TX-Emerson: TIE

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/emersonpolling/status/1323022504827457548?s=21

[President Johnson]

Bring this home! LONE STAR JOE!

My head still says a narrow Trump win, but gut feeling says Joe might actually eke this one out with these poll numbers and turnout going off the charts.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

With leaners:

Trump +1
Trump 50%
Biden 49%
Someone else 2%

[Hammy]

E-Mturk-erson

[Bootes Void]

Biden winning Texas would be a nice middle finger to these Magats harassing his bus. It will be funny to watch them cry when Biden wins Texas

[Ljube]

Trump may end up winning Texas by 1 or under 1.

This is going to be grand. So many states may finish with a margin under 1.

[DrScholl]

Usually I'm not one for saying that every event is going to effect the election, but that bus stunt could put Biden over the top in Texas.

[Kuumo]

Really starting to look like NC, GA, FL, and even TX are coming down to the wire. I hope Biden can pull through and win at least one of them instead of losing all four by less than 1 point.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

So the two pollsters that got Texas closest in the 2018 Senate race (Emerson and PPP) have this race as tied and Biden +2, respectively.

And the gut check question is this: Are they seeing this state correctly again? Or did they just get lucky last time?

[Angasboy15]

Trump may end up winning Texas by 1 or under 1.

This is going to be grand. So many states may finish with a margin under 1.

I'm afraid if you're banking on your candidate to carry a multitude of states by less than one point, the odds aren't in your favour.

[Hammy]

So the two pollsters that got Texas closest in the 2018 Senate race (Emerson and PPP) have this race as tied and Biden +2, respectively.

And the gut check question is this: Are they seeing this state correctly again? Or did they just get lucky last time?

Emerson uses MTurk whose data collection is questionable, and from what I was reading about respondents possibly being fraudulent (as this is a virtual online collection method), this raises the question that this could mean some of the people in the polls don't live in the states they're answering them for.

All of their polls are in question, regardless of the state or who they show winning.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Memerson has Trump winning white voters in TX by only 63% to 36%.

And, although they have Biden winning Hispanic voters by 64-33, they only have Hispanics at 16% of the electorate, and have whites at 66% of the electorate.

Whites are not gonna be 66% of the electorate...

They also have Biden only winning the African American vote 83-13.

In other words, this is yet another TX poll that, if its white voter crosstab were accurate, points to a Biden win in Texas, despite the poll's topline not having Biden ahead.

Texas is looking more and more like it is tilt D to me rather than tossup or tilt R.

[ugabug]

Biden winning Texas would be a nice middle finger to these Magats harassing his bus. It will be funny to watch them cry when Biden wins Texas

And Trump being the first Republican President in 44 years to lose Texas would be a nice way to end his Presidency.

[tagimaucia]

So the two pollsters that got Texas closest in the 2018 Senate race (Emerson and PPP) have this race as tied and Biden +2, respectively.

And the gut check question is this: Are they seeing this state correctly again? Or did they just get lucky last time?

I don't know, but for what its worth, Civiqs also nailed the 2018 senate race (they had Cruz + 3) and they had this race tied a few weeks ago.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is gonna win TX

[RBH]

The Emerson poll race crosstabs

White: 63-36 Trump
Hispanic: 64-33 Biden
Black: 83-13 Biden

Asian/Other had a combined sample size of 24

[Rand]

Biden is gonna win TX

He has spoken.

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Texas President by Emerson College on 2020-10-31

Summary: D: 49%, R: 49%, U: 1%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Progressive Pessimist]

I kind of hope that Emerson has a rebirth as a competent pollster because their recent results are pretty good and seem to line up with with the conventional wisdom.

[Hope For A New Era]

Really starting to look like NC, GA, FL, and even TX are coming down to the wire. I hope Biden can pull through and win at least one of them instead of losing all four by less than 1 point.

I believe in the turnout surges! I believe!

[Kuumo]

Really starting to look like NC, GA, FL, and even TX are coming down to the wire. I hope Biden can pull through and win at least one of them instead of losing all four by less than 1 point.

I believe in the turnout surges! I believe!

[ExSky]

Really starting to look like NC, GA, FL, and even TX are coming down to the wire. I hope Biden can pull through and win at least one of them instead of losing all four by less than 1 point.

It looks like Tx is coming down to the wire. Biden has a slight lead in the rest of those places and momentum’s on his side

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm inclined more and more to place it as a Biden state as of late. But I still would put it as a likely Trump win, albeit by a verrrry narrow margin. I hope I'm wrong.