Civiqs- Iowa (B+1), Wisconsin (B+4), Ohio (T+1)
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  Civiqs- Iowa (B+1), Wisconsin (B+4), Ohio (T+1)
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Author Topic: Civiqs- Iowa (B+1), Wisconsin (B+4), Ohio (T+1)  (Read 4862 times)
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #25 on: November 01, 2020, 07:53:00 PM »

My post appears to have vanished, so here are the details again:

Oct 29-Nov 1

Iowa
853 likely voters
MoE: 3.7%
Changes with Oct 3-6 Civiqs/Daily Kos poll

Biden 49 (+1)
Trump 48 (+1)
Someone else 3 (-1)
Not sure 0 (-1)

Wisconsin
789 likely voters
MoE: 3.6%
Changes with Oct 8-11 Rust Belt Rising (D) poll

Biden 51 (-2)
Trump 47 (+2)
Someone else 1 (-1)
Not sure 0 (-1)

Ohio
1136 likely voters
MoE: 3%
Changes with Oct 8-11 Rust Belt Rising (D) poll

Trump 49 (-1)
Biden 48 (+1)
Someone else 1 (-1)
Not sure 1 (N/c)
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republican1993
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« Reply #26 on: November 01, 2020, 07:53:40 PM »

not sure how it looks ugly after one poll? one thread people are excited and the next it's over lol.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
PittsburghSteel
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« Reply #27 on: November 01, 2020, 07:55:50 PM »

not sure how it looks ugly after one poll? one thread people are excited and the next it's over lol.

Welcome to Atlas.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #28 on: November 01, 2020, 07:58:57 PM »

Hope this means they're doing another official round of final state polls tomorrow too
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #29 on: November 01, 2020, 07:59:35 PM »

Hang on, Sleepy Joe!
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #30 on: November 01, 2020, 08:01:17 PM »

Hope this means they're doing another official round of final state polls tomorrow too

It seems not:
Quote
This is it, last round of 2020 public state polling.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #31 on: November 01, 2020, 08:03:15 PM »

Hope this means they're doing another official round of final state polls tomorrow too

It seems not:
Quote
This is it, last round of 2020 public state polling.

Ugh. Do they mean this is the start of the last round or this is literally the last round?
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #32 on: November 01, 2020, 08:12:18 PM »

Ohio's suburbs do have some serious swing potential left for Dems.  I don't know if it will be enough, but this was an important dog that didn't bark in 2016.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #33 on: November 01, 2020, 08:15:03 PM »

If these #s are correct, Selzer is going to lose that gold standard title hard. And it's even weirder b/c these are the types of margins they were showing for their other polls before this ridiculous new one.

No, they're not.

Even a hypothetically perfect pollster would have an outlier occasionally.  This is inherent in the nature of sampling, and it is inescapable.  Some pollsters will hold back their outliers because they don't want to look like they don't know what they're doing.  A good pollster will go ahead and release it, because their reputation is strong enough that they don't need to play those games.  The Selzer poll and the ABC/WaPo poll with Biden+17 in Wisconsin are both in that situation.  Both pollsters are very good, and neither pollster's reputation will (or at least should) suffer if those polls turn out to be the outliers they look like now.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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« Reply #34 on: November 01, 2020, 08:21:16 PM »

If these #s are correct, Selzer is going to lose that gold standard title hard. And it's even weirder b/c these are the types of margins they were showing for their other polls before this ridiculous new one.

No, they're not.

Even a hypothetically perfect pollster would have an outlier occasionally.  This is inherent in the nature of sampling, and it is inescapable.  Some pollsters will hold back their outliers because they don't want to look like they don't know what they're doing.  A good pollster will go ahead and release it, because their reputation is strong enough that they don't need to play those games.  The Selzer poll and the ABC/WaPo poll with Biden+17 in Wisconsin are both in that situation.  Both pollsters are very good, and neither pollster's reputation will (or at least should) suffer if those polls turn out to be the outliers they look like now.

I agree that good pollsters should always release outliers. Having said that, I would be perfectly fine with it losing the gold standard title if they're off because I don't believe in the concept of gold standard polling at all.

"Gold standard" implies accuracy that just isn't really possible in polling by its nature. There's good and bad pollsters (and Selzer having one bad year if they do miss substantially wouldn't make me take away their "good pollster" reputation) , but no real "gold standard".
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #35 on: November 01, 2020, 08:21:35 PM »

If these #s are correct, Selzer is going to lose that gold standard title hard. And it's even weirder b/c these are the types of margins they were showing for their other polls before this ridiculous new one.

No, they're not.

Even a hypothetically perfect pollster would have an outlier occasionally.  This is inherent in the nature of sampling, and it is inescapable.  Some pollsters will hold back their outliers because they don't want to look like they don't know what they're doing.  A good pollster will go ahead and release it, because their reputation is strong enough that they don't need to play those games.  The Selzer poll and the ABC/WaPo poll with Biden+17 in Wisconsin are both in that situation.  Both pollsters are very good, and neither pollster's reputation will (or at least should) suffer if those polls turn out to be the outliers they look like now.

Sure but this will be the third Iowa election in a row they've gotten wrong at this point. They blew the 2020 caucus and the 2018 governor race.
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swf541
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« Reply #36 on: November 01, 2020, 08:31:53 PM »

If these #s are correct, Selzer is going to lose that gold standard title hard. And it's even weirder b/c these are the types of margins they were showing for their other polls before this ridiculous new one.

No, they're not.

Even a hypothetically perfect pollster would have an outlier occasionally.  This is inherent in the nature of sampling, and it is inescapable.  Some pollsters will hold back their outliers because they don't want to look like they don't know what they're doing.  A good pollster will go ahead and release it, because their reputation is strong enough that they don't need to play those games.  The Selzer poll and the ABC/WaPo poll with Biden+17 in Wisconsin are both in that situation.  Both pollsters are very good, and neither pollster's reputation will (or at least should) suffer if those polls turn out to be the outliers they look like now.

It's not just this that would hurt Selzer its a combination of events that have happened over the last several years, this would be the cherry on top that would likely drag them down quite a bit
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Figueira
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« Reply #37 on: November 01, 2020, 08:52:39 PM »

Wow, I thought Wisconsin was 24 points to the left of Iowa, but it turns out it's only 3 points to the left of Iowa!
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #38 on: November 15, 2020, 07:23:20 AM »

These polls were kind of scary at the time... and they still ended up being way too optimistic for Biden!

Just glad the old bastard still pulled it out.
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VAR
VARepublican
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« Reply #39 on: November 15, 2020, 07:40:33 AM »

'Elastic as hell' Purple heart Blue heart Yellow heart Green heart Flawless Beautiful Iowa once again ended up to the right of 'inelastic' 'polarized' Ohio.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #40 on: November 15, 2020, 11:34:15 AM »

The D's will never win a 413 map sweeping everything AZ, FL, GA, IA, OH, NC, and TX along with 278 and especially not in 6.6% unemployment.  Not in 2024/2028 either
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