NBC/Marist: Biden+5 in PA, tie in AZ
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  NBC/Marist: Biden+5 in PA, tie in AZ
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Author Topic: NBC/Marist: Biden+5 in PA, tie in AZ  (Read 5895 times)
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #25 on: November 02, 2020, 01:14:47 PM »
« edited: November 02, 2020, 01:20:02 PM by TiltsAreUnderrated »

Oct 29 -Nov 1

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/final-nbc-marist-state-polls-show-close-races-pennsylvania-arizona-n1245775

Arizona
717 likely voters
MoE: 4.5%

Biden 48
Trump 48
Other 3
Undecided 1

10/29-11/1, 717 LV

Changes among 988 registered voters (with July 14-22, MoE: 3.9%):
Biden 48% (-2)
Trump 47% (+2)
Other 3 (+2)
Undecided 2 (-1)

Pennsylvania
772 likely voters
MoE: 4.4%
Changes with Aug 31-Sep 7

Biden 51 (-2)
Trump 46 (+2)
Other 1 (n/c)
Undecided 2 (n/c)

10/29-11/1, 772 LV


I'd add more, but access to the poll documents is forbidden right now. Anyone else having that problem?
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #26 on: November 02, 2020, 01:15:31 PM »

So Trump gains 4 points in margin in arguably the two most important swing states of the election in a last minute poll and nobody here is even worried?
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
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« Reply #27 on: November 02, 2020, 01:15:39 PM »

I do not like seeing a poll that has AZ only tied. This is bad. Not because it means Trump will win or is likely to win, but because it suggests that there is a slim possibility. And a slim possibility is too much of a possibility.
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n1240
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« Reply #28 on: November 02, 2020, 01:17:19 PM »


I'd add more, but access to the poll documents is forbidden right now. Anyone else having that problem?

working now
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swf541
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« Reply #29 on: November 02, 2020, 01:17:34 PM »

So Trump gains 4 points in margin in arguably the two most important swing states of the election in a last minute poll and nobody here is even worried?
No because its expected and Biden is above 50 in PA

That and your ignoring other polls constantly is highly annoying.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #30 on: November 02, 2020, 01:19:39 PM »

So Trump gains 4 points in margin in arguably the two most important swing states of the election in a last minute poll and nobody here is even worried?
No because its expected and Biden is above 50 in PA

That and your ignoring other polls constantly is highly annoying.

What is expected? Did everyone expect Trump to surge right before the election or did I miss the memo? What other polls am I ignoring? If we're talking about Arizona polls, Biden has lost 5, 4, and 3 points respectively in margin in this, Data Orbital, and NYT-Siena.
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swf541
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« Reply #31 on: November 02, 2020, 01:19:54 PM »

So Trump gains 4 points in margin in arguably the two most important swing states of the election in a last minute poll and nobody here is even worried?
No because its expected and Biden is above 50 in PA

That and your ignoring other polls constantly is highly annoying.

What is expected? Did everyone expect Trump to surge right before the election or did I miss the memo? What other polls am I ignoring? If we're talking about Arizona polls, Biden has lost 5, 4, and 3 points respectively in margin in this, Data Orbital, and NYT-Siena.

"Surge"
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #32 on: November 02, 2020, 01:21:06 PM »

I'd add more, but access to the poll documents is forbidden right now. Anyone else having that problem?

working now

Awesome. I've added more details accordingly (in both threads).
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #33 on: November 02, 2020, 01:22:34 PM »

Every Sunbelt state is converging on Biden +1. It's freaking me out.
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WD
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« Reply #34 on: November 02, 2020, 01:23:51 PM »

God, please calm down.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #35 on: November 02, 2020, 01:24:00 PM »

Are we seriously going to fall for the Arizona trap again? Does anyone remember that Unbeatable Titan Strong Candidate Martha McSally was WINNING in the RCP average in 2018?Huh

Good point. AZ, NV, TX polls have all seemed to underestimate Dems in recent elections.
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bandg
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« Reply #36 on: November 02, 2020, 01:24:13 PM »

Interesting that this poll and other polls are starting to align more closely with Trump approval than favorable (Approve 46-50, Favorable 43-53).
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afleitch
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« Reply #37 on: November 02, 2020, 01:24:49 PM »

These are changes from July and September respectively.
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MR DARK BRANDON
Liam
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« Reply #38 on: November 02, 2020, 01:24:52 PM »

Let’s get this to 20 pages, we can do it atlas!!! Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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OBD
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« Reply #39 on: November 02, 2020, 01:27:40 PM »

Not good, not terrible. We will see tomorrow.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #40 on: November 02, 2020, 01:31:22 PM »

I just want Trump to lose. I know we'll have a pretty good idea in 30 hours, but this anticipation sucks.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #41 on: November 02, 2020, 01:31:31 PM »

Did they even poll in Spanish?
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swf541
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« Reply #42 on: November 02, 2020, 01:32:15 PM »


Good question.
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CellarDoor
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« Reply #43 on: November 02, 2020, 01:34:34 PM »



Biden isn't running even with AZ Hispanics, fwiw.
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swf541
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« Reply #44 on: November 02, 2020, 01:35:22 PM »

Um wat ok so they didnt poll in spanish?
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ElectionObserver
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« Reply #45 on: November 02, 2020, 01:36:09 PM »

Poll was conducted in English/ Spanish in both states according to the tables.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #46 on: November 02, 2020, 01:36:39 PM »



Biden isn't running even with AZ Hispanics, fwiw.

ahahhahahahahhahahahhaha
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swf541
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« Reply #47 on: November 02, 2020, 01:37:41 PM »

So Biden is running even with whites but also with hispanics? Lmfao

Alright that calms me down on this poll.

Biden +5 in PA looks pretty good with the top line as well.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #48 on: November 02, 2020, 01:40:13 PM »

So y'all gonna just adjust hispanics to give Biden a lead or adjust whites too?

Or how about we all just agree to junk Marist?
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CellarDoor
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« Reply #49 on: November 02, 2020, 01:40:43 PM »

Everyone needs to relax.  The most stable election in modern history isn't going to swing on a dime on the last day, especially given how many people have already voted.  
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