have an asterisk for too?
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #40 on: November 02, 2020, 03:37:12 PM »

This poll led RCP to drop the Monmouth poll from their average yet keep the Trafalgar poll which finished sampling the same day as Monmouth



WTF does the NYT/Siena poll have an asterisk for too?
Lamestream media is as biased as GOP super PACs.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #41 on: November 02, 2020, 04:51:07 PM »

Oct 28-Nov 1

National
1516 likely voters, MoE: 2.5%, Changes with Oct 16-19

Biden 50% (-1)
Trump 39% (-2)
Someone else 2% (n/c)
Don't know/no answer 9% (+5)

FL
1657 likely voters, MoE: 2.4%, Changes with Oct 23-27

Biden 47% (+2)
Trump 42% (n/c)
Someone else 1% (n/c)
Don't know/no answer 9% (-2)

OH
1440 likely voters, MoE: 2.6%, Changes with Oct 23-27

Biden 47% (-1)
Trump 43% (n/c)
Someone else 2% (+1)
Don't know/no answer 8% (n/c)
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #42 on: November 02, 2020, 04:59:04 PM »
« Edited: November 03, 2020, 05:33:39 AM by Landslide Lyndon »

I know everyone loves to dump on Quinnipiac but the truth is that they have nailed Florida in the last three presidential elections.
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swf541
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« Reply #43 on: November 02, 2020, 04:59:46 PM »

I know everyone loves to dumb on Quinnipiac but the truth is that they have nailed Florida in the last three presidential elections.

Pretty much this, discount them 100% on your own peril
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #44 on: November 02, 2020, 05:01:26 PM »

Starting to wonder if Biden wins Florida and loses Pennsylvania.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #45 on: November 02, 2020, 05:03:08 PM »

Starting to wonder if Biden wins Florida and loses Pennsylvania.

HIGHLY unlikely.

This is why people need to stop reading too much into any one poll or just a handful of polls. Gotta look at the bigger picture.
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Badger
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« Reply #46 on: November 02, 2020, 05:04:49 PM »

Nice, but keep in mind that Quinnipiac has had a distinct D lean for the past couple of years.  But it's probably not more than 2 or 3 points.

So an eight or nine point Nationwide Victory including a point or two up in Ohio?

I'll take it!
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MRS DONNA SHALALA
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« Reply #47 on: November 02, 2020, 05:05:08 PM »

If these are true, the 413 map is likely.
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GP270watch
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« Reply #48 on: November 02, 2020, 05:23:23 PM »

Summary for most of the latest polls: Widen. Let's hope they're right.
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ExSky
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« Reply #49 on: November 02, 2020, 05:26:53 PM »

Glad to see they posted these.  These will be embarrassing too look back in for them.

Are you talking about your own comments
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