Moldova presidential election - 1st November 2019

[RGM2609]

Thought this could use a thread of its own. Anyway, the results of the first round, with 97.7% of the precints reporting:

Igor Dodon (PSRM) - 34.5%
Maia Sandu (PAS) - 33.9%
Renato Usatii (PN) - 16.9%
Violeta Ivanov (PPS) - 6.8%
Andrei Nastase (PPDA) - 3.2%
Others - 4.6%

It seems like the incumbent President will face the pro-EU former Prime Minister in a rematch in the second round.

[Lord Halifax]

Thought this could use a thread of its own. Anyway, the results of the first round, with 97.7% of the precints reporting:

Igor Dodon (PSRM) - 34.5%
Maia Sandu (PAS) - 33.9%
Renato Usatii (PN) - 16.9%
Violeta Ivanov (PPS) - 6.8%
Andrei Nastase (PPDA) - 3.2%
Others - 4.6%

It seems like the incumbent President will face the pro-EU former Prime Minister in a rematch in the second round.

Both Usati and Ivanov are "Moldovenist" and pro-Russian, so it looks like Dodon should win the run-off comfortably. Sandu and Nastase only getting 37.1% combined is very disappointing.

[Astatine]

Dodon and Sandu already faced each other in a runoff in 2016:

First round in 2016:
Dodon 48.0 %
Sandu 38.7 %

Second round:
Dodon 52.1 %
Sandu 47.9 %

Generally spoken, Dodon is pro-Russian, socially conservative and economically left, while Sandu is pro-European, socially moderate(ish?) and economically right.

PUN is a center-right party advocating the union of Romania and Moldova and being pro-Russian, it will be essential how their voters will break in the second round, but most will probably vote for Dodon, but if their turnout drops, Sandu still has a chance. PS is pro-Russian and closer to Dodon, PPDA pro-European and closer to Sandu.

From my guts, I'd say the runoff is Lean/Likely Dodon, but could still see a Sandu victory. There has been hardly any polling in recent months and the result of the last poll from August that showed Dodon leading Sandu by 12 in a runoff scenario was pretty off for the first round.

[Estrella]

I realize this is a very broad question, but what's the general situation in Moldova? I always thought of it as, frankly, the worst post-Soviet shxthole in Europe (Belarus at least has a semi-fuctioning economy). Is it like Romania, in that things like economy and corruption are improving, albeit from a much lower base, or is it just stagnating / getting worse?

[Former President tack50]

Ah yes, Moldavia, where the leading party is an unironic nazbol party

[Estrella]

Ah yes, Moldavia, where the leading party is an unironic nazbol party

Northeastern Romania be like:



Though you could say the same for Romanian PSD, so I guess you're still right

Of course, Moldova's (post-)Soviet communist party transformed into something called the Democratic Agrarian Party and the new Party of Communists was just a bunch of forgettable Leonid Brezhneyebrows nostalgics. They then took power in the mid-90s on a wave of nostalgia when the economy went down the drain but by the end of their rule they were so not-Communist that the Economist called them "centre-right". Fxcking hysterical. Like, it's not so strange to imagine them transforming into a crazy right-wing nationalist party of power like the CCP, but centre-right?

[RGM2609]

99.8% of the precincts reporting, Maia Sandu has taken a substantial lead over Dodon (the last precincts to report are always the ones abroad from what I can gather) -

Maia Sandu - 36.1%
Igor Dodon - 32.7%
Renato Usatii - 16.9%
Violeta Ivanov - 6.5%
Andrei Nastase - 3.3%
Others - 4.6%

[RGM2609]

I would not bet on Dodon right now, contrary to what most people seem to think. His showing in the first round is frankly embarrassing and it shows that many people in the country are not that happy with him (even pro-Russians!) and they may believe the accusations that he is either an oligarch or a very incompetent President. When you factor in that many on the right-wing are claiming that people from Transnistria were brought in to vote for Dodon, it gets even worse. And the turnout can only rise in the second round (an advantage for Sandu, old people are more disciplined voters). I think this is lean Sandu right now.

[RGM2609]

99.8% of the precincts reporting, Maia Sandu has taken a substantial lead over Dodon (the last precincts to report are always the ones abroad from what I can gather) -

Maia Sandu - 36.1%
Igor Dodon - 32.7%
Renato Usatii - 16.9%
Violeta Ivanov - 6.5%
Andrei Nastase - 3.3%
Others - 4.6%

Everything is in and Sandu has grown to 36.2 against Dodon with 32.6. Horrible result for the incumbent President tbh.

[RGM2609]

I realize this is a very broad question, but what's the general situation in Moldova? I always thought of it as, frankly, the worst post-Soviet shxthole in Europe (Belarus at least has a semi-fuctioning economy). Is it like Romania, in that things like economy and corruption are improving, albeit from a much lower base, or is it just stagnating / getting worse?

Complicated topic, but I do not think it is improving. The main problem is just how massive the emigration has been, basically taking most highly competent individuals that could improve the economy out of the country, leaving behind the less qualified ones. However, the emigration has also been so massive that the people who left send just enough money back into the country to keep it afloat and prevent some sort of a revolution against the oligarchic establishment. Many people are angry about it (as seen with the current vote) however politicians use geopolitical and cultural divides to separate their opposition. Not an expert on Moldova or economics, this is just my view on it.

[RGM2609]

Ah yes, Moldavia, where the leading party is an unironic nazbol party

Northeastern Romania be like:



Though you could say the same for Romanian PSD, so I guess you're still right

Of course, Moldova's (post-)Soviet communist party transformed into something called the Democratic Agrarian Party and the new Party of Communists was just a bunch of forgettable Leonid Brezhneyebrows nostalgics. They then took power in the mid-90s on a wave of nostalgia when the economy went down the drain but by the end of their rule they were so not-Communist that the Economist called them "centre-right". Fxcking hysterical. Like, it's not so strange to imagine them transforming into a crazy right-wing nationalist party of power like the CCP, but centre-right?

