OH (Trafalgar): Trump +5
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  OH (Trafalgar): Trump +5		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: OH (Trafalgar): Trump +5  (Read 935 times)
Buzz
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« on: November 02, 2020, 12:33:00 AM »
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philly09
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« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2020, 12:34:24 AM »
Smell the desperation.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #2 on: November 02, 2020, 12:43:50 AM »
Ohio just 3 points to the right of Michigan?

That's not a good sign for Trump after de-crapifying this.
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Bootes Void
iamaganster123
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« Reply #3 on: November 02, 2020, 12:50:39 AM »
Even a 3 point shift away from Trump is bad
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jd7171
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« Reply #4 on: November 02, 2020, 01:12:17 AM »
« Edited: November 02, 2020, 01:26:38 AM by jd7171 »
Taking a look at Ohio and Michigan results since 1960 leads us with Ohio voting to the right of Michigan by about 7-8 points on average. IF in Trafalgar world Trump is up 2 in Michigan...he should be up by about 10 in Ohio. In other words TRASH.  Pretty bad result for Trump.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2020, 01:14:35 AM »
what kind of margin does Trump need in a Trafalgar poll for it to be actually good for him?
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Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
Joshua
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« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2020, 01:15:56 AM »
So Biden +1 in Ohio? Glorious!
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Jay 🏳️‍⚧️
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« Reply #7 on: November 02, 2020, 01:16:09 AM »
Quote from: Southern Governor Punxsutawney Phil on November 02, 2020, 01:14:35 AM
what kind of margin does Trump need in a Trafalgar poll for it to be actually good for him?

Trump by 5 to 7 usually translates to an actual lead
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #8 on: November 02, 2020, 01:16:51 AM »
So that's Biden +1 after adjusting.
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Buzz
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« Reply #9 on: November 02, 2020, 01:38:29 AM »
They underestimated Dewine by 8 in 2018, so y’all can chill out.
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Hammy
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« Reply #10 on: November 02, 2020, 01:41:39 AM »
Quote from: Buzz on November 02, 2020, 01:38:29 AM
They underestimated Dewine by 8 in 2018, so y’all can chill out.

Beat me to it by a few minutes. This was the one state where they managed to over-poll Dems chances (and by quite a bit.)
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #11 on: November 02, 2020, 02:18:09 AM »
Quote from: Hammy on November 02, 2020, 01:41:39 AM
Quote from: Buzz on November 02, 2020, 01:38:29 AM
They underestimated Dewine by 8 in 2018, so y’all can chill out.

Beat me to it by a few minutes. This was the one state where they managed to over-poll Dems chances (and by quite a bit.)
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TRKL1917
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« Reply #12 on: November 02, 2020, 02:56:50 AM »
This seems about right.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #13 on: November 02, 2020, 06:41:29 AM »
Oct 30-31
Changes with Oct 1-3

Trump 49% (+2)
Biden 44% (+1)
Jorgensen 2% (-1)
Someone else 2% (n/c)
Undecided 3% (-1)

Hawkins previously at 1%
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Crumpets
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« Reply #14 on: November 02, 2020, 06:43:50 AM »
They just put this out because they read the comment that all of their polls are within three points either way.

I'm also getting very suspicious of the sheer volume of Trafalgar polls. Do we have any reports of anyone who participated in these to know that they are actually conducting them? This one doesn't even list a sample size.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #15 on: November 02, 2020, 06:56:19 AM »
Quote from: Crumpets on November 02, 2020, 06:43:50 AM
They just put this out because they read the comment that all of their polls are within three points either way.

I'm also getting very suspicious of the sheer volume of Trafalgar polls. Do we have any reports of anyone who participated in these to know that they are actually conducting them? This one doesn't even list a sample size.

That's what I'm saying. We're getting sometimes two Trafalgar polls of the same state in a single day. Who is paying for these polls? How do they have the $$ to conduct all of these?
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #16 on: November 02, 2020, 08:03:59 AM »
1041 likely voters
MoE: 2.96%
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