IA-WHO 13/RABA Research: Greenfield +12
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  IA-WHO 13/RABA Research: Greenfield +12
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Author Topic: IA-WHO 13/RABA Research: Greenfield +12  (Read 2566 times)
Xing (reluctantly no longer on strike)
xingkerui
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« Reply #25 on: October 01, 2020, 04:40:15 PM »

Maybe if the stars align for Greenfield, she can get to 51%. There's absolutely no way she wins by anything like this margin, much as I'd like her to. The only IA poll that I tend to pay attention to is Selzer, and hopefully Selzer's next poll has Greenfield up by more than 3.
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gracile
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« Reply #26 on: October 01, 2020, 04:40:44 PM »

Obviously a massive outlier, but it further confirms Greenfield outperforming Biden is possible.
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Sestak
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« Reply #27 on: October 01, 2020, 04:41:04 PM »

Somewhat interesting - this is the second poll today that has a dem Senate challenger outperforming Biden by much more than expected.
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indietraveler
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« Reply #28 on: October 01, 2020, 04:42:43 PM »

lol no...but:

I'd rather be Greenfield than Ernst right now. This is a toss up, but Greenfield has pretty consistently outpolled Biden and some of that is due to crossover Trump voters. Biden will comfortably outperform Clinton even if the state doesn't flip.

This could be the next seat to flip after CO, AZ, NC, and ME.

At this point the house delegation likely remains the same here too.
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Stuart98
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« Reply #29 on: October 01, 2020, 04:54:52 PM »



No education weighting, yikes.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #30 on: October 01, 2020, 04:55:27 PM »


No education weighting, yikes.

That's not confirmed:

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Sestak
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« Reply #31 on: October 01, 2020, 04:58:09 PM »

The noteworthy point here isn't the topline, it's the fact that this same poll has Biden only +2.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #32 on: October 01, 2020, 05:02:08 PM »

The noteworthy point here isn't the topline, it's the fact that this same poll has Biden only +2.

This. So Greenfield is substantially over performing Biden and Ernst, underperforming Trump
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We Live in Black and White
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« Reply #33 on: October 01, 2020, 05:02:30 PM »

Guess crossover support isn't dead after all. Obviously Greenfield isn't up this substantially (God Jesus I wish), but I think the race is shifting dramatically in her direction.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #34 on: October 01, 2020, 05:33:45 PM »

Take half this margin and give it to Greenfield and Cunningham, the both win by 6, not 12, but except for IA 4, our Congressional districts are safe D
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TheLaRocca
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« Reply #35 on: October 01, 2020, 05:56:15 PM »

I'm sorry, I have to laugh at this poll. There's no way Greenfield could be so far ahead.

Agreed lol.

I expect if the national lead is Biden +6-8 that Iowa still votes +10 or more to the right of the nation. Most of the swings IMO are coming from GA/TX/CA/AZ. I expect Biden wins in MN/MI/WI/PA but not by as much as polls state.

I'll believe Iowa voting Biden or Ernest losing when I see it.
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MplsDem
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« Reply #36 on: October 01, 2020, 06:09:24 PM »

538 still has Ernst as a slight favorite, but Greenfield shot all the way up to 57c on predictit.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #37 on: October 01, 2020, 06:10:06 PM »

538 still has Ernst as a slight favorite, but Greenfield shot all the way up to 57c on predictit.

538 is being ridiculous with incumbents. Greenfield has literally led the last 7 out of 8 polls.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #38 on: October 01, 2020, 06:13:01 PM »

Ernst is done
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Cuckoo for Coco Chow!
Scott
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« Reply #39 on: October 01, 2020, 07:25:24 PM »

Outlier, but now I can actually see a reverse effect of the 2018 (and, to a lesser extent, 2016) rallying effect that boosted Senate Republicans, because now we're seeing a Democrat-appointed seat potentially being filled by a Republican-appointed judge.

Which, if true, would mean that Democrats finally give a sh!t about the courts!
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #40 on: October 01, 2020, 08:08:24 PM »

New Poll: Iowa Senator by RABA Research on 2020-09-26

Summary: D: 51%, R: 39%, U: 10%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #41 on: November 05, 2020, 07:17:03 AM »

I donít like bumping too many of these threads, but this pollster really should be shamed out of business.
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VAR
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« Reply #42 on: November 05, 2020, 08:01:32 AM »

Who the hell is this Ďpollsterí anyway? Never heard of them before.
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Astatine
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« Reply #43 on: November 08, 2020, 05:51:28 PM »

I donít like bumping too many of these threads, but this pollster really should be shamed out of business.
As most should actually.
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Bootes Void
iamaganster123
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« Reply #44 on: November 08, 2020, 10:54:37 PM »

this is embarassing.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #45 on: November 08, 2020, 10:58:13 PM »

Their final poll had her up by 6, for what little it's worth.
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