ME-Emerson: Gideon +6
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September 20, 2021, 05:59:58 AM

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  ME-Emerson: Gideon +6
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Author Topic: ME-Emerson: Gideon +6  (Read 1339 times)
Terry the Fat Shark
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« on: November 01, 2020, 04:18:46 PM »



"Among Savage and Linn supporters, 61% choose Gideon as their second choice while just 14% have Collins as their second choice, the rest list no one or someone else as their second choice candidate."
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DrScholl
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« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2020, 04:20:38 PM »

This probably isn't going to be that close. Collins really did herself in.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2020, 04:22:37 PM »

RCV numbers?
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2020, 04:23:48 PM »

If Savage is at 5% Collins really is done
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2020, 04:27:01 PM »

I know itís Emeson, but this was the ďcore 4Ē race I was most nervous about.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #5 on: November 01, 2020, 04:29:17 PM »

This makes me feel better. I'm most worried about North Carolina and Michigan now.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #6 on: November 01, 2020, 04:31:59 PM »

This makes me feel better. I'm most worried about North Carolina and Michigan now.

There is no real reason to worry about Michigan unless you just like to give yourself ulcers
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President Johnson
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« Reply #7 on: November 01, 2020, 04:33:03 PM »

A sign of relief. I constantly shift between this one and North Carolina on which is the most likely 50th seat.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #8 on: November 01, 2020, 04:33:20 PM »

This makes me feel better. I'm most worried about North Carolina and Michigan now.

There is no real reason to worry about Michigan unless you just like to give yourself ulcers

You're probably right. Straight-ticket voting there should help Peters as well.
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VARep
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« Reply #9 on: November 01, 2020, 04:41:54 PM »

Lol, there are 22 undecideds and all of them are leaning toward Collins. Itís 48-46 Gideon.

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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #10 on: November 01, 2020, 04:43:37 PM »


"Among Savage and Linn supporters, 61% choose Gideon as their second choice while just 14% have Collins as their second choice, the rest list no one or someone else as their second choice candidate."
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Xing
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« Reply #11 on: November 01, 2020, 04:45:24 PM »

This isnít a given for Democrats, but itís probably still seat 49. Senate races aligning more with the presidential race helps a lot of Republicans, but it doesnít help Collins.
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Horsemask
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« Reply #12 on: November 01, 2020, 04:46:56 PM »

By no means a runaway, but I would rather be Gideon than Collins right now.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #13 on: November 01, 2020, 05:05:10 PM »

Savage appears to have one more voter than is tabulated in her first preferences and Linn one fewer than tabulated in his (probably just an error in typing up the crosstabs).

All of the undecided voters lean towards Collins. With leaners:

First Round
Gideon +2
Gideon 48%
Collins 46%
Savage 5%
Linn 1%
Someone else 1%

With RCV (second choices only for "someone else"/Linn/Savage voters) : Gideon +5
Gideon 51%
Collins 47%
No second choice 1%
Someone else 1%
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #14 on: November 01, 2020, 06:44:27 PM »

The Conehad Barrett gambit may not have paid off as much as Collins hoped.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #15 on: November 01, 2020, 07:07:58 PM »

New Poll: Maine Senator by Emerson College on 2020-10-31

Summary: D: 48%, R: 42%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #16 on: November 01, 2020, 09:08:26 PM »

The Conehad Barrett gambit may not have paid off as much as Collins hoped.

I'm not sure if this is deliberate or not, but I said the exact same thing several weeks ago. Voters haven't forgotten about Kavanaugh, the tax cuts, or impeachment-all of the issues which soured them on Collins to begin with.
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gracile
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« Reply #17 on: November 01, 2020, 11:28:16 PM »

A bit better than I was expecting for Gideon, and it appears that she has more upside in RCV.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #18 on: November 02, 2020, 07:28:48 PM »

The Conehad Barrett gambit may not have paid off as much as Collins hoped.

I'm not sure if this is deliberate or not, but I said the exact same thing several weeks ago. Voters haven't forgotten about Kavanaugh, the tax cuts, or impeachment-all of the issues which soured them on Collins to begin with.

I thought you meant the "Conehad" nickname at first. But I think it's pretty obvious that Collins has been defined by her Kavanaugh vote more than anything this election cycle, and voting against Barrett isn't going to absolve her of making that choice back in 2018. With her political career on the line more than ever, it just comes across as cynical, and Maine voters are taking note of that.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #19 on: November 02, 2020, 07:44:45 PM »

The Conehad Barrett gambit may not have paid off as much as Collins hoped.

I'm not sure if this is deliberate or not, but I said the exact same thing several weeks ago. Voters haven't forgotten about Kavanaugh, the tax cuts, or impeachment-all of the issues which soured them on Collins to begin with.

I thought you meant the "Conehad" nickname at first. But I think it's pretty obvious that Collins has been defined by her Kavanaugh vote more than anything this election cycle, and voting against Barrett isn't going to absolve her of making that choice back in 2018. With her political career on the line more than ever, it just comes across as cynical, and Maine voters are taking note of that.

I was referring to the "Conehad" nickname, but I agree with your points otherwise.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #20 on: November 02, 2020, 07:45:45 PM »

This is seat 49.

Jones goes down, that gives us 46. Hickenlooper and Kelly are 47 and 48. This is 49. Cunningham is 50.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #21 on: November 02, 2020, 07:46:18 PM »

The Conehad Barrett gambit may not have paid off as much as Collins hoped.

I'm not sure if this is deliberate or not, but I said the exact same thing several weeks ago. Voters haven't forgotten about Kavanaugh, the tax cuts, or impeachment-all of the issues which soured them on Collins to begin with.

I thought you meant the "Conehad" nickname at first. But I think it's pretty obvious that Collins has been defined by her Kavanaugh vote more than anything this election cycle, and voting against Barrett isn't going to absolve her of making that choice back in 2018. With her political career on the line more than ever, it just comes across as cynical, and Maine voters are taking note of that.

I was referring to the "Conehad" nickname, but I agree with your points otherwise.

I didn't notice that in your post.

Fun fact about the 'Coneheads' movie, by the way: as not great as it is, it was shot and takes place in my town, and is a weird point of pride for us all.
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VARep
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« Reply #22 on: November 02, 2020, 07:49:02 PM »
« Edited: November 02, 2020, 09:13:09 PM by VARepublican »

Ossoff is seat 49, you heard it here first.  Wink
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Coastal Elitist
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« Reply #23 on: November 05, 2020, 02:24:48 AM »

so close lol
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