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February 26, 2021, 02:00:57 PM

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, TJ in Oregon, YE, ON Progressive)
  Reuters/Ipsos: Biden +10 in MI, +6/+7 in PA, +8/+10 in WI
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Author Topic: Reuters/Ipsos: Biden +10 in MI, +6/+7 in PA, +8/+10 in WI  (Read 1263 times)
VAR
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« on: November 01, 2020, 03:01:34 PM »
« edited: November 01, 2020, 03:15:09 PM by VARepublican »

Oct 27-Nov 1

MI
Biden 52%
Trump 42%

PA - 673 LV, MoE: 4.3%
Biden 51%
Trump 44%

With leaners:
Biden 52%
Trump 46%

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2020-11/topline_reuters_pennsylvania_state_poll_w6_11_01_2020_.pdf

WI - 696 LV, MoE: 4.2%
Biden 53%
Trump 43%
Other 2%
Not sure 2%

With leaners:
Biden 53%
Trump 45%

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2020-11/topline_reuters_wisconsin_state_poll_w6_11_1_2020_.pdf
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Rep Jessica
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« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2020, 03:07:07 PM »

Jesus Sad
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2020, 03:07:47 PM »

Biden +10 in Michigan and +7 in PA too.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-election-battleground-poll-idUKKBN27H1PK?taid=5f9f14ee1dea630001ee72a4&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

If Trump wins Wisconsin, it will be the biggest polling miss I've ever witnessed.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2020, 03:08:24 PM »

Wisconsin and Michigan are gone for Trump (probably NE-02 as well, but we have a lot less polling there).  His only hope is to run the table elsewhere.
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Malarkey Decider
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« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2020, 03:08:28 PM »


Jesus Smiley
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #5 on: November 01, 2020, 03:15:16 PM »


Turn from Trump and to him
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Hammy
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« Reply #6 on: November 01, 2020, 03:17:17 PM »

PA looks about even with the national vote.
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Reluctant hardcore partisan Darthpi
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« Reply #7 on: November 01, 2020, 03:17:27 PM »

Looking pretty good overall
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compucomp
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« Reply #8 on: November 01, 2020, 03:23:41 PM »

OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #9 on: November 01, 2020, 03:23:45 PM »

Doesn’t make any sense post-Selzer. Junk it.
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Storr
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« Reply #10 on: November 01, 2020, 03:24:38 PM »

Little did we know that the wall Trump was talking about in 2016 was the Blue Firewall.
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ultraviolet
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« Reply #11 on: November 01, 2020, 03:26:17 PM »

Little did we know that the wall Trump was talking about in 2016 was the Blue Firewall.

Trump rebuilt the blue wall for us. Thanks Trump!
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #12 on: November 01, 2020, 03:27:24 PM »

"Leaners" in this case excludes would not vote as an option and pushes third party voters to pick one of Biden or Trump again, so it's not just pushing undecided voters.

Oct 27-Nov 1

MI - 654 LV, MoE: 4.4%
Changes with Oct 20-26
 
Biden 52% (n/c)
Trump 42% (-1)
Some other candidate 3% (n/c)
Would not vote 0% (n/c)
Not sure 3% (n/c)

Follow-up question:
Biden 53%
Trump 45%
Some other candidate 2%

Five-way ballot:
Biden 53% (n/c)
Trump 43% (n/c)
Some other candidate 2% (n/c)
Jorgensen 1% (n/c)
Hawkins 0% (n/c)
West 0% (n/c)
Would not vote 0% (n/c)

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2020-11/topline_reuters_michigan_state_poll_w6_11_01_2020_0.pdf

PA - 673 LV, MoE: 4.3%
Changes with Oct 20-26

Biden 51% (+1)
Trump 44% (-1)
Some other candidate 3% (n/c)
Would not vote 0% (n/c)
Not sure 2% (n/c)

Follow-up question:
Biden 52%
Trump 46%
Some other candidate 2%

Five-way ballot:
Biden 51% (n/c)
Trump 45% (+1)
Some other candidate 2% (+1)
Jorgensen 1% (-2)
Hawkins 1% (+1)
West 0% (n/c)
Would not vote 0% (n/c)

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2020-11/topline_reuters_pennsylvania_state_poll_w6_11_01_2020_.pdf

WI - 696 LV, MoE: 4.2%
Changes with Oct 20-26

Biden 53% (n/c)
Trump 43% (-1)
Some other candidate 2% (n/c)
Would not vote 0% (n/c)
Not sure 2% (n/c)

Follow-up question:
Biden 53%
Trump 45%
Some other candidate 2%

Five-way ballot:
Biden 53% (n/c)
Trump 43% (-1)
Jorgensen 2% (N/c)
Some other candidate 2% (+1)
Hawkins 0% (-1)
West 0% (n/c)
Would not vote 0% (n/c)

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2020-11/topline_reuters_wisconsin_state_poll_w6_11_1_2020_.pdf
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CookieDamage
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« Reply #13 on: November 01, 2020, 03:36:40 PM »

But selzer Sad
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Reapsow
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« Reply #14 on: November 01, 2020, 03:43:01 PM »

B L U E
W A L L
B I D E N
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Illiniwek
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« Reply #15 on: November 01, 2020, 03:46:49 PM »


bUt iOWa!
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Hammy
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« Reply #16 on: November 01, 2020, 03:59:07 PM »

Doesn’t make any sense post-Selzer. Junk it.

Yep, absolutely lets junk these and bow down and worship the poll that had Trump winning a congressional district 41-40 with 20% undecideds going into election week. Nothing has ever come of putting stock into polls with high undecideds, nothing ever.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #17 on: November 01, 2020, 04:13:20 PM »

Heading for bed. Very nice poll to finish off the day! :-D
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #18 on: November 01, 2020, 04:29:41 PM »

Guessing we get the sunbelt trio tomorrow?
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #19 on: November 01, 2020, 04:30:59 PM »

So overall Nationally looking like Biden leading by somewhere in the 8-10% range and WI and MI are running pretty close to Ntl numbers.

PA still remaining a bit stubborn, but should end up at least Mid Single Digit Biden at Minimum.
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kph14
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« Reply #20 on: November 01, 2020, 04:40:57 PM »

Build the blue wall! Build the blue wall!
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President Johnson
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« Reply #21 on: November 01, 2020, 04:41:58 PM »

Constantly over 50%, which is encouraging. Let's get this done, Uncle Joe! Let's send the crook packing!
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ExSky
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« Reply #22 on: November 01, 2020, 05:18:27 PM »

About what you’d expect in a final poll. That’s the election right there. Dems are gonna be fighting for gravy in Florida/Texas/Ohio/NC/Georgia/Iowa/AZ while the GOP will be fighting to not get trashcanned
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #23 on: November 01, 2020, 06:45:34 PM »

The leaners is questionable, all of them go to Trump and 0 to Biden?
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #24 on: November 01, 2020, 06:48:47 PM »

Doesn’t make any sense post-Selzer. Junk it.

Yes, that one poll negates everything. It's not like states, even neighboring ones with some cultural overlap, are unique, individual entities who still have their differences.
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