PA-Monmouth: Biden PUMMELS Trump in Pennsylvania (+5) (user search)
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  PA-Monmouth: Biden PUMMELS Trump in Pennsylvania (+5) (search mode)
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Author Topic: PA-Monmouth: Biden PUMMELS Trump in Pennsylvania (+5)  (Read 5008 times)
wbrocks67
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« on: November 02, 2020, 06:02:45 AM »

It's 50-45 in RV and low turnout

51-44 in high turnout scenario

The 51-44 herding is real
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2020, 06:04:58 AM »

Honestly, I would just ignore the “swing counties” margin. It has swung wildly in their last 3 polls.

August: Trump 46, Biden 44
September: Biden 53, Trump 42
Now: Trump 49, Biden 45


This is also on par with Monmouth swinging wildly as well. They had Biden up double digits, then Biden +4, then Biden double digits, then Biden +5/7.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2 on: November 02, 2020, 06:55:14 AM »

It's interesting bc usually PA starts off well for Dems and then the number goes down and down as cities/suburbs report first and rurals come in later. This year will be different with Reps doing well out of the gate but Dems increasing. But Philly + the suburbs seem well equipped for counting (relatively) fast so the totals shouldn't be lopsided for too long
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #3 on: November 02, 2020, 08:56:48 AM »

The polls in 2016 were wrong by 2-3 points nationally and 4-6 in PA and other Midwestern States. Trump needs them to be 2 points more wrongly than in 2016, despite fewer undecided/other party voters. Unlikely, but not implausible. The world needs the miracle to happen  Devil

Polls also underestimated Bob Casey in PA in 2018 Smiley
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