NC-Data For Progress: Cunningham +5

[Calthrina950]

It's clear at this point that Cunningham's sexting scandal did little to change the trajectory of this race, although the margin has tightened compared to where it was a few months ago (and that was inevitable, and would have occurred even without the scandal). It's not a stretch to say that Tillis might be in a worse position than Susan Collins at this point, given the uncertainties that RCV introduces to the voting in Maine and the fact that Gideon has been running much further behind Biden than Cunningham, who is running slightly ahead of him.

[Calthrina950]

If this is the final margin, holding the other seat will be an uphill battle for Republicans in 2022 even in a Republican-leaning year. Unless polling is off substantially (possible), this state appears to have zoomed leftward way more than I would have expected.

This does not necessarily mean the state has zoomed leftward considering it comes with a presidential race currently sitting (according to this pollster) at 50-48 in a wave environment. Maybe Democrats are just going to be afforded more downballot support in the longterm because of ancestral Trump Democrats (although we've seen how that story tends to go in other states), but the most probable explanation is just that Tillis is a bad candidate and shouldn't run in 2022.

I agree with this. Tillis won by slightly less than 1.6 percentage points in 2014, which was a Republican wave year, and North Carolina has been a closely divided swing state for years. It's not surprising that in this kind of national environment, it would lean towards the Democrats.

[Calthrina950]

I agree with this. Tillis won by slightly less than 1.6 percentage points in 2014, which was a Republican wave year, and North Carolina has been a closely divided swing state for years. It's not surprising that in this kind of national environment, it would lean towards the Democrats.

Or -- alternative take: Tillis won by slightly less than 1.6 percentage points in 2014 because the state has zoomed leftward.

This does make Deborah Ross' showing look really pathetic, though.

You could be right. But I still think that the national environment, more than anything else, is influencing the trajectory and the eventual outcome of this race. Cunningham isn't the strongest candidate Democrats could have run here, and is benefitting from the same external factors that are driving the Biden lead here. To say nothing of the fact that Tillis has never been popular and has always had weaknesses with the Republican base.