SC - Quinnipiac: Trump+1
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  SC - Quinnipiac: Trump+1
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Author Topic: SC - Quinnipiac: Trump+1  (Read 5535 times)
Adam Griffin
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« Reply #75 on: September 30, 2020, 04:32:51 PM »



SC whites are about 7-8 points (margin-wise) more Democratic than GA whites. Democratic support collapsed in SC in '16 due to low black turnout (particularly in Southern rural areas; the same phenomenon we saw in MS; given the 2 states are a combination of two blackest-rural states in the country, not too surprising).

Only countervailing issue is that SC is generally becoming whiter (or at least less black), but the whites moving in are disproportionately college-educated, so at worst it is probably a wash.

I'm surprised SC whites are more Dem than Georgia ones given Georgia has a bigger urban (not just suburban) population and more transplants from the liberal Northeast or California rather than Midwestern retirees. Also isn't South Carolina one of the very few states that are getting whiter? Seems to be the reversal of the Great Migration hasn't affected SC as much?

This taps into my "latitude" and "coastal" theories, though they are not the root explanations for why. Basically, the further north whites are, the more Democratic they are. If you look at SC, it doesn't look any further north as a whole than GA, except that the middle half of the state is largely black and rural. You have large concentrations of whites in the northern-most portions of SC voting similarly/slightly above how whites in North GA do in terms of D vote share, and you also have a large concentration of whites along the coast ("more moderate weather climate means more moderate political climate").

I did mention in my OP how SC is getting whiter (or at least less black), but the flow of whites to the state are increasingly not as hostile to Ds given trends along educational lines (and the non-black, non-white flow has largely been insignificant until now).
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bilaps
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« Reply #76 on: September 30, 2020, 05:16:24 PM »

Quinnipiac is slowly becoming Democrats' Trafalgar poll. Yeah, Trump is losing but there is zero chance SC will be in like 5 pts.
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SPQR
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« Reply #77 on: September 30, 2020, 05:17:19 PM »

There's every chance this single poll is an outlier, but SC is definitely going from "possible sleeper state" to "lean R at best".
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #78 on: September 30, 2020, 05:19:05 PM »

So, we have two SC polls in the space of a week.. one showing Trump up 10 points (Yougov) and one showing the state tied (Quinnipiac).


Hmm..
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #79 on: September 30, 2020, 05:21:17 PM »

So, we have two SC polls in the space of a week.. one showing Trump up 10 points (Yougov) and one showing the state tied (Quinnipiac).


Hmm..

Even if you take the average, Trump +5, that is horrific for Trump
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Badger
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« Reply #80 on: September 30, 2020, 05:23:08 PM »

I'm guessing MoE makes this race look a few points closer that it actually is. More importantly, South Carolina is one of those states that still very much and here's to traditional elasticity. A good Democratic candidate hitting around 45% of the vote Statewide isn't hard. But getting to 50% or even a plurality is almost surely A Bridge Too Far
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #81 on: September 30, 2020, 05:24:50 PM »

So, we have two SC polls in the space of a week.. one showing Trump up 10 points (Yougov) and one showing the state tied (Quinnipiac).


Hmm..

Even if you take the average, Trump +5, that is horrific for Trump
Yep.. not disputing that.

Just find it rather comedic that taking into the account the margin of error for both polls, the state could be anywhere between +3 Biden and 13+ Trump.



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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #82 on: September 30, 2020, 05:41:45 PM »

Quinnipiac is slowly becoming Democrats' Trafalgar poll. Yeah, Trump is losing but there is zero chance SC will be in like 5 pts.

Would not be so sure. Biden losing by low single digits or even winning narrowly seem like very real possibilities now.

No one believed Texas would swing as hard as it did or be as close as it was in 2018 either.

It can never happen until it does...
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #83 on: September 30, 2020, 06:20:57 PM »
« Edited: September 30, 2020, 06:24:15 PM by Monstro Still Believes in a Blue Texas »

South Carolina is looking like if Cruz/O'Rourke occurred this year instead of 2018.

An absolute deluge of "I'll believe it when I see it" takes the likes of which we haven't seen since Obama competed in Indiana
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #84 on: September 30, 2020, 06:22:48 PM »

When Biden said "I will win South Carolina", he wasn't talking about the primary...
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Rand
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« Reply #85 on: September 30, 2020, 06:25:44 PM »

P A L M E T T O   J O E
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« Reply #86 on: September 30, 2020, 06:28:26 PM »

Seems more like an outlier to me. I still expect Trump to win South Carolina by around 10.

As for the senate race, I really see this as the 2020 version of Ted Cruz vs Beto. Graham will be expected to win by a decent margin but will end up only winning by like 2.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #87 on: September 30, 2020, 06:29:48 PM »

South Carolina:

The new "Show Me State"....

