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December 04, 2020, 11:55:11 PM
News: 2020 Election day live thread: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=409870.0

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, TJ in Oregon, YE, ON Progressive)
  NBC/Marist: Biden+5 in PA, tie in AZ
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Author Topic: NBC/Marist: Biden+5 in PA, tie in AZ  (Read 1575 times)
n1240
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« on: November 02, 2020, 01:01:59 PM »

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/final-nbc-marist-state-polls-show-close-races-pennsylvania-arizona-n1245775

Arizona

Biden 48
Trump 48

10/29-11/1, 717 LV

Pennsylvania

Biden 51
Trump 46

10/29-11/1, 772 LV
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swf541
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« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2020, 01:03:04 PM »

Not bad wish they weighted by education tho
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #2 on: November 02, 2020, 01:03:12 PM »

Every time I get more confident about AZ, a poll like this comes out. I'm still pretty sure Biden's gonna win it, but it's probably about the same level as NC now, not significantly higher.
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#SaveTheSenate
VARepublican
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« Reply #3 on: November 02, 2020, 01:03:17 PM »

I was told that NBC/Marist was a high-quality pollster, though.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #4 on: November 02, 2020, 01:04:17 PM »

Marist's previous AZ poll was the Biden +5 (50-45) from July? Or did they do one more recently?
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Bootes Void
iamaganster123
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« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2020, 01:04:26 PM »

Arizona seems to be really tight. PA is low Biden lead. Yikes we may not get a winner on election unless Marist is completely screwing up
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I Will Not Be Wrong
outofbox6
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« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2020, 01:04:44 PM »

Has Arizona been tightening?
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Ses
jk2020
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« Reply #7 on: November 02, 2020, 01:05:10 PM »

JUNK IT!!!
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jimmie
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« Reply #8 on: November 02, 2020, 01:05:34 PM »


A little but it was never going to vote to the left of the nation this year.

Biden will win it and Kelly will win by a solid margin.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #9 on: November 02, 2020, 01:05:39 PM »

If this is the best Marist can do, were in trouble...
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Orser67
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« Reply #10 on: November 02, 2020, 01:05:51 PM »

Given that Kelly's up by six points, I'm totally fine with this result
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #11 on: November 02, 2020, 01:06:40 PM »

Quote
But Trump is overperforming with non-white voters in Arizona and Pennsylvania.

Doubt.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #12 on: November 02, 2020, 01:06:47 PM »

AZ has a lot of retired 👮‍♀️ police officers 🚔 from all over the country.

But the students and Mexicans will bail Uncle Joe out.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #13 on: November 02, 2020, 01:07:07 PM »


We just got +6 Siena/NYT on Sunday.
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Buzz
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« Reply #14 on: November 02, 2020, 01:07:14 PM »

Wow!! Im feeling really good with these!  
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #15 on: November 02, 2020, 01:07:22 PM »

These polls make my stomach hurt.
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Alben Barkley
KYWildman
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« Reply #16 on: November 02, 2020, 01:07:32 PM »

If this is the best Marist can do, were in trouble...

NYT/Siena has Biden up 6 in both states though.
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soundchaser
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« Reply #17 on: November 02, 2020, 01:07:54 PM »


What hasn't made your stomach hurt today?
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #18 on: November 02, 2020, 01:09:00 PM »

Are we seriously going to fall for the Arizona trap again? Does anyone remember that Unbeatable Titan Strong Candidate Martha McSally was WINNING in the RCP average in 2018?Huh
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Buzz
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« Reply #19 on: November 02, 2020, 01:10:57 PM »

Are we seriously going to fall for the Arizona trap again? Does anyone remember that Unbeatable Titan Strong Candidate Martha McSally was WINNING in the RCP average in 2018?Huh
McSally isnt a good candidate, hence why shes running well behind Trump.
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MplsDem
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« Reply #20 on: November 02, 2020, 01:11:44 PM »

Marist's last PA poll was 53-44 Biden the first week of September, in case anyone was wondering.
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Panda Express
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« Reply #21 on: November 02, 2020, 01:11:51 PM »

AZ has a lot of retired 👮‍♀️ police officers 🚔 from all over the country.

But the students👨‍🎓 and Mexicans🌮 will bail Uncle Joe😎 out.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #22 on: November 02, 2020, 01:12:11 PM »

Are we seriously going to fall for the Arizona trap again? Does anyone remember that Unbeatable Titan Strong Candidate Martha McSally was WINNING in the RCP average in 2018?Huh
McSally isnt a good candidate, hence why shes running well behind Trump.

That's not the point, polls in Arizona always underestimate Democrats
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #23 on: November 02, 2020, 01:12:26 PM »

Are we seriously going to fall for the Arizona trap again? Does anyone remember that Unbeatable Titan Strong Candidate Martha McSally was WINNING in the RCP average in 2018?Huh

Yep. People seem to forget that Dems are underestimated in AZ, and given the Biden +2/3 average right now there, that's pretty damn good for him.
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Beida
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« Reply #24 on: November 02, 2020, 01:13:35 PM »

Are we seriously going to fall for the Arizona trap again? Does anyone remember that Unbeatable Titan Strong Candidate Martha McSally was WINNING in the RCP average in 2018?Huh

Yep. People seem to forget that Dems are underestimated in AZ, and given the Biden +2/3 average right now there, that's pretty damn good for him.

Also the fact that a strong majority of voters have already cast their ballot. Any late swings to Trump in AZ, which is dubious at best, are going to be muted by the fact that there just aren't that many more people who are going to vote who could've been persuaded.
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