PA-Monmouth: Biden PUMMELS Trump in Pennsylvania (+5)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 10:02:54 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  PA-Monmouth: Biden PUMMELS Trump in Pennsylvania (+5)
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: PA-Monmouth: Biden PUMMELS Trump in Pennsylvania (+5)  (Read 5005 times)
Panda Express
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,578


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: November 02, 2020, 06:00:35 AM »
« edited: November 02, 2020, 06:07:35 AM by Panda Express »

Biden: 50%
Trump: 45%


source

High-turnout model makes Biden's lead grow to 7 (51-44). Low-turnout keeps it at 5.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,743


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2020, 06:02:45 AM »

It's 50-45 in RV and low turnout

51-44 in high turnout scenario

The 51-44 herding is real
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,743


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: November 02, 2020, 06:04:58 AM »

Honestly, I would just ignore the “swing counties” margin. It has swung wildly in their last 3 polls.

August: Trump 46, Biden 44
September: Biden 53, Trump 42
Now: Trump 49, Biden 45


This is also on par with Monmouth swinging wildly as well. They had Biden up double digits, then Biden +4, then Biden double digits, then Biden +5/7.
Logged
Skye
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,579
Venezuela


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: November 02, 2020, 06:06:49 AM »

Trump is so done.
Logged
VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,755
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: November 02, 2020, 06:07:32 AM »

Logged
Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,361
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2020, 06:22:16 AM »

Interesting that even in a low-turnout scenario, Biden has been able to hold at or above 50% in three of the last four polls.  By the same token, Trump has been unable to poll above 47% in three of the last four polls.

Low Turnout Model:

November

Biden 50%
Trump 45%

Early October

Biden 53%
Trump 45%

Late August

Biden 48%
Trump 47%

Mid-July

Biden 51%
Trump 44%

---

In a high-turnout model, Biden has held at or above 49-percent in four of the last four polls.
Trump's high of 46% came in the late-August edition.  

In a normal-turnout model, Biden has also held at or above 49-percent in four of the last four polls. Trump has been unable to poll above 45% in this scenario. 
Logged
Buzz
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,186


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2020, 06:23:25 AM »

Close enough for a possible miracle
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,613
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: November 02, 2020, 06:25:35 AM »

BTW, has Monmouth ever explained what their high/low turnout models actually mean?
Is there a definitive number of votes cast above which they use the former and below the latter?
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,771


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: November 02, 2020, 06:50:36 AM »

BTW, has Monmouth ever explained what their high/low turnout models actually mean?
Is there a definitive number of votes cast above which they use the former and below the latter?

Higher/lower turnout than 2016 is about the extent to which the meanings of those models have been specified.
Logged
BlueSwan
blueswan
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,289
Denmark


Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -7.30

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: November 02, 2020, 06:52:33 AM »

Close enough for a possible miracle
Absolutely true. Especially with the aid of VBM shenanigans.

But still. This looks solid for Biden.
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,771


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: November 02, 2020, 06:54:23 AM »

Oct 28-Nov 1
502 registered/likely voters
MoE: 4.4%
Changes with Sep 30-Oct 4

Registered Voters
Biden 50% (-4)
Trump 45% (+3)
Jorgensen 1% (n/c)
No one 0% (but some voters) (n/c)
Other candidate 0% (but some voters) (n/c)
Undecided 4% (+2)

Likely voters - high Turnout
Biden 51% (-3)
Trump 44% (+1)

Likely voters - low Turnout
Biden 50% (-3)
Trump 45% (n/c)
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,743


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: November 02, 2020, 06:55:14 AM »

It's interesting bc usually PA starts off well for Dems and then the number goes down and down as cities/suburbs report first and rurals come in later. This year will be different with Reps doing well out of the gate but Dems increasing. But Philly + the suburbs seem well equipped for counting (relatively) fast so the totals shouldn't be lopsided for too long
Logged
ElectionObserver
Rookie
**
Posts: 63
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: November 02, 2020, 08:20:25 AM »

Nice poll for Biden.
All of the top pollsters in PA have given him an above MOE lead in their final polls.

It's interesting bc usually PA starts off well for Dems and then the number goes down and down as cities/suburbs report first and rurals come in later. This year will be different with Reps doing well out of the gate but Dems increasing. But Philly + the suburbs seem well equipped for counting (relatively) fast so the totals shouldn't be lopsided for too long

Are we sure about that?

Philadelphia/ its suburban counties and a lot of urban counties will start counting mail ballots at 7am on election day and not stop counting until they're done. Many rural counties won't even start counting mail ballots until the 4th.
Surely that will give a boost to Biden when the first results are reported.
Logged
MillennialModerate
MillennialMAModerate
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,006
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: November 02, 2020, 08:29:21 AM »

Just close enough to keep worries going. But just ahead enough to prevent total panic.

