PA-Monmouth: Biden PUMMELS Trump in Pennsylvania (+5) (user search)
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  PA-Monmouth: Biden PUMMELS Trump in Pennsylvania (+5) (search mode)
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Author Topic: PA-Monmouth: Biden PUMMELS Trump in Pennsylvania (+5)  (Read 5012 times)
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,771


« on: November 02, 2020, 06:50:36 AM »

BTW, has Monmouth ever explained what their high/low turnout models actually mean?
Is there a definitive number of votes cast above which they use the former and below the latter?

Higher/lower turnout than 2016 is about the extent to which the meanings of those models have been specified.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,771


« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2020, 06:54:23 AM »

Oct 28-Nov 1
502 registered/likely voters
MoE: 4.4%
Changes with Sep 30-Oct 4

Registered Voters
Biden 50% (-4)
Trump 45% (+3)
Jorgensen 1% (n/c)
No one 0% (but some voters) (n/c)
Other candidate 0% (but some voters) (n/c)
Undecided 4% (+2)

Likely voters - high Turnout
Biden 51% (-3)
Trump 44% (+1)

Likely voters - low Turnout
Biden 50% (-3)
Trump 45% (n/c)
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,771


« Reply #2 on: November 02, 2020, 09:09:16 AM »

The polls in 2016 were wrong by 2-3 points nationally and 4-6 in PA and other Midwestern States. Trump needs them to be 2 points more wrongly than in 2016, despite fewer undecided/other party voters. Unlikely, but not implausible. The world needs the miracle to happen  Devil

There are two factors making the leads here more sustainable besides polling firms have largely corrected their education weighting errors:
 - Being wrong about a 4-6% margin is much easier to do when there's a higher number of undecided voters, but Biden is already around 50%, so it's not there's nearly as much uncertainty
 - Loads of people have already voted meaning Trump actually needs there to be a disproportionately large late swing
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