IA-WHO 13/RABA Research: Greenfield +12

[Xing]

Maybe if the stars align for Greenfield, she can get to 51%. There's absolutely no way she wins by anything like this margin, much as I'd like her to. The only IA poll that I tend to pay attention to is Selzer, and hopefully Selzer's next poll has Greenfield up by more than 3.

[Gracile]

Obviously a massive outlier, but it further confirms Greenfield outperforming Biden is possible.

[Sestak]

Somewhat interesting - this is the second poll today that has a dem Senate challenger outperforming Biden by much more than expected.

[indietraveler]

lol no...but:

I'd rather be Greenfield than Ernst right now. This is a toss up, but Greenfield has pretty consistently outpolled Biden and some of that is due to crossover Trump voters. Biden will comfortably outperform Clinton even if the state doesn't flip.

This could be the next seat to flip after CO, AZ, NC, and ME.

At this point the house delegation likely remains the same here too.

[Stuart98]

https://twitter.com/ellchicago/status/1311781088935673857

No education weighting, yikes.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/ellchicago/status/1311781088935673857
No education weighting, yikes.

That's not confirmed:

https://twitter.com/AsInMarx/status/1311786547474305027

[Sestak]

The noteworthy point here isn't the topline, it's the fact that this same poll has Biden only +2.

[wbrocks67]

The noteworthy point here isn't the topline, it's the fact that this same poll has Biden only +2.

This. So Greenfield is substantially over performing Biden and Ernst, underperforming Trump

[We Live in Black and White]

Guess crossover support isn't dead after all. Obviously Greenfield isn't up this substantially (God Jesus I wish), but I think the race is shifting dramatically in her direction.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Take half this margin and give it to Greenfield and Cunningham, the both win by 6, not 12, but except for IA 4, our Congressional districts are safe D

[TheLaRocca]

I'm sorry, I have to laugh at this poll. There's no way Greenfield could be so far ahead.

Agreed lol.

I expect if the national lead is Biden +6-8 that Iowa still votes +10 or more to the right of the nation. Most of the swings IMO are coming from GA/TX/CA/AZ. I expect Biden wins in MN/MI/WI/PA but not by as much as polls state.

I'll believe Iowa voting Biden or Ernest losing when I see it.

[MplsDem]

538 still has Ernst as a slight favorite, but Greenfield shot all the way up to 57c on predictit.

[wbrocks67]

538 still has Ernst as a slight favorite, but Greenfield shot all the way up to 57c on predictit.

538 is being ridiculous with incumbents. Greenfield has literally led the last 7 out of 8 polls.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ernst is done

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Outlier, but now I can actually see a reverse effect of the 2018 (and, to a lesser extent, 2016) rallying effect that boosted Senate Republicans, because now we're seeing a Democrat-appointed seat potentially being filled by a Republican-appointed judge.

Which, if true, would mean that Democrats finally give a sh!t about the courts!

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Iowa Senator by RABA Research on 2020-09-26

Summary: D: 51%, R: 39%, U: 10%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[MT Treasurer]

I don’t like bumping too many of these threads, but this pollster really should be shamed out of business.

[VAR]

Who the hell is this ‘pollster’ anyway? Never heard of them before.

[Astatine]

I don’t like bumping too many of these threads, but this pollster really should be shamed out of business.

As most should actually.

[Bootes Void]

this is embarassing.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Their final poll had her up by 6, for what little it's worth.