Imagine a scenario where SC votes to the left of MO...

Had anybody posed that question on Atlas (or elsewhere within the past 20+ Years), they would have been instantly drawn and quartered by the Atlas Community and eviscerated by Cable News Commentators and Political Operatives alike....

Here we are in 2020 and it appears there is at least a 50% chance that SC votes to the left of MO for US-PRES....

Blowing my mind....
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Stuart98
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« Reply #88 on: September 30, 2020, 06:48:57 PM »

South Carolina:

The new "Show Me State"....

Imagine a scenario where SC votes to the left of MO...

Had anybody posed that question on Atlas (or elsewhere within the past 20+ Years), they would have been instantly drawn and quartered by the Atlas Community and eviscerated by Cable News Commentators and Political Operatives alike....

Here we are in 2020 and it appears there is at least a 50% chance that SC votes to the left of MO for US-PRES....

Blowing my mind....

SC voted to the left of MO in 2016. Nearly did in 2012 too.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
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« Reply #89 on: September 30, 2020, 07:08:26 PM »
« Edited: September 30, 2020, 07:14:20 PM by Republicans for Biden »

Why would SC have a lightning fast D trend while NC stays static? SC is supposed to be a big hub for retirees, while NC is supposed to be bringing in white liberals to Charlotte and the Research Triangle.
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Sirius_
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« Reply #90 on: September 30, 2020, 08:10:56 PM »

Why would SC have a lightning fast D trend while NC stays static? SC is supposed to be a big hub for retirees, while NC is supposed to be bringing in white liberals to Charlotte and the Research Triangle.
1. Plenty of white liberals come to SC for jobs. It isn't the same as Florida.
2. SC was pretty much always just on the edge of being competitive. In previous environments the votes just weren't there for Democrats to win but its always been one step away from becoming a battleground state. The truth is that it just isn't that Republican like Alabama and Mississippi are. Whether or not 2020 ends up being that one step has yet to be seen, but I wouldn't exactly call SC becoming competitive a "lightning fast" trend.
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OBD
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« Reply #91 on: September 30, 2020, 08:12:46 PM »

South Carolina:

The new "Show Me State"....

Imagine a scenario where SC votes to the left of MO...

Had anybody posed that question on Atlas (or elsewhere within the past 20+ Years), they would have been instantly drawn and quartered by the Atlas Community and eviscerated by Cable News Commentators and Political Operatives alike....

Here we are in 2020 and it appears there is at least a 50% chance that SC votes to the left of MO for US-PRES....

Blowing my mind....

Not to burst your bubble mate but SC voted to the left of MO in 2016 (Trump+14 vs Trump+19). So that 50% chance is actually more like 80-90%.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #92 on: September 30, 2020, 08:38:29 PM »

South Carolina:

The new "Show Me State"....

Imagine a scenario where SC votes to the left of MO...

Had anybody posed that question on Atlas (or elsewhere within the past 20+ Years), they would have been instantly drawn and quartered by the Atlas Community and eviscerated by Cable News Commentators and Political Operatives alike....

Here we are in 2020 and it appears there is at least a 50% chance that SC votes to the left of MO for US-PRES....

Blowing my mind....

Not to burst your bubble mate but SC voted to the left of MO in 2016 (Trump+14 vs Trump+19). So that 50% chance is actually more like 80-90%.

I'll take it regardless of my bubble....

Many fond memories of SC back in the late '90s, including three nights in Beaufort visiting a friend/spouse and their young son with his Mom who had bought an old Confed Mansion, after his parents got divorced (Mom was an Anglo Yankee from Philly)....

Riding the "Dog" from Charlotte to Beaufort, was a lovely experience and my "Seat Buddy" was a lovely older Black Woman in her late '50s / early '60s. until she had to switch buses in Columbia...

Your numbers and statistics are legit as always...

Still SC looks like it has a better chance of voting for PRES Biden in 2020 than does MO.... (At least based upon recent polling numbers)....

I humbly stand down....

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VAR
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« Reply #93 on: November 06, 2020, 05:55:16 AM »

lol Alben Barkley
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Horus
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« Reply #94 on: November 06, 2020, 05:56:53 AM »

Quinnipiac needs to stop polling. Always said they were a left wing Trafalgar but I didn't actually expect them to do worse than Trafalgar.
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Buzz
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« Reply #95 on: November 06, 2020, 08:25:00 AM »

Straight to prison.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #96 on: November 06, 2020, 10:28:57 AM »

So Woodbury saying va was lean d was actually more accurate than Alben Barkley(not saying Woodbury was good but still lol)
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