I’d give Biden better than 50/50 to win PA but not a ton beyond that

Monmouth is pretty reliable though so we’ll see
Logged
One Term Floridian
swamiG
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,042


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: 3.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: November 02, 2020, 08:33:40 AM »

Just close enough to keep worries going. But just ahead enough to prevent total panic.

I’d give Biden better than 50/50 to win PA but not a ton beyond that

Monmouth is pretty reliable though so we’ll see

Biden definitely has far better odds than 50/50. I’d say about 80/20 odds to win PA
Logged
Vaccinated Russian Bear
Russian Bear
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,108
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: November 02, 2020, 08:36:28 AM »

The polls in 2016 were wrong by 2-3 points nationally and 4-6 in PA and other Midwestern States. Trump needs them to be 2 points more wrongly than in 2016, despite fewer undecided/other party voters. Unlikely, but not implausible. The world needs the miracle to happen  Devil
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,743


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: November 02, 2020, 08:56:48 AM »

The polls in 2016 were wrong by 2-3 points nationally and 4-6 in PA and other Midwestern States. Trump needs them to be 2 points more wrongly than in 2016, despite fewer undecided/other party voters. Unlikely, but not implausible. The world needs the miracle to happen  Devil

Polls also underestimated Bob Casey in PA in 2018 Smiley
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,771


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: November 02, 2020, 09:09:16 AM »

The polls in 2016 were wrong by 2-3 points nationally and 4-6 in PA and other Midwestern States. Trump needs them to be 2 points more wrongly than in 2016, despite fewer undecided/other party voters. Unlikely, but not implausible. The world needs the miracle to happen  Devil

There are two factors making the leads here more sustainable besides polling firms have largely corrected their education weighting errors:
 - Being wrong about a 4-6% margin is much easier to do when there's a higher number of undecided voters, but Biden is already around 50%, so it's not there's nearly as much uncertainty
 - Loads of people have already voted meaning Trump actually needs there to be a disproportionately large late swing
Logged
YE
Moderator
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,640


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: November 02, 2020, 09:10:45 AM »

Just close enough to keep worries going. But just ahead enough to prevent total panic.

I’d give Biden better than 50/50 to win PA but not a ton beyond that

Monmouth is pretty reliable though so we’ll see

So there's a "not a ton beyond 50/50" chance that the polls are off by 5-7 points. By that logic, Biden has a "not a ton beyond 50/50" chance of winning Montana and Alaska. For someone who has shouted for months that GA isn't happening due to muh inelasticity despite very close polling there where Biden now seems to have the edge, this is hypocritical.
Logged
redjohn
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,679


Political Matrix
E: -3.35, S: -4.17

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: November 02, 2020, 09:12:36 AM »

The tipping-point state is likely D, and let's be honest, if Trump were up 7 here in the final poll (and consistently led by 5+) we would rate PA as safe R.
Logged
Sbane
sbane
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,303


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: November 02, 2020, 09:13:10 AM »

The polls in 2016 were wrong by 2-3 points nationally and 4-6 in PA and other Midwestern States. Trump needs them to be 2 points more wrongly than in 2016, despite fewer undecided/other party voters. Unlikely, but not implausible. The world needs the miracle to happen  Devil

Russia, China and other countries that want to harm this country certainly want four more years of Trump. That much is true. Get the hell out of here you russian troll.
Logged
Bootes Void
iamaganster123
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,682
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: November 02, 2020, 09:29:10 AM »

#herding
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,769
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: November 02, 2020, 09:31:03 AM »

Every state that voted D in 2018, are shifting pre 2014 levels when Debate flipping D. IA which was of the first states to flip R is flipping back to Tom Harkin levels of D success

Ernst is sitting in Tom Harkins seat whom defended Bill Clinton in Lewinsky
Logged
Vaccinated Russian Bear
Russian Bear
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,108
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: November 02, 2020, 09:42:48 AM »

The polls in 2016 were wrong by 2-3 points nationally and 4-6 in PA and other Midwestern States. Trump needs them to be 2 points more wrongly than in 2016, despite fewer undecided/other party voters. Unlikely, but not implausible. The world needs the miracle to happen  Devil

There are two factors making the leads here more sustainable besides polling firms have largely corrected their education weighting errors:
 - Being wrong about a 4-6% margin is much easier to do when there's a higher number of undecided voters, but Biden is already around 50%, so it's not there's nearly as much uncertainty
Yeah, it is what I said. But new errors might arise. Obviously, not necessary in Trump direction. Trump's narrow win, perhaps, is as likely as Biden 12+% landslide. Unlikely, but not implausible.

Quote
- Loads of people have already voted meaning Trump actually needs there to be a disproportionately large late swing
If polls are right. If polls are wrong as 2016 + 2%, Trump won't need any swings.
Logged
AGA
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,267
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -5.39

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: November 02, 2020, 01:02:17 PM »

Is it just me or do the crosstabs for whites with and without a college degree make it seem that Biden should be up by more than 7?
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.05 seconds with 14 queries.