AZ - Data Orbital: Biden +1
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  AZ - Data Orbital: Biden +1
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Author Topic: AZ - Data Orbital: Biden +1  (Read 1451 times)
VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp
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« on: November 02, 2020, 09:52:35 AM »

Oct 28-30, 550 LV, MoE: 4.2%

Biden 46%
Trump 45%
Undecided/other 4%

SEN: 47-46 Kelly

https://www.dataorbital.com/the-blog/breaking-in-arizona-presidential-and-us-senate-races-shift-one-day-before-election-day
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Bootes Void
iamaganster123
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« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2020, 09:53:24 AM »

Lots of junk polls are coming out in full force. Kelly only leads by 1?LMAO
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Buzz
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« Reply #2 on: November 02, 2020, 09:56:26 AM »

92 mile car line bump
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: November 02, 2020, 09:58:19 AM »

Changes with Oct 16-18

Biden 46% (-1)
Trump 45% (+3)
Refused 5% (n/c)
Jorgensen 3% (n/c)
Other 1% (n/c)
Undecided 1% (-2)
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4 on: November 02, 2020, 10:01:46 AM »

Lots of junk polls are coming out in full force. Kelly only leads by 1?LMAO

It's an outlier but Data Orbital is an A/B firm and the Supreme Court nomination seems to have slightly shored up McSally. It's almost impressive how her race seemed to zoom to the back of the (winnable) pack for Republicans early on in the cycle and then tightened just quickly enough to avoid falling into safe D while other races fell by the wayside.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2020, 10:03:47 AM »

Throw it in the average with Siena's Biden +6.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2020, 10:04:26 AM »

4% movement in just 2 weeks, sounds normal!

Also, most high quality polls have Kelly up like 6/7.
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Reapsow
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« Reply #7 on: November 02, 2020, 10:06:06 AM »


Cars can't vote.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #8 on: November 02, 2020, 10:08:52 AM »

Interestingly, this poll also now has a "won't answer" option like Selzer. Could be early voters who don't want to tell pollsters who've they voted for.
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MR. ANTHONY DEVOLDER
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« Reply #9 on: November 02, 2020, 10:09:08 AM »

Seems like all these Sunbelt states are all converging on Biden +1.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #10 on: November 02, 2020, 10:16:49 AM »

Seems like all these Sunbelt states are all converging on Biden +1.

The average in Arizona is Biden +3
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #11 on: November 02, 2020, 10:18:45 AM »

Not reassuring.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #12 on: November 02, 2020, 10:20:11 AM »

WI-Sen 2016 vibes. Gonna have to move this one to lean D
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #13 on: November 02, 2020, 10:29:12 AM »

Jesus christ, the doomers are out in full force on this one.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #14 on: November 02, 2020, 10:31:38 AM »

They tend to have more conservative numbers than other pollsters. In 2018 they had at least one poll with McSally doing better than the average.
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Reapsow
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« Reply #15 on: November 02, 2020, 10:33:33 AM »

Jesus christ, the doomers are out in full force on this one.

Right? Some of these red avatars are more annoying than the blue ones--and that's saying a lot.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #16 on: November 02, 2020, 10:51:58 AM »

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MT Treasurer (Daines's Brain)
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« Reply #17 on: November 02, 2020, 10:54:24 AM »

Quote
AZ - Biden +1
IA - Biden +1

*sigh*, weíre gonna have to go through this once again, arenít we?
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #18 on: November 02, 2020, 10:55:45 AM »

Quote
AZ - Biden +1
IA - Biden +1

*sigh*, weíre gonna have to go through this once again, arenít we?

What is interesting is that there aren't any Republican posters freaking out about the Trump +1 average in Texas like it's a Biden +1 average in Iowa. 
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MT Treasurer (Daines's Brain)
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« Reply #19 on: November 02, 2020, 11:14:27 AM »

Quote
AZ - Biden +1
IA - Biden +1

*sigh*, weíre gonna have to go through this once again, arenít we?

What is interesting is that there aren't any Republican posters freaking out about the Trump +1 average in Texas like it's a Biden +1 average in Iowa. 

I think most Republicans (and pundits/observers, to be fair) are just in complete denial about TX and wonít believe it actually happened until itís colored blue/projected to be a flip on the maps of AP, NYT, etc. The fact that people are still unironically entertaining scenarios in which Biden wins IA but loses TX (CNN even has TX as Lean R and IA as a Tossup, although that has as much to do with pushing the horse race narrative as it does with willful ignorance) just shows you how surprised many will be by the magnitude of some of these shifts/trends that weíll witness tomorrow.

AZ just isnít in play in this environment and no amount of polling will convince me of the opposite. Kelly's and Biden's margins will tell us a lot about how easy a D hold it will be come 2022, though.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #20 on: November 02, 2020, 05:20:18 PM »

New Poll: Arizona President by DataOrbital on 2020-10-30

Summary: D: 46%, R: 45%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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