FL-27 - 1892 Polling (R): Salazar +3
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  FL-27 - 1892 Polling (R): Salazar +3		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: FL-27 - 1892 Polling (R): Salazar +3  (Read 1266 times)
VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp
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« on: September 10, 2020, 06:22:45 AM »
« edited: September 10, 2020, 10:08:33 AM by VARepublican »
Sep 2-6, 400 LV, MoE: 4.9%

Salazar (R) 46%
Shalala (D, inc.) 43%

https://mariaelvirasalazar.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/FL27_PollMemo_d1_090820.pdf
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1 on: September 10, 2020, 06:36:42 AM »
Interesting, if Biden was underperforming with Hispanics, you'd expect us to get some prez toplines here too...
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #2 on: September 10, 2020, 08:52:15 AM »
« Edited: September 10, 2020, 10:29:02 AM by brucejoel99 »
400 people, a 4.9% MoE, & decimals!? It's still a horse-race, but definitely taking this with a grain of salt.

The fact they don't share presidential toplines while also touting that poll showing Trump ahead with Hispanics in Dade is interesting. I highly doubt you'll see much ticket splitting in FL-27.

In 2018, Shalala won 51.8-45.8, & in this poll, Salazar's at 45.5, so essentially where she was in 2018. I think at the end of the day, we're just gonna get a repeat of 2018: Shalala winning again by ~6 or so points.
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Woody
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« Reply #3 on: September 10, 2020, 09:19:41 AM »
Toss up.
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kph14
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« Reply #4 on: September 10, 2020, 09:58:42 AM »

What a joke. I still remember Salazar's internals that showed her up 9 points in 2018. Republicans likely voter universes tend to be fantasies when it comes to electorate with a high latino share.
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VAR
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« Reply #5 on: September 10, 2020, 10:00:28 AM »
Quote from: kph14 on September 10, 2020, 09:58:42 AM

What a joke. I still remember Salazar's internals that showed her up 9 points in 2018. Republicans likely voter universes tend to be fantasies when it comes to electorate with a high latino share.

McLaughlin? Not surprising then.
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Pollster
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« Reply #6 on: September 10, 2020, 10:07:53 AM »
Stop with the decimals.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #7 on: September 10, 2020, 11:00:30 AM »

What is wrong with them?
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ajc0918
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« Reply #8 on: September 10, 2020, 11:48:15 AM »
Playing the same games as 2018 I see. Salazar will lose.

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/278566-salazar-internal-poll-head
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Pollster
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« Reply #9 on: September 10, 2020, 11:53:52 AM »

Crossposting from another thread: decimals imply a level of accuracy that polling is statistically not able to provide until you reach a sample size of 20,000 or more.
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Xing
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« Reply #10 on: September 10, 2020, 11:57:07 AM »
ayy lmao
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #11 on: September 11, 2020, 01:29:35 AM »
Bogus
Likely D
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Badger
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« Reply #12 on: September 14, 2020, 12:59:49 PM »
Nah. Likely T.

However, I would really like to see Donna Shalala retire and someone from the local Cuban democratic bench run during a Biden midterm.
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VAR
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« Reply #13 on: November 04, 2020, 06:31:46 AM »

Both Shalala and DMP lost.  Smiley
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Woody
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« Reply #14 on: November 04, 2020, 06:48:32 AM »
Quote from: kph14 on September 10, 2020, 09:58:42 AM

What a joke. I still remember Salazar's internals that showed her up 9 points in 2018. Republicans likely voter universes tend to be fantasies when it comes to electorate with a high latino share.
Told you.
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