Well their leader was actually pretty charismatic when he was not borderline senile, so that played a part in their rise, beyond their name. In 2001 they really were neo-communists but after a few years of governing they decided to abandon any sort of revolution and focus on staying in power. By 2009 they were a status-quo party (look how great things are, we should not change a thing so we get to stay in power!) and were not willing to advocate for any change. (Sorry for how many separate posts I have written)

[CumbrianLefty]

Dodon and Sandu already faced each other in a runoff in 2016:

First round in 2016:
Dodon 48.0 %
Sandu 38.7 %

Second round:
Dodon 52.1 %
Sandu 47.9 %

Generally spoken, Dodon is pro-Russian, socially conservative and economically left, while Sandu is pro-European, socially moderate(ish?) and economically right.

PUN is a center-right party advocating the union of Romania and Moldova

So that is still a significant thing?

[RGM2609]

Dodon and Sandu already faced each other in a runoff in 2016:

First round in 2016:
Dodon 48.0 %
Sandu 38.7 %

Second round:
Dodon 52.1 %
Sandu 47.9 %

Generally spoken, Dodon is pro-Russian, socially conservative and economically left, while Sandu is pro-European, socially moderate(ish?) and economically right.

PUN is a center-right party advocating the union of Romania and Moldova

So that is still a significant thing?

It certainly is, and it is on the rise actually, as more and more Pro-Europeans realize that Moldova joining the EU on its own is a pipe dream. There are a lot of unionist minor parties but they do not get a lot of votes, as unionists prefer to vote with the other Pro-EU voters for parties like PAS. Also I am not sure if the post above refers to PUN, a minor unionist party, or PN, the party of Usatii which is certainly not unionist.

[Estrella]

Kinda off topic, but I just stumpled upon this and the scale of emigration from the country has honestly shocked me. I decided to look up more about just how bad it really is and... Jesus:

The Information and Security Service of the Republic of Moldova has estimated that 1,200,000 to two million Moldovan citizens (almost 45% of a population of some 3.6 million) are working abroad, most illegally.

[RGM2609]

Kinda off topic, but I just stumpled upon this and the scale of emigration from the country has honestly shocked me. I decided to look up more about just how bad it really is and... Jesus:

The Information and Security Service of the Republic of Moldova has estimated that 1,200,000 to two million Moldovan citizens (almost 45% of a population of some 3.6 million) are working abroad, most illegally.

I know. The country has been slowly dying for years. Almost all human resources left and those without many perspectives stay behind.

[CumbrianLefty]

I presume that at least some return "home" after a period of time?

[RGM2609]

I presume that at least some return "home" after a period of time?

I do not think they do, at least not in any significant number, however the pandemic might have changed that and made some of them come back.

[Karpatsky]

Usatii essentially endorsed Sandu. Sandu now has candidates representing >60% of the electorate more or less in her camp. Increasingly hard to see how Dodon pulls this off without intense fraud.

[bigic]

Yes, this is probably a significant boost for Sandu. But, voters aren't controlled by politicians they support, and some of Usatii's voters might view Dodon as better/less bad than Sandu.

[crals]

Why is Moldova seemingly so anti-Western? Is it because the young pro-West people have all left the country and the older folk left feel Soviet nostalgia?

[RGM2609]

Why is Moldova seemingly so anti-Western? Is it because the young pro-West people have all left the country and the older folk left feel Soviet nostalgia?

I wouldn't say anti-Western necessarily, more like evenly split on geopolitics. Migration is a significant factor in this, as well as decades of Soviet propaganda that regardless of a person's beliefs it has left an impact on the society as a whole, cultural divides between Romanian-speaking and Russian-speaking citizens as well as a general sense of disappointment with the pro-EU politicians, as all the governments led by them were massive oligarchic failures (at least Voronin and Dodon boosted welfare).

[crals]

Why is Moldova seemingly so anti-Western? Is it because the young pro-West people have all left the country and the older folk left feel Soviet nostalgia?

I wouldn't say anti-Western necessarily, more like evenly split on geopolitics. Migration is a significant factor in this, as well as decades of Soviet propaganda that regardless of a person's beliefs it has left an impact on the society as a whole, cultural divides between Romanian-speaking and Russian-speaking citizens as well as a general sense of disappointment with the pro-EU politicians, as all the governments led by them were massive oligarchic failures (at least Voronin and Dodon boosted welfare).

Makes sense, thank you.

[CumbrianLefty]

Usatii essentially endorsed Sandu. Sandu now has candidates representing >60% of the electorate more or less in her camp. Increasingly hard to see how Dodon pulls this off without intense fraud.

Is that a serious possibility?

[Karpatsky]

Usatii essentially endorsed Sandu. Sandu now has candidates representing >60% of the electorate more or less in her camp. Increasingly hard to see how Dodon pulls this off without intense fraud.

Is that a serious possibility?

There have been some substantive evidence of falsified overseas registrations in Russia, as well as somewhat-less-grounded accusations of preparations for voter busing/ballot stuffing from Transdniestria. I'll see about finding an English-language source later in the day.

[RGM2609]

Today is the day of the second round! And the turnout appears to be high, already more people have voted than in the first round with 4 hours still left until poll closings. Not a good sign for Dodon.

Also a weird incident happened with buses of people brought from Transnistria illegaly to vote for Dodon were blocked by activists from continuing on with their road.